Will initial model 3's only be pricey signature / 4wd versions?

[ucmndd]

I pretty much agree but don't expect to see any big battery RWD models, I doubt that will be an option.

Could be right. Simplifies things a bit.

 

[Yggdrasill]

He wasn't talking about prioritizing overseas Model 3 deliveries, he was talking about prioritizing overseas Model S/X deliveries to prevent from crossing the 200k US delivery threshold toward the end of a quarter.

No, I was also talking about Model 3 deliveries. But obviously the very first cars won't be sent overseas. The first 10k cars should be sufficient to work out any quality issues. And then, after that, if Tesla decides to ensure as many US customers as possible get the credit, they could send most of the production to Europe/Asia for 2-3 quarters, while ramping up production to something like 200k cars/year. Then they cross the 200k line and deliver 100-150k Model 3 in the US in the following 6 months.

Note that I'm not saying that Tesla will do this, I'm just saying that if they prioritize maximizing tax credits, this is how they will most likely do it.

 

[Tezlah]

He hasn't reconfirmed, because he honestly doesn't know.

but maybe you can try this to find out.

Let me google that for you

Thanks. I'm familiar with Google.. I was asking the question to prove a point that nobody knows and Tesla has not stated (post reservation) that higher spec models will automatically take priority regardless of when they're ordered. Yes this happened for S and X when a few thousand were reserved and there's a good chance the 3 production will follow a similar prioritization. As you said, we don't know anything, but I'm enjoying the discussion and speculation.

 

[Chrisuk83]

do you think you can say... "let me know when you're making the standard ones... and keep me in line for one of the first of those". As I'm in the UK. Ordered on Friday afternoon I think I'm probably around 140,000. But I might be in the top 500 in the UK (given low Model S sales here) - given that UK Tesla is a long way behind Europe and that's behind the US. Maybe by then the company will be churning out standard ones too.

Unfortunately we are at the very bottom of the list (rhd).
We will be lucky to see a m3 in the next 2 years, probably closer to 3 tbh

 

[Uncle Paul]

Due to the more than expected number of advanced reservations takes, Elon said he is rethinking his production ramp.

Probably going to more quickly add more parallel assembly lines to increase output. Increase paint and QC volume capability, and order more robots. Hiring, superchargers, and service centers should also come on line faster than originally planned.

Expect that Giga factory has already received their marching orders to move ahead with additional battery production.

Would also expect Tesla to use these advanced orders to raise additional funds to speed everything along.

Anybody need a job...Tesla is hiring.

Believe this new, smaller, Tesla is going to super popular.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

They definitely won't throttle production (i.e. produce less than they have capacity for). If they try to ensure that as many people as possible get the credit, they will probably try to do this by prioritizing overseas markets first, and then when the production rate hits a sufficiently high number, deliver everything they can in the US for a few quarters. The longer they can delay crossing the 200k number, the higher the production rate will be, and the more people will get the credit.

This would actually fit very well with the Norwegian tax issue - after 2017, taxes will start to be phased in. Norway needs as many deliveries as possible as soon as possible.

Why is it that every non-US market seems to think they're going to get an early shot at this car if the production strategy changes?

You're not getting the X yet, are you?

You might get S's and X's in this strategy, but not the 3.

 

[hoang51]

Thanks. I'm familiar with Google.. I was asking the question to prove a point that nobody knows and Tesla has not stated (post reservation) that higher spec models will automatically take priority regardless of when they're ordered. Yes this happened for S and X when a few thousand were reserved and there's a good chance the 3 production will follow a similar prioritization. As you said, we don't know anything, but I'm enjoying the discussion and speculation.

These tweets from Elon are as closest answers as you can get to the type of question you're asking:

Elon Musk on Twitter

Elon Musk on Twitter

I would think a very late order highly optioned Model 3 (say 2018) is probably likely going to cut in front of the base model orders given the way Tesla has been operating to slow the bleeding money.

 

[JTwo]

If I'm reading this correctly, it's not the order is which you made your deposit, it's the amount of bells and whistles you add that determine when you get it. If that's the case, why would a person who just wants a bare bones car camp out overnight to be first in line only to pushed to the back of the line by someone with more money?

 

[Uncle Paul]

I believe that people will be ordering the accessories necessary to go to the front of the line. Getting the $10,000 or so government tax credit will essentially make those items free. Waiting for the base model to become available might be too late to get the tax credit.

There also might be price increases along the way, so maybe the promised $35,000 Tesla will be a Unicorn : >(

While everyone likes the price of a stripper gasoline base car, very few of them are ever really sold. Dealership make little or no money on them, so will not keep them in stock. They might use a stripper car to advertise a low low price, but when you come in to buy it, they always say it has already been sold. The salesman's job is then to move you up to the nicely equipped model, that you really want, for just a few dollars more.

