Let's work the calculator... Let's say during a year that I make 2 round trip drives each year from Fresno, CA to Ashland, OR. Each way is about 470 miles and I stop to charge 2-3 times along the way in addition to my overnight charge at home (or at my motel in Ashland) before leaving. The road charging amounts to about 100 kWh of energy each way. Not long ago I would have paid $4 a gallon for 12 gallons in my old 25 mpg sedan to make that trip. The equivalent charging price works out to a little over $.50 per kWh. In all, my 300 miles of "EVgo" charging would work out to about $50 each way or $100 per round trip. Twice a year means $200.
You are proposing that the $200 a year in on-road charging costs would cause me to buy a different car, rent an ICE, or not buy a BEV at all? Seriously?
You are presuming people do the math that way. More likely what they see is that it costs more than gasoline to charge and then they might consider those options which lowers the utilization rate of those stations (and make it unattractive to install).
Now, let's say EVgo pays their electric utility $.25 per kWh. Since they are collecting $.50 per kWh from me that means everyone who stops to add 100 miles of range or ~33 kWh would result in $8 of gross profit. If 5 people a day stopped at each charging stall on average that would be $40 a day. At 365 days a year it would amount about $15,000. If the charger HW and installation plus maintenance cost $75,000 over five years EVgo would break even and then be collecting $15,000 in profits per year minus maintenance until the chargers need to be replaced. With multiple stalls per site and intelligent charging HW sharing similar to what Tesla does plus sharing installation labor across multiple stalls at once and you might be able to shave a year or two off the paydown schedule. Or charge more than $.50 per kWh -- how about $1 per kWh which would be about the price that people paid for their routine weekly gasoline "fix" in Europe a few years ago. That would probably pay off the charging facilities in less than 2 years. Or put in solar panels if that brings down utility electricity costs.
I'm not a business genius but it all seems ballpark plausible to me.
EVgo charges $4.95 a session plus $0.20/minute (this is the statewide cost). A 40 minute (33kWh) session as above would cost $12.95, which works out to $0.392 per kWh. This is for the average station however (not considering a "fair" cost yet for an under utilized station).
Blink DC charging costs $0.69/kWh in California.
Blink - Membership FAQs
I have no visibility on the profit they make, but I highly doubt they make half of the charge in pure profit.
The CPUC report actually gives great insight on costs.
EVgo spent $31 million in development (page 35) on 105 stations with 217 DC chargers (page 51), although I should note those include one L2 AC charger typically.
http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=10411
That averages to $295,238 per station or $140,589 per DC charger (using a 10:10:1 cost split for DC: DC:AC).
I did the math on utilization rates from the chart in page 51 and got the below:
Region: session per day (location), session per day (charger)
San Francisco Bay Area: 9.36, 4.28
San Diego County: 6.09, 2.81
Los Angeles Basin: 5.04, 2.55
San Joaquin Valley: 0.97, 0.51
Total: 6.37, 3.08
So the average utilization per charger is 3.08 per day over the entire network. At $8 per session profit as you assumed (a profit amount which I doubt they make), $140,589/8/3.08 = 5705 days or 15.6 years to break even on development costs alone. For the low utilization stations (for example in San Joaquin Valley) it makes even less business sense.
Of course NRG/EVgo is willing to give a lower rate because they are required by the CPUC settlement to install these stations, but for a business that needs to make a profit, it is a really poor proposition.