where will we be in 3 years time?

[UkNorthampton]

There's a massive market outside of Tesla in the UK alone. Lots and lots of cars in the sub-40K bracket, and plenty above it selling on "brand".

Unless Tesla chip into those greatly, eg. the Model 2 or whatever it is, then I can't see legacy ICE manu's going bust, they'll just change what they make.

Yes, the public charging network is pretty dire, and that'll just slow EV sales greatly. If Tesla offer more models at more price points, then that might help them.

Tesla are aiming at 20 million vehicles by 2030. Elon will be pushing to do that a year or two early. With LFP battery packs from CATL (they're trusted to do the whole pack by Tesla), new CATL factories near Tesla factories, Tesla proving themselves to be a good, dependable customer and Tesla having high margins they can lower, innovative cost cutting tech & giant factories. I think Tesla will get to 20 million in 2028. With robotaxis a possibility, youth & commuters using electric scooters rather than buying cars (especially second car to leave at train station/work all day), that will be a large % of all cars sold. Tesla resale prices will be higher, so there will be a track record of low Total Cost of Ownership (individuals, fleets, lease prices). Legacy are like airlines, they borrow & borrow & ultimately make very little margin. Something bad hits, steady state financial engineering fails & they go under. Legacy are a card tower ready to fall. They won't all go, but most will & China will pick up brands.

 

[GRiLLA]

The EV6, Ionic 5 and Mach-E are all as good as the model Y, they only fall down when you need to drive them more than 230 miles and you need to visit the woeful public charge network where the only two (often 50kw) chargers may or may not be working, occupied or ICDed.

Outside of that they are great cars and every bit as good as the model Y IMO.

Really though? Based on what ?

This is the EV6/Ionic 5 that has such a poor infotainment system that you need to change the clock manually during daylight saving and install updates by downloading them to a usb on your laptop that you then plug into the car. The built in navigation is pretty dumb, just as well most will use CarPlay/Android auto but then have no idea about charging requirements. By not having any form of battery warming their charge rates are compromised in winter to a staggering degree. There is also very little boot space for no apparent reason other than poor design. The designs are striking, I can't get over how much the Ionic 5 looks like a Montego from the side, and that's the nicer of the two.

It's only competitive if you look at price and range, the ownership experience is at least 5 years behind a Tesla.

Sure they are supply constrained at the moment and have a waiting list, but after that I really doubt we will see remotely close to Tesla's sales figures. Polestar's sales were through the floor in the figures published today, and I can't turn on YouTube for seeing their adverts. These Tesla killers aren't even close.

 

[JonB]

Ah yes,the Ionic 5's boot, which is compromised by a high floor and the angle of the hatch. Seemed that if I had a wedge shaped box I'd be fine.. meanwhile, the cheap interior, shonky infotainment system, suspect handling, relatively low range and efficiency, reliance on a poor UK charging infrastructure and nine month waiting list (that's what the dealer said), coupled to price parity with a Tesla when all the options are specified (to bring it close to Tesla M3LR spec), and the writing was on the wall for me.

It said "Buy a Tesla" and despite me griping about Autosteer, lights and wipers I have not regretted doing so.

 

[Campi]

I concur. For a 50k Ionic 5, there was just so much hard plastic in the cabin, unbelievable. Test drove the MY LR in Denmark and was instantly blown away. Checked for panel gaps, paint quality etc and it was definitely on par with legacy manufactures.

 

[yessuz]

I think you're right. The network is where the government should be concentrating on, and it seems like they aren't at all. I just can't see EVs lasting if people who don't have a drive, or live in a flat can't charge their car at home. Hydrogen, will end up taking over in the long term if that can't be fixed.

I have one person I know who recently bought a house with a clause that states they can't own a car. But can use the local "Boris Cars" for hire, which are all electric. I found that quite interesting. Is this the way forward?

Bought hoise (BOUGHT) and cannot own a car!? Who's going to enforce that nonsense?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Bought house (BOUGHT) and cannot own a car!? Who's going to enforce that nonsense?

Probably part of an association. They could own a car, but they wouldn't be able to park it. I can only assume it's somewhere urban where they're expected to walk, ride or use public transportation and car share.

 

[Leejmoff]

Probably part of an association. They could own a car, but they wouldn't be able to park it. I can only assume it's somewhere urban where they're expected to walk, ride or use public transportation and car share.

Oh yeah its in London, part of a new scheme. It's all flats. I should have said instead of house, pardon me.

Just found it interesting.