Since electric cars can last a long long time, it might make sense to order one with the options and color you really want, and enjoy it while it is new, and let the others wait in line for the base model.

Reminds me of a salesman that told me "Nobody ever buys a second Yugo" They were super basic cars in the 70's that sold new for under $5,000. People wanting a cheap car were snapping them up, but every time they started them up, you knew why they were cheap. You did not trade them in, but simply threw them away when you needed a better car.

 

[ucmndd]

If I'm reading this correctly, it's not the order is which you made your deposit, it's the amount of bells and whistles you add that determine when you get it. If that's the case, why would a person who just wants a bare bones car camp out overnight to be first in line only to pushed to the back of the line by someone with more money?

My guess would be to be among the first to receive the car optioned the way they want to purchase it.

 

[rckybbby]

Logistically speaking, it will be interesting to see if Tesla blasts out a link to the configurator to all 133k first day preorders, 325k current preorders, or whatever the number becomes by launch to ask them if they want the P90DL and, if the answer is no, say "oh just kidding will get back to you in a year or 2."

I find it hard to imagine it would be all 100k top-of-the-lines first, then all 100k non-performance, then 200k base cars for this reason. Speculation is fun!

 

[1000Down]

Logistically speaking, it will be interesting to see if Tesla blasts out a link to the configurator to all 133k first day preorders, 325k current preorders, or whatever the number becomes by launch to ask them if they want the P90DL and, if the answer is no, say "oh just kidding will get back to you in a year or 2."

I find it hard to imagine it would be all 100k top-of-the-lines first, then all 100k non-performance, then 200k base cars for this reason. Speculation is fun!

This is my feeling in regards to this. They have no clue who will order what and once they send out an invitation to build, they must have a window in which the car will be built. Certainly a Low Spec will be at the back of the window, but I find it hard to believe that they will push off a build for a year or longer regardless of the configuration.

In his tweet, Elon said he expected 65-120k reservations total. At that time, with that expectation, it was business as usually. He said, that with 325k reservations they have to rethink production. Everyone is speaking as if production is a linear relationship. Build all P90D, then 90D, then 60D RWD. That works when building 10k cars in a quarter, but no way this works trying to build 100k. I think there will be multiple lines running, building multiple configurations after the basic chassis just like the big boys. Nummi is plenty big enough.

This will allow them to prioritize by build and region. If someone wants a $40k car and can go get the car (NorCal), they are better off from a cash flow stand point to make those deliveries, then they are to ship a $55k car to New York. They can deliver a lot of cars in a short period of time by focusing on the cars in California.

 

[ArtC]

...has been broken down Zapruder-style.

How many people here know who Zapruder was?

 

[Yggdrasill]

Why is it that every non-US market seems to think they're going to get an early shot at this car if the production strategy changes?

You're not getting the X yet, are you?

You might get S's and X's in this strategy, but not the 3.

I've played around with the numbers, and I don't think you can shift meaningful demand almost regardless of the strategy. The best Tesla can do is ensure they cross the 200k line in the first week of a quarter.

Say we have this production ramp:

Q1 2016: 12.4k Model S, 2.4k Model X, 14.8k total
Q2 2016: 13k Model S, 9.5k Model X, 22.5k total
Q3 2016: 13k Model S, 11k Model X, 24k total
Q4 2016: 13k Model S, 12k Model X, 25k total
Q1 2017: 13k Model S, 13k Model X, 26k total
Q2 2017: 13k Model S, 13k Model X, 26k total
Q3 2017: 14k Model S, 14k Model X, 28k total
Q4 2017: 14k Model S, 14k Model X, 10k Model 3, 38k total
Q1 2018: 13k Model S, 14k Model X, 15k Model 3, 42k total
Q2 2018: 13k Model S, 14k Model X, 23k Model 3, 50k total
Q3 2018: 12k Model S, 14k Model X, 30k Model 3, 57k total
Q4 2018: 12k Model S, 14k Model X, 37k Model 3, 64k total

And if Tesla doesn't shift deliveres between markets, assuming 50% of S/X sales are in the US, and all Model 3 sales go to the US until the full tax credits are gone, we end up with these cumulative US sales:

US Sales
Through 2015: 65.3k
Q1 2016: 8.8k, 74k cumulative
Q2 2016: 11k, 85k cumulative
Q3 2016: 12k, 97k cumulative
Q4 2016: 12k, 109k cumulative
Q1 2017: 13k, 122k cumulative
Q2 2017: 13k, 140k cumulative
Q3 2017: 14k, 154k cumulative
Q4 2017: 24k, 178k cumulative (10k Model 3)
Q1 2018: 28k, 206k cumulative (25k Model 3 cumulative)
Q2 2018: 36k, 242k cumulative (48k Model 3 cumulative)

This ends up with 48k US Model 3 delivered with full tax credits. What if they shift 7k S/X deliveries from Q1 2018 to Q2 2018? Then we end up with this:

