1M Reservations by Q1 Call

[Larry93428]

1M reservations? I doubt that "new" people will wait that long.
But, wow, what a pretty car! Tesla, do not delay, do not fiddle with the tech. Deliver!
Go Tesla !!

 

[Krugerrand]

Why should Tesla have my depositum in 2-3 years - or longer. How many competitors have in the meantime come up with their version of an EV.

Who else is going to do more good with that 1k for humanity than Tesla? But if that's not a good enough reason for you, that's okay. Maybe you can keep it in the bank and live off the interest.

Personally, I don't car how many other competitors come up with an EV version (other than I'm cheering for the prospects of having a planet of EVs), it isn't going to be nearly as compelling or have as much value per dollar as the Model 3. Currently the only EV with SOME similar metrics is the Chevy Bolt...um...yeah...not interested, but it'll be available in a bit for those who are interested. Anything else that anyone else comes up with now won't be ready sooner than the Model 3.

 

[Krugerrand]

1M reservations? I doubt that "new" people will wait that long.

Really? Let's remind ourselves how long people waited for the Roadster, the S and most recently the X. All those people were 'new' people once upon a time. As I explained in another thread, it's not a big deal to wait. Drive whatever until then; what you have now, fill gapping with a used car or a lease - and those can be some kind of a plugin if it's important to you.

 

[ibdb]

Unless they announce the new plan to accelerate the ramp.

Even then.

Say they figure a way to make 250,000 ≡s a year from the very beginning of production. That's still 4 years to make that many cars, and 5.5 years (generously) from today. How many people are likely to sign on for that right now?

I am very happy to see the reaction to the announcement of the ≡, but at some point the overwhelming enthusiasm would seem likely to meet with a calendar. I could be wrong -- I'm among those who thought that 100K reservations would be a huge success.

 

[ibdb]

Really? Let's remind ourselves how long people waited for the Roadster, the S and most recently the X. All those people were 'new' people once upon a time. As I explained in another thread, it's not a big deal to wait. Drive whatever until then; what you have now, fill gapping with a used car or a lease - and those can be some kind of a plugin if it's important to you.

I have no way of knowing for sure, but it would be interesting to see some sort of demographic comparison between Roadster, S, X and ≡ clients. I know there's considerable overlap, but at 250K+ reservations and climbing, I would think that you would have to be dealing with a very different target market that might have very different expectations.

 

[Krugerrand]

I have no way of knowing for sure, but it would be interesting to see some sort of demographic comparison between Roadster, S, X and ≡ clients. I know there's considerable overlap, but at 250K+ reservations and climbing, I would think that you would have to be dealing with a very different target market that might have very different expectations.

I've seen this argument several times on this board. But when you boil it down to basics, people are people regardless of how much they intend to pay for a car. Some will wait and not complain even a little bit - enjoying every aspect of the experience and journey. Some will wait mostly patiently, getting a bit anxious near the end or when they've got a burning question they can't get answered. Some will *itch and moan the very second the car doesn't show up when they think they should get it. And just about every other combination of scenario between those I've mentioned. The other thing we can be sure of, people can and do change including their expectations. Sometimes they do it willingly and easily, and sometimes they kick and scream the entire time. Whatever. Tesla will sell every Model 3 they can make for a number of years.

 

[Emil]

Even then.

Say they figure a way to make 250,000 ≡s a year from the very beginning of production. That's still 4 years to make that many cars, and 5.5 years (generously) from today. How many people are likely to sign on for that right now?

I am very happy to see the reaction to the announcement of the ≡, but at some point the overwhelming enthusiasm would seem likely to meet with a calendar. I could be wrong -- I'm among those who thought that 100K reservations would be a huge success.

They are going to need to ramp much faster. With the current start of production and rate of reservations it seems quite likely that there will be a 3+ years backlog of 250K/year production.

 

[AB4EJ]

Remember that while M3 is cannibalizing MS sales (and I do agree that this is happening), M3 will also be pulling people from lower price points up into the M3 range. In exactly the same way that MS has been pulling people from the M3 range up into the MS range. Are there more "lost" MS sales or are there more "lost" ICE sales from the lower price range?

This will depend on how much the features & content of the MS differentiate it from the M3. If the M3 has so much content that it is just a smaller MS, there will be a lot of "lost" MS sales. In that case, why pay for a MS, when you can get a M3 and have essentially the same thing? What I'm thinking is that a lot of new things should be added to the MS between now and M3 production to make it worth the big price difference.

 

[neroden]

This will depend on how much the features & content of the MS differentiate it from the M3. If the M3 has so much content that it is just a smaller MS, there will be a lot of "lost" MS sales.

S is a hatchback with a big hatch, 3 is a notchback; S has much more cargo space. I think of the S as the Lincoln Town Car to the 3's Ford.

 

[MikeBur]

Biggest difference between 3 and S/X is that the latter are available today.

The additional cost is out of reach for some, for sure. For ~80k (before rebates/incentives) you can get a pretty nice brand new, inventory, 70D

Helping prospective Model 3 owners understand they can get a lot of the experience they're hoping for today, with a CPO/inventory car, and then trade in appears to be a compelling argument. I was amazed in line how many didn't understand the benefits of long-range EVs, never mind super-chargers or autopilot.

I just wish there was a bounty on CPO referrals to get some of these folk waiting into a Tesla today while they wait! I'd accept tickets to reveal #2 ;-)

 

[Enadler]

I expect reservations to slow down considerably until part 2 which won't be until next fall the earliest. Therefore by Q1 earnings i expect reservations will be between 300k and 400k.

 

[Rockster]

I expect reservations to slow down considerably until part 2 which won't be until next fall the earliest. Therefore by Q1 earnings i expect reservations will be between 300k and 400k.

This is where my prediction lands. I envision:

• Huge spike at the beginning (hindsight, I know)
• Gradual slowdown in reservation rate in the following days/weeks, reaching 400k to 500k by May
  
• A trickle of new reservations will combine with cancellations to achieve steady state or very slight net change for many months
• Another surge of interest at Phase 2 reveal will produce another, albeit smaller spike of 100k or so
• Post-Phase 2 reservations will be be more numerous than post-Phase 1 because the car will be closer and more tangible
• The post-Phase 2 cancellations will be outnumbered by the new reservations and we'll see net positive growth by ship date
• By ship date we'll be at ~750k.
• Tesla will have ramped production to some impressive number that's less than 500k/yr. They'll ship ~300k the first year but they'll time the shipping so that as many customers as possible will receive the tax credit.

 

[MSEV]

Unless they announce the new plan to accelerate the ramp.

That would be exciting...