 

[qwickshot]

Ah yes,the Ionic 5's boot, which is compromised by a high floor and the angle of the hatch. Seemed that if I had a wedge shaped box I'd be fine.. meanwhile, the cheap interior, shonky infotainment system, suspect handling, relatively low range and efficiency, reliance on a poor UK charging infrastructure and nine month waiting list (that's what the dealer said), coupled to price parity with a Tesla when all the options are specified (to bring it close to Tesla M3LR spec), and the writing was on the wall for me.

It said "Buy a Tesla" and despite me griping about Autosteer, lights and wipers I have not regretted doing so.

Not an unexpected repose being a Tesla forum, particularly picking the shortcomings to make the point.

You could just as pick the model Ys shortcomings to make the same point, E.g. the ride is far too hard for most people, the auto lights and wipers are not up to standard and critical functions you need when driving are now hidden in menus. You could also say the boot is compromised due to the shape of the hatch.

At the end of the day, these cars have strengths and weaknesses, including the price. Not wanting to get into a match of Tesla top trumps, the general point is that people have different tastes, preferences and requirements and those three cars in cross shop well against each over. None of them do everything better than their competitors and they all have their shortcomings which could be a dealbreaker.

Back to the original topic of this thread, how do I think things will look in 3 years?

Not much will have changed, Tesla will still be offering a decent package and be selling lots of them. I can’t see the Model 2 being on the market. The market as a whole will probably be about 50% BEV in the U.K. and the public charging network will still be garbage. While there will be lots more chargers, it will not keep pace with BEV sales and is likely to be something that also impacts Tesla.

 

[Jason71]

Really though? Based on what ?

This is the EV6/Ionic 5 that has such a poor infotainment system that you need to change the clock manually during daylight saving and install updates by downloading them to a usb on your laptop that you then plug into the car. The built in navigation is pretty dumb, just as well most will use CarPlay/Android auto but then have no idea about charging requirements. By not having any form of battery warming their charge rates are compromised in winter to a staggering degree. There is also very little boot space for no apparent reason other than poor design. The designs are striking, I can't get over how much the Ionic 5 looks like a Montego from the side, and that's the nicer of the two.

It's only competitive if you look at price and range, the ownership experience is at least 5 years behind a Tesla.

Sure they are supply constrained at the moment and have a waiting list, but after that I really doubt we will see remotely close to Tesla's sales figures. Polestar's sales were through the floor in the figures published today, and I can't turn on YouTube for seeing their adverts. These Tesla killers aren't even close.

I think you mean Maestro not Montego

 

[Js1977]

It is comparable to an iPhone, as in for most a car as a necessity or at the very least a much more convenient thing to have than public transport. It's also significantly more complex than a phone. paying four figures for a phone is clealry a luxury, as is paying 40 grand for a car. Both are "luxury" in cost only. Neither provide an experience that you would describe as "luxury". Both are extremely functional. Almost to a fault.

I agree for sure. However, not all iPhones cost 4 figures and most people even the "rich" aren't buying them outright as is with most cars including teslas on the road. Where I would say they are mostly comparable is that they are both easy to use and live with and retain good value over time because they have a good 5 years+ free software upgrade support that keeps them fresh and you cant really say that about the competition which people tend to keep shorter term and treat them more as disposables.

 

[bingbongbing]

Iphones/apple products are popular because they 'just work'. that's something we can't say. the build quality on apple stuff is also amazing. Again, something we can't say.

Lets hope they keep up with improving the cars.

 

[Stranger Dings]

Tesla is accelerating, so competition is getting further behind. Niche competition will appeal to some, Chinese options might be cheaper, but most objective people will consider Tesla first, even if eventually getting something smaller/cheaper/better towing/easier to get in & out, wanting something different from others.

I think the competition are accelerating and Tesla needs to up its game. It purports to be a luxury brand, but my M3P interior is more Ford Focus than Mercedes.

Mercedes are currently showing off their 600 mile range concept (though it will still probably arrive before the Roadster or Cybertruck)

Mercedes reveals electric car with 600-mile range — The Telegraph

Tesla can’t afford to let others catch up quickly and needs to continue to innovate and most importantly, deliver more and promise less.

Like many, I’m not a Tesla owner for any reason other than currently, the value equation sees Tesla in the lead for me owing to the decent range and the Supercharger network. If another company builds a better car and has access to decent charging infrastructure, I will certainly look elsewhere when it comes time to change. If a really good Mercedes EV comes along, I would seriously consider it. I swapped a cracking ICE Merc CLS for the Tesla and I’d go back to a Mercedes in a heartbeat if it was better.

