where will we be in 3 years time?

[Jason71]

I predict the charging queues on a Saturday in July will be longer not shorter.

 

[PITA]

I predict lots of battery fires and safety recalls.

Legacy car manufacturers going broke over a rush to impress, without having reliable supply or manufacturing processes.

Governments will start bickering and China will try to take over Europe, with a flood of cheap EV's, Solar, Home Battery, and dodgy internet enabled services.

It'll be a proper Power struggle.

Legacy ICE cars will fall off a cliff, with Insurance Companies writing them off for every minor bump or accident. Supply of new critical components will cease as leading manufacturers realign to new technology, or simply go out of business. The second hand car market will increase in value for repair/replacement parts.

Electric Cars won't get cheaper, old ICE cars will just get more expensive to catch up. Creating a wealth gap (them and us), whereby new services will be offered to 'undeveloped' communities for electric Public Transport, Automated Uber, car share and Time Share Lease Deals.

Property's Council Tax, Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax will be linked directly to Energy Performance Ratings. You wont be able to sell, rent or mortgage your home without a very good EPC Certificate. It'll be worthless until tens of thousands are spent, or demolished & rebuilt.

Council Tax Banding, Car Energy Performance, Home Energy Performance will be financially linked to levels for loan interest rates, mortgage rates, energy utility rates, tax rates, other service charges & area prestige.

They'll be riots, civil unrest, suicides, war, cyber terrorism, blackouts, mass arrests, poverty, debt.

Happy New Year

 

[cryo]

Something to bear in mind here in the not too distant future EV's will start to appear in the second hand market and due to battery degradation of range efficiency charging miles verses time will become increasingly much more important to prospective purchasers of second hand vehicles than it is now on new vehicles. I cannot see any other manufacturer of £K40-60 new family sized cars at the present moment competing in range and economy with Tesla which will be amplified more due to range degradation in the second hand market. There are some stunning new EV's coming out at the moment but none can compete in range or economy to a MIC M3+ other than proposed vapor ware concept cars. Everything we see discussed today will be amplified in the second hand market by a factor of three over the next few years. Tesla is already in the lead and is accelerating away from other OEM's as seen by the improvements to the MIC M3 SR+ and I suspect once we see the Berlin and Texas factories open Tesla will accelerate research on range/economy even faster. As Sandy Munroe says the other manufactures could have easily competed with Tesla but missed a trick and threw their advantage away by concentrating on trying to put Tesla out of business instead of innovating themselves which has given Tesla 10 years lead.

 

[Jonnymack74]

So. Tesla has no wiler sensor? How does the auto wipers work then?

Cameras.. Hence why they don't work properly

 

[qwickshot]

The EV6, Ionic 5 and Mach-E are all as good as the model Y, they only fall down when you need to drive them more than 230 miles and you need to visit the woeful public charge network where the only two (often 50kw) chargers may or may not be working, occupied or ICDed.

Outside of that they are great cars and every bit as good as the model Y IMO.

 

[GRiLLA]

By 2025 I expect most manufacturers will have given up on EVs, having sold very few of the garbage they are offering. The winds of politics will have shifted even further to the right as their elections in 2024 were funded by big oil and we will stay on new 'clean petrol' and pouring public money into researching 'blue hydrogen'.

Having over extended against low future demand, Tesla will have collapsed, and Elon will have left for Mars.

I'm not sure I'm handling being back to work very well this morning.

 

[FlyingTimbo]

We will be able to enjoy lots of winter improvements.

 

[Peter 224]

In the UK EV sales will stall because the low voltage domestic power distribution system will not meet demand and as a result the Government will keep on extending the sales window for PHEVs.
Hydrogen power will be the 2030 rising star.. both fuel cell and ICE.

 

[Leejmoff]

In the UK EV sales will stall because the low voltage domestic power distribution system will not meet demand and as a result the Government will keep on extending the sales window for PHEVs.
Hydrogen power will be the 2030 rising star.. both fuel cell and ICE.

I think you're right. The network is where the government should be concentrating on, and it seems like they aren't at all. I just can't see EVs lasting if people who don't have a drive, or live in a flat can't charge their car at home. Hydrogen, will end up taking over in the long term if that can't be fixed.

I have one person I know who recently bought a house with a clause that states they can't own a car. But can use the local "Boris Cars" for hire, which are all electric. I found that quite interesting. Is this the way forward?

 

[UkNorthampton]

In the UK EV sales will stall because the low voltage domestic power distribution system will not meet demand and as a result the Government will keep on extending the sales window for PHEVs.
Hydrogen power will be the 2030 rising star.. both fuel cell and ICE.

Physics & economics say no to hydrogen for car fuel.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I’m not convinced by this. The “legacy goliaths” have no choice but to change because otherwise they will simply cease to exist. They are spending huge amounts of money on R&D on electric vehicles - and other technologies too.

