You needed a poll for this? I think it's pretty obvious way most people on this forum would go.
Tesla can only act if they have solid numbers to back it up. Cast your vote to help!
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Would you be interested in an AP 2.0 retrofit?
- Thread starter supratachophobia
- Start date
Tesla can only act if they have solid numbers to back it up. Cast your vote to help!
It's incredibly presumptuous to think Tesla is going to come looking at polls on TMC to make any kind of business decision.
That's what they said about the NEMA 14-30 adapter. Now I believe that anything is possible. Is there a reason you would think they wouldn't look at a snapshot of owner interest in making a business decision? Owners are willing to pay them money for a product....
AmericanPharoh
Member
Is the 14-30 available now? It's not on the Tesla store page Tesla — Model S > Charging and Adapters
Jon McNeil said to expect it Sept/Oct of this year. I have no reason to think he lied.
whitex
Well-Known Member
The poll is such an ambiguous question. Let's look at two extremes:
1. For $1 you can get to fully antonymous driving
2. For $30,000 you can buy a possibility of improvements, not yet known exactly what, in the future - "sooner than you think" future.
I'm betting the number of people interested will vary wildly between those extremes. It's like asking, would you be interested in the next product Elon will design? I guess it depends on what it is and how much it costs, no?
1. For $1 you can get to fully antonymous driving
2. For $30,000 you can buy a possibility of improvements, not yet known exactly what, in the future - "sooner than you think" future.
I'm betting the number of people interested will vary wildly between those extremes. It's like asking, would you be interested in the next product Elon will design? I guess it depends on what it is and how much it costs, no?
In a similar poll I asked people if they would be interested if I gave them $500.
The findings were surprising: 100 percent answered yes.
The findings were surprising: 100 percent answered yes.
You can roughly figure it out with me. Two wiring harnesses, new windshield, triple camera, two radars: 4k in parts, plus 2k in labor. wk057 did his non-AP to AP 1.0 conversion for 9k plus labor.
But we'll get there, be patient. Lets gauge the interest first, then figure out the tiers people are willing to pay. Besides, I would think Tesla already knows exactly how much it will be, or at least how much it will be worth for them to do. Besides, there is precedent with the P85DL and the Roadster upgrades, that Tesla is willing to do some odd-ball upgrades.
whitex
Well-Known Member
You are forgetting support cost including training all techs to be able to support so many different configurations of cars (retrofits are never bringing the car 100% exactly the same as new production car). Ludicrous upgrade was a good example, look how long it took to train the techs and deploy the upgrade, and that one was simple compared to retrofitting AP sensors, harnesses, onboard computers, etc. NO WAY Tesla does it for $2K over parts cost.
How can you gauge interest on something that people have no idea what it includes, what functionality it provides, and how much it costs? It's like saying let's gauge the interest in a new restaurant for New York, then we'll figure out what food it serves and how much people will pay for it. Nonsense. The poll results reflect this, almost nobody will say "not interested".
I would definitely update if AP 2.0 provided level 3 (system monitors roadway for hazards, instead of the human driver, and informs the driver if they need to take control immediately), and the cost was reasonable compared to trading cars.
If the system is capable of level 3, it is not much of a stretch for it to also do level 4 (SAE defines as system is capable of safe response if driver does not respond to request to intervene).
SAE level 5 (system can do anything a human driver can do) will likely require AP 3.0 (maybe first available at Model 3 launch?)
GSP
If the system is capable of level 3, it is not much of a stretch for it to also do level 4 (SAE defines as system is capable of safe response if driver does not respond to request to intervene).
SAE level 5 (system can do anything a human driver can do) will likely require AP 3.0 (maybe first available at Model 3 launch?)
GSP
At $30k you trade in your car for a new one. At $20k you are probably still better to trade.
At $10k for level 3 - HELL YES!
That's my basic thinking.
I traded my old S to get autopilot. Probably cost about $15-20k to do so but the increased build quality of the new cars etc. made it sensible.
Now I won't trade again until the 2 year mark or so - which lines up with Model 3. But I would definitely upgrade.
However it also took a full year between autopilot 1hardware release and any autopilot 1 capabilities beyond TACC.
