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Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Brad_NC, Mar 2, 2016.
What do you think?
I certainly hope so. I'm foregoing the new Civic Type-R for the M3, so while the Civic might be better performing at nearly every other metric, the M3 should be able to beat it at least in a straight line by a large margin.
Not for a long time. It's a $10,000 upgrade for the Model S, and no one's going to pay 30% more for a car to go slightly faster, and the Model 3 will be RWD only anyway (per a statement by Musk, and it's common sense... which I'll go into now...)
I see all these expected features threads, and you have to remember this thing is a *third* of the cost of a Model S. And it's not like the seatbelts, nuts, bolts, tires, glass for the windshield, sun visors, cupholders, pedals, instrument panels, or a million other things are a third of the cost; this means every fun thing will be gone in the base Model 3. And then probably a lot of bundles (autopilot, supercharging, extended range, AWD) will be piled on to get a $45k-$55k Model 3 that actually makes some profit for Tesla. Any true luxury on top of that may certainly be available, I just don't see it for the initial model year release. Tesla probably doesn't want to even offer a $75k Model 3 because it would skew the perception of it being affordable.
And based on your writeup, you've just exposed the main reason why it COULD be offered...it's a third of the price...aka now you're in the pure profit margin for TSLA. I would not be surprised at all. (Also, I'd love to see the quote where EM said the Model 3 would only be RWD. Since they're going for efficiency this time out, and they've already established with the S that they gain efficiency by adding another motor for the front wheels, RWD-only flies directly in the face of that logic.
I haven't watched the video, but he allegedly said the Model 3 "won't arrive" with dual motor, although it would be an option later.
(anyone know how to embed URL? I'm using text[\URL])
In reading the very first paragraph, I'm thinking what most of us have been all along....
the $35K model will be RWD.
And just as in the S and the X, AWD will be an upgrade.
I'm not really seeing where "RWD ONLY" was mentioned.....only that we should expect that configuration on the "low cost" model, which is absolutely no surprise to any of us (or shouldn't be at this point).
Not to doubt you or anything, but I'm going to go with Elon on this one
Of course the base won't come with AWD. Nor does the base BMW 3 series. I would fully expect it to be an option. I also saw nothing in the article that it wouldn't be offered as an option right off the bat.
As for Ludicrous - probably, eventually. It is huge profit for them. But this car is going to be a pocket rocket without it.
The hardware cost for ludicrous mode is essentially $0, making the option almost pure profit.
I think that pretty much answers the question...
We already heard JB say that the cost of the entire electric vehicle ecosystem is driving down, so it's not like they are strictly relying on cuts to features to meet the $35k price.
And speaking of a "*third* of the cost of a Model S, what is the current cost to make a Model S? If we take what you just said at verbatim, then that would mean that Tesla is still selling Model S's at loss. Haven't seen too much discussion about that recently. Can somebody smarter than me on Tesla speak on current production costs on the Model S?
I think it would depend a lot on the batteries. Tesla needs higher density and lower cost on the cells and in order to do that, Tesla might have to make trade-offs in the cell performance.
Please READ the link you are posting.
No, he does not say it will be RWD (but all - including me - expect it to be), just that it is not AWD in base version.
No, no mentioned that AWD will be an option LATER. It will be an option. Period. So it WILL arrive with dual motors, but not for $35k. It WILL arrive with single motor, but we do not know if it's in the rear or in the front. But probably in the rear.
I gotcha, and rescind my earlier post
Like I said, I didn't (and can't) watch the video, and I don't feel like signing up with Seeking Alpha to read the transcript. When I see "Model 3, Tesla’s first mass market vehicle, will not arrive with dual motor all wheel drive (AWD)", I took that to mean arriving based on time rather than base vs upgrade model. Coupled with the oft-repeated quip that the Model 3 will initially not be full-featured, but instead things will be added over time, and I figured if Elon's looking to rush out a mass-produced Model 3, initial options could be sparse.
But like pretty much everyone else here, I see a lot of value in AWD. It's a no-brainer to have it as an option (and as early as possible) as it serves people up north and those who want more range.
Why wouldn't Tesla offer a feature that is pure profit? From a business perspective it seems like a no brainier. Unless for some reason it make the cost of manufacturing significantly more expensive. If they get 10,000 customers to get ludicrous mode on their model that is 100 million in profit. I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla offered more upgrades like this for the Model 3 and future vehicles. Having the same hardware with multiple tiers that can be unlocked at a cost makes sense if you can do it. You limit complexity of manufacturing while allowing additional revenue to be generated. I would think it would make a lot of sense to offer these unlockable features for near the same price as including them from the factory. This would allow customers to upgrade their cars when their budgets allow it. Off the top of my head here are some 'micro transactions' I think Tesla could offer: Android Auto, Sports (or other) suspension setting, Internet Radio, Bluetooth integration, Navigation, Auto Pilot, Auto Parallel parking, In car Wifi, Tire pressure info, software themes. From a business perspective I think this makes sense. Tesla could sell a car for 35k and generate additional revenue for years to come.
They roughly have an average margin of 25%
My guess is that Elon cannot possibly resist offering an option that makes the best comparable cars in the world (e.g., BMW M3 and Mercedes AMG) look stone age by comparison, while making a tidy profit to boot. I can't imagine why Tesla wouldn't offer it. 0-60 in 2.5 seconds here we come! :smile:
AWD and AWD+L will both be options.
If Tesla is going to continue to punch above its weight then it has to push as much as it can toward the eventual goal of "same performance and range as the original Model S for less than half the price"
Tesla has said time and again that the Model 3 will follow the BMW 3-series and so a range from a stripper model @$35k up to a "M" Performance model in the $85k range. Heck if they put the current P90DL drivetrain into a model that is 20% smaller/lighter that would challenge Veyron's and 918's. They could easily charge $130k for it and people would buy it. Personally, I hope they do that for closer to 85 than 130 but if they can get the 90 pack to fit in between the Model 3's wheels there's no reason not to do it since a lot of the work is already done.
I am hoping they don't. At least not right away. I hope like the Model S they hold off a year or two at least.
If they start off with a crazy fast option (82K-130K) no one in the middle class will be getting one until they clear the first 50K-100K backlog of Ludicrous pre-orders. They will be sending out the highest margin vehicles first. That will be those. There's no way my wife is going to be interested in a car that fast. Her 2001 Toyota Echo is already about to fall apart. It's barely going to make it to 2018 much less 2019-2020 when they finally get around to building the regular highly optioned cars.... if Ludicrous is offered.
Yup, I'd like a Ludicrous option