US Sales
Through 2015: 65.3k
Q1 2016: 8.8k, 74k cumulative
Q2 2016: 11k, 85k cumulative
Q3 2016: 12k, 97k cumulative
Q4 2016: 12k, 109k cumulative
Q1 2017: 13k, 122k cumulative
Q2 2017: 13k, 140k cumulative
Q3 2017: 14k, 154k cumulative
Q4 2017: 24k, 178k cumulative (10k Model 3)
Q1 2018: 21k, 199k cumulative (25k Model 3 cumulative)
Q2 2018: 43k, 242k cumulative (48k Model 3 cumulative)
Q3 2018: 43k, 285k cumulative (78k Model 3 cumulative)

This ends up with 78k US Model 3 delivered with full tax credits. Now what if they do everything they can to prolong the tax credits, by delivering the Model 3 in Europe/Asia as well as shifting 6k Model S/X deliveries from Q2 2018 to Q3 2018?

US Sales
Through 2015: 65.3k
Q1 2016: 8.8k, 74k cumulative
Q2 2016: 11k, 85k cumulative
Q3 2016: 12k, 97k cumulative
Q4 2016: 12k, 109k cumulative
Q1 2017: 13k, 122k cumulative
Q2 2017: 13k, 140k cumulative
Q3 2017: 14k, 154k cumulative
Q4 2017: 24k, 178k cumulative (10k Model 3)
Q1 2018: 13k, 191k cumulative (10k Model 3 cumulative)
Q2 2018: 7k, 199k cumulative (10k Model 3 cumulative)
Q3 2018: 49k, 248k cumulative (40k Model 3 cumulative)
Q4 2018: 50k, 298k cumulative (77k Model 3 cumulative)

This was only 77k US Model 3 delivered with full tax credits, even though the total number of Teslas who got the credit was 13k higher. Basically just more S/X got the credit.

I think the second scenario for US deliveries will be closest to the truth. With overseas deliveries starting up in the last half of 2018.

 

[RayK]

How many people here know who Zapruder was?

<Raises hand> My birthday is November 22nd.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

How many people here know who Zapruder was?

There WAS a movie in the 90s, for those of us not around for the actual event.....

 

[Sp4rky]

My two cents on production order is this (based off of Tesla History):

-Employees and SpaceX Employees get the chance to configure first. Those who configure a PXXD model, will be the first anywhere to receive this car. They will be alpha testers.
-West Coast configuration emails get sent to the masses. Those who configure PXXD models within a reasonable distance to the factory will be the beta testers.
-Other West Coast PXXD configurations get produced then sent out to areas further away (SoCal, Nevada, Arizona, Oregon).
-Midwest\Central US PXXD Configurations get produced, then sent.
-East Coast PXXD Configurations get produced, then sent.
Rinse and repeat for XXD and XX Models.

This is what Elon means when he is talking about East Coast individuals getting a shot at the tax credit. If you configure a PXXD model, more than likely, you will still receive credit as they will be producing them first. Of course, depending on where they are with the cars sold tax credit number, they may choose to hold off on US sales until they have a significant number of vehicles to batch sell all at once to ensure the greatest tax credit.

I can't imagine they would be shipping any other way as this helps pay for further production of the lesser models. But again, I could be 100% off on this as I don't work for Tesla.

 

[rv1458]

This ends up with 78k US Model 3 delivered with full tax credits. Now what if they do everything they can to prolong the tax credits, by delivering the Model 3 in Europe/Asia as well as shifting 6k Model S/X deliveries from Q2 2018 to Q3 2018?

Your analysis seems pretty reasonable. No idea if it's accurate, but it's in line with what I was thinking as well. I'm just hoping Tesla can figure out a way to up that number from 78k to 100k (I have hard time imagining the number being higher than that, given Tesla's history). The more they produce the earlier I can get my east coast delivery - and the more likely to receive a tax credit. I know I won't be ordering fully optioned because 6 sec. 0-60 is plenty fast and I prefer RWD, but it also won't be base model. I'll probably be right around that $42k avg. that Musk mentioned. Autopilot and Leather are musts, beyond that we'll just see what the other options are. I'm hoping that SC is included though. The reality is that I won't use it that much, but it would be nice to have once or twice a year so I wouldn't have to rent a car.

From a logistics standpoint, Tesla could probably spend a month or more just manufacturing cars for the east coast during the last quarter (of under 200k deliveries). It probably takes two to four weeks for a car to get off the assembly line and into a customer's driveway on the east coast. Combine that with overseas deliveries of the S and X during that quarter and Tesla could have a huge quarter, but with a half of the sales (or more) hitting their bank account on the first day (or week) of the quarter. They could even have a nationwide delivery party at all their stores to celebrate crossing 200k cumulative deliveries. Wouldn't hurt in the PR department either - especially if they were delivering really big numbers on that one single day.