2012 Q4 Earnings Report thread

[Right_Said_Fred]

... and if they add some much wanted options like park assist, center console, electrically folding mirrors it's even easier to get to the 25% (and at the same time attract more customers). That's one thing companies like Mercedes, BMW and Audi are good at: getting people to buy a car and then having them pick extra options worth 30-40% of the car.

I don't want Tesla to go that far, but they could definitely work a bit more on their margin and at the same time take away some of the second thoughts people might have on buying the car. I know that the lack of park assist, even if only as an option, is not going down well in Europe (with its tight parking spots).

 

[GSP]

I didn't quite get the bit about improved SuperCharger technology.

Did Elon say faster? Through software, or changes in the Superchargers?

Hard to say what Elon is really thinking here, but I took it to mean less costly and more efficient Supercharher installations. If Tesla can connect directly to the utility medium voltage (10-15kV) lines, and eliminate a 500 kVA transformer, they could get their Supercharger network installed for less capital. EPRI has built a proof of concept CHAdeMO charger that does this.

GSP

 

[sp4rk]

That puzzled me too. But it was clarified later on: if they close all stores and fire all sales people they would still be selling enough cars this year to build 20,000 on - and here it comes - momentum alone. So they still need to receive orders to get the 23,000 total they need (3,000 in 2012 and 20,000 in 2013), but they are convinced those orders would simply come in through the internet.

But with the expanding store network, the sales people and marketing they expect to get many more orders than that, also in Europe and Asia. Elon said that 70% of the market for cars in this price class is outside of the United States.

Sorry, I don't "buy" this. Momentum maybe, but, for every sale, surely prospects are going to insist on a test drive? And a test drive is handled at a "store". Who, in their right mind, aside from a serious early adopter would spend $80k+ without sampling the product?
I found, on the call, that Elon completely avoided the question of reservation numbers, cancellations, etc.

 

[brian45011]

Will this conference call audio eventually make it to the public where I can hear it? I don't want to have to register on TM's site to listen to the webcast there.

For the next two weeks, it can be heard by dialing 855 859-2056 conference ID 99105830.

 

[Norbert]

Sorry, I don't "buy" this. Momentum maybe, but, for every sale, surely prospects are going to insist on a test drive? And a test drive is handled at a "store". Who, in their right mind, aside from a serious early adopter would spend $80k+ without sampling the product?
I found, on the call, that Elon completely avoided the question of reservation numbers, cancellations, etc.

I think that simply referred to the stores as a means of attracting customers (as opposed to pure word-of-mouth), and that he said that because some articles were claiming that Tesla's store concept weren't going to work as well as dealerships. It is surely unrelated to whether or not stores are the only means of providing test drives.

One of the points was that Tesla isn't trying to have a long reservation list (anymore). He did say the average waiting time is 5 months right now. Theoretically that should mean that the longest one is about 10 months , and that in this long time, at least another 2 months worth of reservations can be relied on to come in, in addition to those needed to balance any cancellations.

 

[Alpha]

Actually, things are fantastic! Tesla has enough resources to survive another quarter, quite easily and even make a profit. Meanwhile, thousands more of these terrific cars are going to hit the road, more superchargers will be installed (possibly with even better technology and faster charge times.) Word of mouth will spread as more people see and experience these cars. Barring some kind of serious catastrophe like a battery explosion (which I think is highly unlikely) I see some serious additional momentum building around Tesla over the next few months!

 

[K Hall]

Sorry, I don't "buy" this. Momentum maybe, but, for every sale, surely prospects are going to insist on a test drive? And a test drive is handled at a "store". Who, in their right mind, aside from a serious early adopter would spend $80k+ without sampling the product?
I found, on the call, that Elon completely avoided the question of reservation numbers, cancellations, etc.

It was later reported that there were 1,500 cancellations in Q4. Big deal! Unlike most companies demand is not their gap at this time.

 

[JRP3]

BOA downgraded TSLA UPDATE: Bank of America Downgrades Tesla Motors to Underperform on Valuation | Benzinga

 

[DrJohnM]

CNBC about to interview E Musk

 

[Citizen-T]

BOA downgraded TSLA UPDATE: Bank of America Downgrades Tesla Motors to Underperform on Valuation | Benzinga

This is dumb. The multiple they are using makes no sense for this type of stock.

 

[yngwie_2012]

CNBC about to interview E Musk

down 9,5% . what a reaction!!

 

[kinddog]

down 9,5% . what a reaction!!

a buying opportunity gift from the heavens above. don't dilly dally....

 

[carrerascott]

I guess congrats to those who sold before earnings.

 

[aznt1217]

getting punched like elon did with those czech tires.

 

[ckessel]

Hard not to be depressed about the stock, particularly because it seems completely irrational to me. Tesla comes out and says they're in great shape to be profitable earlier than many had forecast and the stock drops. Just a baffling mindset to me that folks would flee thinking earlier profitability means the company is less valuable than it was last week.

I think this rivals the "executives leaving" crater that happened a bit over a year ago, but that recovered the next day. This won't. I wasn't planning on selling for a while anyway, but it hurts losing 15+% of what's more or less my emergency cash.

 

[onlinespending]

Phew! Got very lucky. Bought some after hours last night at around 36. Was able to dump them all this morning at 37, before it took this latest dive.

 

[Citizen-T]

Hard not to be depressed about the stock, particularly because it seems completely irrational to me. Tesla comes out and says they're in great shape to be profitable earlier than many had forecast and the stock drops. Just a baffling mindset to me that folks would flee thinking earlier profitability means the company is less valuable than it was last week.

I think this rivals the "executives leaving" crater that happened a bit over a year ago, but that recovered the next day. This won't. I wasn't planning on selling for a while anyway, but it hurts losing 15+% of what's more or less my emergency cash.

I suppose I should set a sell at $40. Both times it's hit near 40 it's cratered afterwards.

Easy to not be depressed about the stock.

1. Do not invest money that you need (emergency cash) in stocks. Especially not highly volatile highly speculative stocks.
2. Avoid being fully invested, especially at an all time high. These things happen, have cash ready to take advantage of them.

I'm not depressed in the least bit. In fact, I hope it comes down more so I can buy more.

 

[ckessel]

1. Do not invest money that you need (emergency cash) in stocks. Especially not highly volatile highly speculative stocks.

Define "need". I've never been in a situation and never seen anyone outside of millionaires that wouldn't need every dollar of cash if they had a catastrophic illness or even something like 6 month period of unemployment.

I'm not depressed in the least bit. In fact, I hope it comes down more so I can buy more.

Yea, this line of thinking always just completely goes over my head. Why would I ever root against a company I've invested in? If I want the stock to drop, I should be completely divested and shorting it. If I think the stock is going up, I want to be completely invested. That maximizes expected value. If the goal is risk mitigation, that's different.

Mostly the depressed part is because the stock movement is just completely irrational to me by anything I'd think would make a meaningful measure on a company like Tesla (startup, everything is growth based rather than value based). I don't like it when things make no sense to me

 

[mitch672]

Is too late to sell now, so might as well hang on. My 1,000 shares are in my IRA, so it's not money I need per se now, but it would have been nice to have sold it and had $5K more to invest, to increase my shares. I don't like seeing a $5K paper loss for no good reason, and nothing has changed for TSLA, it's just short term thinking and this myopic focus on current earnings that really irks me.
I have no doubt that TSLA will be worth multiples of it's recent high, if they follow through with the plan and become profitable.

 

[Volker.Berlin]

"Buy on rumour, sell on news." The market is irrational but it's surprisingly predictable.