When I first joined this forum I was ridiculed for suggesting that Tesla would have any meaningful competition in the next TEN years. Just a couple of years on and there are many viable alternatives, and there are lots of new models in the pipeline. In three years time the SuC network might well be opened up to other makes and Tesla will have lost one of its biggest advantages.

You also have to remember that lots of people very rarely use public chargers and are not particularly interested in the latest battery tech or the very best in efficiency. If you just wanted a car that had reliably working windscreen wipers and auto headlights then a Tesla wouldn’t even be on your list.

As for thinking how great they are - Elon Musk won that prize many years ago. He is the undisputed master of over promising and under delivering.

The “legacy goliaths” have no choice but to change because otherwise they will simply cease to exist.

Very likely.

 

[rotor2k]

If national moves to electric cars continue then charging infrastructure will have to have happened, losing Tesla that edge. Tesla are an expensive fashion brand with comparisons to the Apple saga but that doesn't mean that the majority of people car afford them. Huge car companies such as Toyota will have had to switch to pure EV and will make cars to fit all those niches whereas Tesla will continue to aim at the higher paid of society despite past claims of a model 2 etc.
-The continuing stories of failed Tesla promises will alienate non fashion-conscious customers. Let's face reality - the majority of folk on here are far wealthier than average and owning 50K cars is daydream time for average punter.
There are a few ways this can go - wealthier folk moving to a new range of high end cars when charging infrastructure is sorted 'cos they want working cars without quirks and average Joe settling for 150mile range Escorts, Clios, Astras, Aygos etc. Tesla may still command a financial position amongst them but no longer have the volume position. Or true autonomy finally works and folk just order a car when they need one and don't own at all.

I guess the assumption is that Tesla won't adapt to changing conditions and e.g. make a cheaper model once they max out the market they are currently in. But I just don't think that is a reasonable assumption given the track record. Why bother with cheaper models right now when they literally can't make cars fast enough? For all we know the cheaper model is already designed and ready to go... Ten years is a long time and a lot can happen, so I'm not saying you're wrong at all. I'm just really curious to see people's longer-term predictions.

And of course people are angry about FSD (I would be too, if I'd paid for it), but how many other broken promises are there (ok the solar stuff seems sketchy)?

 

[Neilio]

I’m surprised people see Tesla as an ‘apple’ or luxury type item. It’s totally not at all. My work car park is full of teslas, you should have seen the excitement when someone had a Kia EV6 to test(along with orders placed).

They need to keep the supercharger network ‘closed’ and keep expanding it. That’s the only way they’ll grow.

The polestar 2/ev6/new i4/ionic 5, just a few that work better as car, all without the charger network.

Let’s hope, panel gaps get tighter, the charger network grows and stays closed, thinks like wipers and lights start working, looks get better in model refreshes and competition slows down.

Apple isn't a luxury item though? I see them both as similar because they rely a lot on hype and image. They are both simple to use and both do their own things (lightening cables as opposed to USB-c adopted by the rest of the world and mandated in the EU/tesla not using the same auto wipers as the entire rest of the car industry as examples), ignoring the rest of the industry. When you drill down into it the public image is different from the actual product quality.

The public image dictates that Tesla ARE EVs in the same way people think Apple ARE smartphones and tablets. It's painful because there's less of a chance to talk rationaly about these products as people get an emotional attachment to them. For example: I assume the EV6 is a better overall car than the Model Y in the same way the Samsung S21 is a better phone than the iPhone 13. However I wouldn't want to debate either assumption because I know Apple and Tesla have a "fanbase" in a way the 2 Korean companies don't. For every quantifiable fact you could come up with as to why the Korean made product was better, you'd get an absolute swarm of people insulting you and stating why they FEEL the American made products are better.

That's why I equate Apple and Tesla.

 

[Masklin]

Probably still here complaining about build quality, basic deficiencies of Autopilot and invisibility of true FSD all whilst also talking about which other manufacturer's EV we're going to buy instead but never actually do.

 

[Adopado]

So. Tesla has no wiler sensor? How does the auto wipers work then?

They decided that since they already have cameras pointing through the windscreen they would read the droplet patterns and then use the computer to compare that to known representations of actual rain. The process has been refined over time and they are even using AI to improve the results. The expectation was that this would give a much better result. This has not been borne out in practice but one day it is hoped to be as accurate and reliable as a cheapo standard rain sensor!

 

[phil4]

There's a massive market outside of Tesla in the UK alone. Lots and lots of cars in the sub-40K bracket, and plenty above it selling on "brand".

Unless Tesla chip into those greatly, eg. the Model 2 or whatever it is, then I can't see legacy ICE manu's going bust, they'll just change what they make.

