Unfortunately for Tesla (who make most of their $ on options!) my budget will stretch to a pretty standard car - with maybe one or two options. So do you think the 3 be like the S and X - only available at the start with all the bells and whistles (super fast, extended battery, 4wd, all options at twice the list price)? Or will you be allowed to get a $35k car?
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Will initial model 3's only be pricey signature / 4wd versions?
- Thread starter googlepeakoil
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Jason Bourne
Member
You'll certainly be able to order a Model 3 with zero options, or with barely any. But you'll be at the back of the line for production and delivery until they clear the backlog.
model3fan
Member
Agree with Jason. Unfortunately for me, they'll prob start with the pricier battery option first.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
They've been painfully clear that highly optioned cars will be produced first. Explicitly clear.
Ask anyone waiting for a Model X 70.
Ask anyone waiting for a Model X 70.
do you think you can say... "let me know when you're making the standard ones... and keep me in line for one of the first of those". As I'm in the UK. Ordered on Friday afternoon I think I'm probably around 140,000. But I might be in the top 500 in the UK (given low Model S sales here) - given that UK Tesla is a long way behind Europe and that's behind the US. Maybe by then the company will be churning out standard ones too.
Reason I asked - I'm not quite so sure with the 3. It's being sold as a $35,000 car. It'll be bad publicity if that's not available at the start. Also they're going for high volume and standardisation... so maybe a 2wd car will be on a standard line.
Here is the direct Elon quote from the last earnings call (as far as I know this is the only detail that has been provided):
"And our default plan as we've done in the past is that the initial sales are relatively highly optioned versions of the car. Because obviously, we've got to pay back the investment of all the tooling and everything, so that sort of makes sense to have the higher optioned versions first."
With several hundred thousand advanced reservations I don't think they care if a couple publications try and make some bad publicity about this.
"And our default plan as we've done in the past is that the initial sales are relatively highly optioned versions of the car. Because obviously, we've got to pay back the investment of all the tooling and everything, so that sort of makes sense to have the higher optioned versions first."
With several hundred thousand advanced reservations I don't think they care if a couple publications try and make some bad publicity about this.
I don't expect Tesla to only produce high-spec versions until they are all cleared away, because then you'd be waiting years for a base version. I do however expect a 6-12 month wait after mass production starts up. Then the base version will start trickling out of the factory, and then after that, the volume will increase as new production capacity is brought online.
Basically, I wouldn't expect delivery of a base version Model 3 until the last half of 2018, even if you live close to the factory.
Basically, I wouldn't expect delivery of a base version Model 3 until the last half of 2018, even if you live close to the factory.
diamond.g
Active Member
I also think it depends on the number of folks that go for a base model. It would make no sense to not build the base model if the number of confirmed orders for it is high.
I also found it interesting that in the reveal he explicitly stated that the base model car is a good car. Elon says that they predict the ASP to be ~42k, so a lot of the cars could be base.
It makes no sense to not build any reserved car. And they will. Eventually. It's all a matter of priorities, because the demand is likely to exceed production capacity for several years. This would be my (very rough) estimates for production numbers:
2017: 10k
2018: 100k
2019: 200k
2020: 375k
If we assume there are 150k high spec cars and 200k low spec cars reserved today, Tesla wouldn't need to produce a low spec car until approximately early 2019. And that's with today's reservation numbers. By 2017, the number of reservations may have increased to 750k. If we think 250k are high spec cars, Tesla wouldn't need to make a low spec car until late in 2019.
Now, again, I don't think Tesla will rollout the cars just like this, I think they will start to deliver som low spec cars around summer 2018.
Elon said that all cars will have the supercharger and autopilot hardware. The extra features they support are enabled in software. It's probably cheaper to do it that was, as it was on the Model S.
They will *need* to maximize revenue, especially early on, and particularly if they accelerate their schedule.
The larger capacity battery pack is probably different. The incremental cost is greater. The 40KWh battery pack was a special case. There were very few ordered. The 60KWh packs can't be upgraded to 85KWh in software.
It's too early to worry about it.
They will *need* to maximize revenue, especially early on, and particularly if they accelerate their schedule.
The larger capacity battery pack is probably different. The incremental cost is greater. The 40KWh battery pack was a special case. There were very few ordered. The 60KWh packs can't be upgraded to 85KWh in software.
It's too early to worry about it.
I think, and hope, that your numbers are a little low. I would hope for closer to 200k in 2018, 300k in 2019, and 400k in 2020.
But I'm early in the reservation queue, and I hope to do a "fully" loaded one so I should get mine in early 2018.
favo
P3D+ owner
This. Nobody knows exactly how the ordering and production will go, including Elon. Even if they already have a specific plan, which I doubt, things will probably change. Hence, the lack of specifics being given to us.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
My thought: They HAD a plan.
325,000 reservations later, that plan was scrapped, and they are in constant meetings coming up with a new plan now.
Lots of IFS here, but...If Tesla isn't able to scale up battery production fast enough early on (purely hypothetical), I wonder if they would emphasize producing cars with the standard battery early on to maximize the number of cars built. In other words, would selecting a bigger battery potentially push you back in the queue even if its considered more highly optioned?
Hopefully, its a moot point.
Hopefully, its a moot point.
What people don't realize is the Model 3 is essentially an entry level luxury car. How many of those young kids in line waiting to place a reservation would have the cash to buy a BMW or Audi? Probably not that many. Too many people see 35k plus the tax credit and think they are getting a $28k car. Eventually they will get that $28k car in 2021 after buying a CPO Model 3.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
except those of us already in a entry level luxury car (A3 sedan)....
bought that one fully loaded, so it became a little more than $29,900 once Audi nickel-and-dimed me.
I'm under no illusions about what a Tesla Model 3 will cost me, but if I DO happen to get the tax credit, cool...bonus money.
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