Their prediction algorithm is messed up from all of the outages. Don’t rely on it at all.
I see that generation has been coming back online, but they haven’t been increasing load, which is strange.
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15 degrees, snowing [discussion on energy situation in Texas]
- Thread starter CrazyRabbit
- Start date
Their prediction algorithm is messed up from all of the outages. Don’t rely on it at all.
I see that generation has been coming back online, but they haven’t been increasing load, which is strange.
Well based on the past few days the forecasts are not accurate because they are not built to estimate based on the cutbacks in load requested (or required) and the generation forecast cannot be accurate because they cannot know precisely when generation will be available. In other words those forecasts are built based on a 'normal day'. What is useful is knowing the gap between the two lines to the left of the vertical line which shows how much reserve is in the current conditions. It's best for the lines to be 2.000 MW or more apart.
I just looked and the gap is increasing. They should be adding more load.
charlesj
Active Member
Hopefully they are being careful about having that fireplace vented. Seen a few reports already of people either hospitalized or dead from CO2 poisoning. Just shouldn't be happening. When we lived back east and had a gas fireplace when it was really cold it seemed like the cold air always wanted to push it's way down the chimney and no issues with gas supply back then.
Puma2020
Member
My daughter, who lives now near Dallas,
She said: This is NOT a MAJOR SNOW storm... This is dusting...
She is amazed at how poorly the roads are after the storm. Most likely due to lack of proper equipment (and amount of equipment).
Usually within 8 hours after the snow stops, all of the paved roads here in NH are mostly clear.
She did however, get supplies 2 days before and also filled up the bathtub with water (give you 30 gallons or so for flushing during an outage). She lived up here and remembers being without power for up to a week due to ice storms or blizzards.
Luckily, she only lost power once for a few hours for each of the last 2 days.
She said: This is NOT a MAJOR SNOW storm... This is dusting...
She is amazed at how poorly the roads are after the storm. Most likely due to lack of proper equipment (and amount of equipment).
Usually within 8 hours after the snow stops, all of the paved roads here in NH are mostly clear.
She did however, get supplies 2 days before and also filled up the bathtub with water (give you 30 gallons or so for flushing during an outage). She lived up here and remembers being without power for up to a week due to ice storms or blizzards.
Luckily, she only lost power once for a few hours for each of the last 2 days.
A friend of mine lives in the Grapevine/Dallas/Ft. Worth area and I recall when visiting her that she said when it snows with below freezing temps down there she avoids driving due to the hills in her area and the fact there is no salting or plowing of the roads. We both lived in the Chicago area and experienced some of the snowstorms that shut the city down so snow and ice weren't a new thing. She said she's had a few scary episodes getting up some of the residential hills with her car. But she said the weather usually warms up quickly and the ice is gone soon enough. I haven't spoken to her in a while but was wondering how they were doing. The fact this outage is lasting so long for many people still is really hard to comprehend.
A number of California residents have moved during covid to Texas, Elon included, and I just wonder how they are feeling about moving when they did and going through this now. For homeowners I think frozen pipes might be more concerning than trying to stay warm in the end.
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this is a MAJOR snow storm, FOR THE AREA. Worst in decades, maybe ever. We’re not prepared for it because why would we be?
just like when the NE experiences a “heat wave” in the 90s, and were accustomed to stretches of 100+ days here in the summer.
wind today is virtually shutdown, reports are that natural gas production was a fraction due to the cold, wells not producing...
Everyone’s pool equipment is ruined, I imagine people will be waiting months for replacement equipment.
it is carbon monoxide that kills...
it is carbon monoxide that kills...
The blue line above is the forecast. Looks like it is doing what is expected. Texas does have ~31.000 MW of installed wind capacity. But wind power in the winter does not contribute as much as in the summer (kWh wise). As has been said, the cold is pretty much unprecedented and as such we were not prepared weatherization wise. If you look at the load and generation now we are doing much better. I went without power for about 51 hours straight. Temp in the house at time of restoration was 42 degF. We did not freeze any pipes and we do have some plumbing in outside walls.. My house is about 37 yrs old so not necessarily the best sealed or insulated and it is a ~ 2,000 sq ft tract home. So pretty average. We did have water throughout. We did not sleep in our cars. We did bundle up. But we had no pets or kids to worry about. In DFW we had no ice to speak of but further south ice did break trees and put them in power lines. At my brother's near Houston he saw 17 degrees. His house is pier and beam and has no skirt and no pipe insulation (and no wall insulation its old). He would have been fine dripping his water but water was turned off so he froze and busted a pipe.