A Mercedes interior felt special, while the Model 3 doesn’t. Nevertheless, the M3P brings great performance and access to excellent charging. If Tesla can improve its build quality and interior, I would get another. But as a customer, the worst thing is feeling taken for granted. I need to feel that a company genuinely values my custom. I hope Tesla can continue to impress over the next couple of years.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I think the competition are accelerating and Tesla needs to up its game. It purports to be a luxury brand, but my M3P interior is more Ford Focus than Mercedes.

Mercedes are currently showing off their 600 mile range concept (though it will still probably arrive before the Roadster or Cybertruck)

Mercedes reveals electric car with 600-mile range — The Telegraph

Tesla can’t afford to let others catch up quickly and needs to continue to innovate and most importantly, deliver more and promise less.

Like many, I’m not a Tesla owner for any reason other than currently, the value equation sees Tesla in the lead for me owing to the decent range and the Supercharger network. If another company builds a better car and has access to decent charging infrastructure, I will certainly look elsewhere when it comes time to change. If a really good Mercedes EV comes along, I would seriously consider it. I swapped a cracking ICE Merc CLS for the Tesla and I’d go back to a Mercedes in a heartbeat if it was better.

A Mercedes interior felt special, while the Model 3 doesn’t. Nevertheless, the M3P brings great performance and access to excellent charging. If Tesla can improve its build quality and interior, I would get another. But as a customer, the worst thing is feeling taken for granted. I need to feel that a company genuinely values my custom. I hope Tesla can continue to impress over the next couple of years.

Can't read Murdoch rag - paywalled. Is there another source or at least a name to google?

600 miles - which standard? WLTP?

EQS has huge pouch cell battery AFAIK - dangerous, heavy.

Until other OEMs start using safer & more reliable types of batteries, there will be problems, recalls, limits.

Every OEM seems to be following Tesla's designs (big screen), but even more so (bigger screens, must be bigger!). They're not following the EV engineering though. Admittedly, some of the automotive aspects may be better (suspension).

Everyone is welcome to their opinion, but I love the excellent EV tech decisions Tesla made, in the car, the factories and supply chain. I don't consider Tesla a luxury brand - I don't really understand the attraction of brands - I'm too much into engineering, design elegance of the EV aspects. Tesla is scaling to 20 million, far larger than Merc (2.16 million in 2020). Tesla is designing cars for mass adoption, not niches. As Merc struggles - do they continue relying on ICE or switch to EV? Can Merc make a profit? How much of their current assets must disposed of and be written off? These assets are backing their huge debts. It'll be airline-style bankruptcies for many OEMs.

Mercedes can't make enough EVs to be relevant, perhaps they don't have to, but they need to keep alive (perhaps Geely, Li Shufu, BAIC or other Chinese partial owners will help). Merc won't get the cells they need except by over-paying & which supplier would turn down Tesla in favour of Merc or other legacy? Tesla is on the rise and is a great customer. Merc have to re-do their supply chain, the ICE parts bin isn't useful or relevant. Merc need new suppliers. Big upheavals.

The equivalent to many Mercs is probably S/X LR or Plaid (budget, prestige). I can't remember anything special about Merc interiors, but I wasn't driving, let alone the owner.

The more choice, the better, but I wouldn't buy a pouch-cell car personally.

 

[Forty_Two]

I have also been wondering where we will be in 3 years time as that will likely be when I am trying to sell my 2022 M3 and buy my next car. I am worried that the re-sale value will be very low. Why? In the past 15 years I have been on the car owners forum for each of the various marques I was buying and owned and I never came across sooooooooo many who were leasing, in fact I don't recall any, In my time on here I get the feeling it's the majority that are leasing and 2/3 years from now all those cars are going to be in the auction and that's going to push down the price of my car. And there's not a thing I can do about it because I can't get any other marque delivered in under 9 months!

 

[UkNorthampton]

I have also been wondering where we will be in 3 years time as that will likely be when I am trying to sell my 2022 M3 and buy my next car. I am worried that the re-sale value will be very low. Why? In the past 15 years I have been on the car owners forum for each of the various marques I was buying and owned and I never came across sooooooooo many who were leasing, in fact I don't recall any, In my time on here I get the feeling it's the majority that are leasing and 2/3 years from now all those cars are going to be in the auction and that's going to push down the price of my car. And there's not a thing I can do about it because I can't get any other marque delivered in under 9 months!

Normally lease cars were bought with a large discount, that isn't the case with Tesla, everyone pays the same (even Hertz for 1-200,000 cars, they might save the delivery fee if they use their own car carriers, which will help Tesla).

With constant updates, proven reliability Teslas should (and do now) hold their value exceptionally well. Also, it depends who owns the car, Octopus, another lease company or Tesla. It's the diesel BMW/Merc ICE that will be going for cheap. Unusable (clean air zones), undesirable (embarrassingly naff) and expensive to run.