Yes, the public charging network is pretty dire, and that'll just slow EV sales greatly. If Tesla offer more models at more price points, then that might help them.

 

[Fox86]

My best guess from the limited view I have.. .

Next 5 years we’ll see more efficient ICE cars, high performance hybrids with smaller engines (e.g more like the new C63 AMG, etc) and more EVs will come to market and continue to develop as they are now. I’d be surprised if we see anything ground breaking or a massive change in the status quo in this time. Tesla will have the advantage in charging network for a while, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s open to all EVs within 5 years as it’ll be a HUGE revenue generator for them.

Even in the 10 years minimum the industry will still be moving towards full BEV, hybrids will probably start to die out as they’re complex and limited in use cases where they actually help reduce emissions. We’ll see a lot of OEMs and Tier 1s, etc struggle, there’ll be buy outs, joint ventures, etc as all the legacy companies try to survive and pivot to what is coming (already pretty evident now).

There will have to be break through in energy storage either new battery technology (solid state, etc) or Hydrogen (seems unlikely at the moment for cars) for something to truly change. There’s only so far we can get with making cars more aerodynamically efficient, lighter and reducing the drive train losses. EVs aren’t really doing much for the environment at the moment, I can’t remember the figures but it’s a lot of mileage before an EV has even offset the emissions from it’s production, before even getting into how the electricity used to charge it is created.

It will also become a lot harder for OEMs to differentiate their cars from others, once every car has a motor, battery and touch screen inside and gets you from A to B what difference will the badge actually mean? Journalists and enthusiasts will talk about driving dynamics, etc (mainly to sl*g off EVs at the moment) but for the majority of people that doesn’t matter. Therefore why would you buy a Mercedes, Tesla or BMW EV over a Chinese or Korean EV for example? We’ll see more cars from Asia in Europe.

Car ownership will get more expensive regardless of ICE, EV, Hybrid. Less people will decide to own cars, driving up the cost for people who do as the government, insurance companies, car companies, etc all try to make the same amount of money from a smaller group of people. More people will choose things like Uber and Zipcar (more of these types of businesses will spring up) and people will change their life style, more working from home, less commuting and changes to where people chose to live, shop and travel to, etc.. .

As someone else mentioned probably sprinkle some civil unrest in there too due to taxes, wealth divide and living costs, etc.

 

[Jason71]

Apple isn't a luxury item though? I see them both as similar because they rely a lot on hype and image. They are both simple to use and both do their own things (lightening cables as opposed to USB-c adopted by the rest of the world and mandated in the EU/tesla not using the same auto wipers as the entire rest of the car industry as examples), ignoring the rest of the industry. When you drill down into it the public image is different from the actual product quality.

The public image dictates that Tesla ARE EVs in the same way people think Apple ARE smartphones and tablets. It's painful because there's less of a chance to talk rationaly about these products as people get an emotional attachment to them. For example: I assume the EV6 is a better overall car than the Model Y in the same way the Samsung S21 is a better phone than the iPhone 13. However I wouldn't want to debate either assumption because I know Apple and Tesla have a "fanbase" in a way the 2 Korean companies don't. For every quantifiable fact you could come up with as to why the Korean made product was better, you'd get an absolute swarm of people insulting you and stating why they FEEL the American made products are better.

That's why I equate Apple and Tesla.

An iPhone is a luxury item because you can get something that does pretty much the same job for a 6th of the price i.e. a basic Android.
Tesla (and most other EV's) are viewed as a luxury items for the same reason. You can get an basic car that will get you from A-B for a quarter of the price. Less if used.

 

[Tony Hoyle]

Tesla is definitely a luxury item.. it's priced and marketed as such. We are in a bubble on these forums full of people who can afford cars like that but the average cost of a new car is only £15k and only peaks at £35k for SUV sized cars. Most people aren't buying new cars either.

Second hand of course doesn't even have a meaningful average.. although looking at the local garage I'd guess around 5k here.

It's not really comparable to iphone.. most people could borrow or save 1k if they really want one.

 

[Neilio]

Tesla is definitely a luxury item.. it's priced and marketed as such. We are in a bubble on these forums full of people who can afford cars like that but the average cost of a new car is only £15k and only peaks at £35k for SUV sized cars. Most people aren't buying new cars either.

Second hand of course doesn't even have a meaningful average.. although looking at the local garage I'd guess around 5k here.

It's not really comparable to iphone.. most people could borrow or save 1k if they really want one.

It is comparable to an iPhone, as in for most a car as a necessity or at the very least a much more convenient thing to have than public transport. It's also significantly more complex than a phone. paying four figures for a phone is clealry a luxury, as is paying 40 grand for a car. Both are "luxury" in cost only. Neither provide an experience that you would describe as "luxury". Both are extremely functional. Almost to a fault.