This cold was also persistent lasting over several days which is unusual. Normally snow is followed by temps over freezing the next day and is completely gone in 2 days. So you have to understand that this is not like the midwest or north. We don't even have basements because the ground very rarely freezes and heaves. I buried my sprinkler system 18" but most are very much shallower.
I will probably weatherize my house this summer. It needs a new front door and better windows anyway.
This cold was also persistent lasting over several days which is unusual. Normally snow is followed by temps over freezing the next day and is completely gone in 2 days. So you have to understand that this is not like the midwest or north. We don't even have basements because the ground very rarely freezes and heaves. I buried my sprinkler system 18" but most are very much shallower.
I will probably weatherize my house this summer. It needs a new front door and better windows anyway.
Of course! I knew that. Not CO2
how silly or bad proof reading of me! Regarding the pool equipment are you referring to pipes in the ground?
Carbon monoxide is definitely a quick killer. Carbon dioxide is also a concern, especially when using unvented combustion appliances like vent-free gas fireplaces, cooktops and heaters, like one might be tempted to do during a power outage.
- 250 - 400 ppm: background (normal) outdoor air level.
- 400 - 1,000 ppm: typical level found in occupied spaces with good air exchange.
- 1,000 - 2,000 ppm: level associated with complaints of drowsiness and poor air.
- 2,000 - 5,000 ppm: level associated with headaches, sleepiness, and stagnant, stale, stuffy air. Poor concentration, loss of attention, increased heart rate and slight nausea may also be present.
- 5,000 ppm: this indicates unusual air conditions where high levels of other gases could also be present. Toxicity or oxygen deprivation could occur. This is the permissible exposure limit for daily workplace exposures.
- 40,000 ppm: this level is immediately harmful due to oxygen deprivation
Friends in Fort Worth just got their power back after a 61 hour outage.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Pool equipment... high loads, serious heating elements, large diameter pipes with little insulation what could go wrong in an area that hasn’t experienced super cold for long stretches?Of course! I knew that. Not CO2
Regarding the pool equipment are you referring to pipes in the ground?
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
I've wondered how that works... I saw that they're pleading with their customers to cancel. So... if you get a $1600 bill you can just say 'I quit' and you're off the hook?
It’s interesting, I’ve lived in New England, pacific NW and even longer in Austin. This cold event has kicked the crap out of anything I experienced in New England. In fact this has been the worst natural-ish disaster I’ve experienced.
Probably simply because I’ve never had to go through it without any power until now. And don’t get me wrong heatwaves in the north are worse than the south... because the equipment is not on the same level to withstand a serious extreme.
Getting stranded sucks anywhere, but it sucks much more when you have the wrong equipment for the situation.
Which brings me to my final point.... I really need to make more friends with Preppers.
No idea. But think for a minute - When generators are getting paid those amounts of $, they certainly have incentive to be able to generate when others cannot.
In other news - I haven't been able to verify this but it looks like at least one of the nuclear units in South Texas (STNP) was down and is restarting. OK, looks like this is legit - South Texas Project Unit 1 tripped at 0537 on Feb 15, 2021 - Atomic Insights
So much for Nuclear saving the day. It just was not weatherized for the conditions. One unit is 1,350 MW. It tripped @05:37 on 02/15 which is pretty close to when my power went off. I am in the DFW area and STNP is in Bay City about 80 miles SW of Houston.
Not quite. They sent out message last week before the storm, informing customers that it was in their best interest to switch providers ASAP. Those who didn’t heed the warning are paying an incredible price for power... up to $9 per kWh.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Yep. For the price of 1GW of nuclear you can have ~15GW of gas turbines. The odds that of those 15GW of turbines at least 1GW will be available is 99.9999%. The odds of that 1GW of nuclear being available is apparently ~75% since Texas lost 1/4th of it's nuclear capacity.
Build gas turbines, build wind, build solar. Use renewables to reduce fuel burn. Use gas turbines when needed to keep the lights on. Use nuclear.... I... I honestly have no idea what nuclear is good for..... jobs? I guess jobs?
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