The upgrade would be a similar conundrum. You wouldn't pay to upgrade hardware to have the same capabilities. You would pay to upgrade to greater capabilities - demonstrably better. Which would be arriving considerably behind the inception of the hardware. So that weighs heavily on the trade VS. Upgrade
At $10k for level 3 - HELL YES!
That's my basic thinking.
I traded my old S to get autopilot. Probably cost about $15-20k to do so but the increased build quality of the new cars etc. made it sensible.
Now I won't trade again until the 2 year mark or so - which lines up with Model 3. But I would definitely upgrade.
However it also took a full year between autopilot 1hardware release and any autopilot 1 capabilities beyond TACC.
The upgrade would be a similar conundrum. You wouldn't pay to upgrade hardware to have the same capabilities. You would pay to upgrade to greater capabilities - demonstrably better. Which would be arriving considerably behind the inception of the hardware. So that weighs heavily on the trade VS. Upgrade
Yes but that's the thing. Labor.
The one thing Tesla can't do right now is service centers. They are so jammed. And with production ramps going up exponentially it's very telling that Elon said only a doubling is service centers. In the example you had above I think it took him something like 40-50 hours of labor. Even if that was turned into a procedure that was doable in 24, Teslalabor is 175 per hour. So that's $4200. Plus tax. So you're at maybe a realistic $17,500 ballpark.
But they don't have 24 or 40 hours of labor of anyone to give unnecessarily right now and I can't imagine they'd put themselves into that hole. They need all their techs to be available to work on cars that need fixing not upgrading.
Drone Flyer
Active Member
I would like an Autopilot retrofit on my 2013 at no or little cost. Since the early adopters are what made Tesla in the first place, we should be treated to an Autopilot retrofit free of charge or at least a minimum amount, say $5000.00!
Another thing they could do is give us free Next Gen seats or, which makes the most sense at no cost to Tesla, the extended warranty free of charge, since hardly anything goes wrong with the car anyway!
Anyone with a 2012, 13 or early 14 should be eligible.
Another thing they could do is give us free Next Gen seats or, which makes the most sense at no cost to Tesla, the extended warranty free of charge, since hardly anything goes wrong with the car anyway!
Anyone with a 2012, 13 or early 14 should be eligible.
ThatOneRoadie
Member
Note that one of our own, wizkid057, performed his own autopilot retrofit.
He says the price was slightly under $9,000 USD, not counting his own labor time. So $9,000-$10,000 would probably be the absolute bare minimum to retrofit a 2013 Model S with autopilot hardware...
What do i have to do for this $500?
I think you have excellent points. Would a poll broken down by numbered level of autonomy be more useful?
My gut feeling is that because the control systems are already in place for AP v1, a retrofit of additional sensors would be far less labor intensive. I'm also hoping my gut feeling is right.
Elbie
Member
For me, it really depends on what AP 2.0 would bring extra compared to AP 1.0, including future software updates for AP 1.0 hardware.
Based on that, I would:
Based on that, I would:
- Probably consider it if a possible upgrade wouldn't cost much more than € 10,000.-
- Postpone my upgrade decision until at least a few major software updates have come along that clearly show the difference in functionality between AP 1.0 and AP 2.0 (i.e. at least until release 9.0 if not 10.0)
whitex
Well-Known Member
Usefulness is always relative (useful for what and to whom). For the purposes of gauging interest in an upgrade in order to decide whether to invest in developing one, the best question would include both: cost and benefit of the upgrade. Without both you get meaningless results. I've worked with customers a lot in my career - customer are almost always interested in improvements, until you ask them how much they are willing to pay. Ask anyone buying a car - are you interested in more power and lower fuel consumption? The answer is going to be yes from almost anyone. Are you wwillingto pay $40K extra to get that (say but a Model X instead of a Camry), now the answer gets meaningful.
All that said, an even better way to gauge interest is to take deposits, like Tesla did for the Ludicrous upgrade. People vote a lot more accurately with their money, and more importantly only people who have vested interest in the matter vote (no looky-loos and dreamers).
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I fixed that for you.
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