 

[GRiLLA]

Can't read Murdoch rag - paywalled. Is there another source or at least a name to google?

600 miles - which standard? WLTP?

EQS has huge pouch cell battery AFAIK - dangerous, heavy.

Until other OEMs start using safer & more reliable types of batteries, there will be problems, recalls, limits.

Every OEM seems to be following Tesla's designs (big screen), but even more so (bigger screens, must be bigger!). They're not following the EV engineering though. Admittedly, some of the automotive aspects may be better (suspension).

Everyone is welcome to their opinion, but I love the excellent EV tech decisions Tesla made, in the car, the factories and supply chain. I don't consider Tesla a luxury brand - I don't really understand the attraction of brands - I'm too much into engineering, design elegance of the EV aspects. Tesla is scaling to 20 million, far larger than Merc (2.16 million in 2020). Tesla is designing cars for mass adoption, not niches. As Merc struggles - do they continue relying on ICE or switch to EV? Can Merc make a profit? How much of their current assets must disposed of and be written off? These assets are backing their huge debts. It'll be airline-style bankruptcies for many OEMs.

Mercedes can't make enough EVs to be relevant, perhaps they don't have to, but they need to keep alive (perhaps Geely, Li Shufu, BAIC or other Chinese partial owners will help). Merc won't get the cells they need except by over-paying & which supplier would turn down Tesla in favour of Merc or other legacy? Tesla is on the rise and is a great customer. Merc have to re-do their supply chain, the ICE parts bin isn't useful or relevant. Merc need new suppliers. Big upheavals.

The equivalent to many Mercs is probably S/X LR or Plaid (budget, prestige). I can't remember anything special about Merc interiors, but I wasn't driving, let alone the owner.

The more choice, the better, but I wouldn't buy a pouch-cell car personally.

It's not a real car, it's a concept that they theorise could do 600 miles on a charge. This is achieved through all kinds of magic, and not at all by having an insufficient motor, air cooled battery (good luck if you do need to charge), and having a shape that only allows you to carry headless and legless people in the back. They have no interest in actually making it but will 'trickle down' ideas to other cars that won't do 600 miles.

 

[Adopado]

600 miles - which standard? WLTP?

It's a concept car. Some of the the construction is very innovative but the chances of this being able to be mass produced is more or less nil. And with a Nissan style battery cooling system ... i.e. no battery cooling system ...

 

[cryo]

I have also been wondering where we will be in 3 years time as that will likely be when I am trying to sell my 2022 M3 and buy my next car. I am worried that the re-sale value will be very low. Why? In the past 15 years I have been on the car owners forum for each of the various marques I was buying and owned and I never came across sooooooooo many who were leasing, in fact I don't recall any, In my time on here I get the feeling it's the majority that are leasing and 2/3 years from now all those cars are going to be in the auction and that's going to push down the price of my car. And there's not a thing I can do about it because I can't get any other marque delivered in under 9 months!

Leasing firms seriously know their business model and would not saturate the market if they thought it was detrimental to their future value/costs. The UK government only has one way of removing ICE vehicles off the road and that is by seriously increasing running costs which will happen. I can see an Increasing demand for second hand EV's for at least the next five years simply for the vastly reduced fuel/running/maintenance costs.

 

[UkNorthampton]

It's not a real car, it's a concept that they theorise could do 600 miles on a charge. This is achieved through all kinds of magic, and not at all by having an insufficient motor, air cooled battery (good luck if you do need to charge), and having a shape that only allows you to carry headless and legless people in the back. They have no interest in actually making it but will 'trickle down' ideas to other cars that won't do 600 miles.

Thanks, powered by pixie dust then.

Did they mention Banana Box capacity, tow hitch, HAL 9000, psychohistory or 2400 Volt architecture?

 

[bingbongbing]

Normally lease cars were bought with a large discount, that isn't the case with Tesla, everyone pays the same (even Hertz for 1-200,000 cars, they might save the delivery fee if they use their own car carriers, which will help Tesla).

With constant updates, proven reliability Teslas should (and do now) hold their value exceptionally well. Also, it depends who owns the car, Octopus, another lease company or Tesla. It's the diesel BMW/Merc ICE that will be going for cheap. Unusable (clean air zones), undesirable (embarrassingly naff) and expensive to run.

That reads like a daily mail article. Diesel cars are going up in value as they're not selling as many 'new' now. They're not expensive to run. I ran a Mercedes e400d, which was an amazingly clean engine, was quicker than a model 3 in the 'real world', while being so desirable, it sold for £10k more than I paid for it after 9 months and 10,000 miles.