2012 Q4 Earnings Report thread

[Fr23shjive]

Market's reaction is exactly what I was hoping for. Score.

+1. I was hoping for a small sell off too. Hopefully shorts take this opportunity to get out of their position.

On another note, why did they lock the investor discussion thread. It was a great thread to just go into and talk about random topics.

 

[agelston]

This isn't the real reaction yet wait for the conference call.

I only skimmed the report but nothing is a huge red flag.

problems
"Q1 cancellations are likely to remain elevated"

To get the cancelation rate
"As a result, we added more than 6,000 new reservations in Q4, up from almost 2,900 in Q3."
"After deliveries and cancellations, our net reservations at year end, were over 15,000, up from about 13,000 at the end of Q3"
"we delivered pproximately 2,400 Model S vehicles during the quarter"

So, with a 0% cancelation rate, net reservations should have increased (6000-2400)=3,600. Since net reservations only increased 2,000, that means that 1,600 cancellations occurred in Q4. A significant amount. Probably about 1/2 to 1/3 of reservation holders asked to convert to non refundable configs.

Dealbreaker? Not really IMO. It's an expensive car, of course some people have second thoughts.


However this is scary:

In Q4 2012, our negative free cash flow (cash from operations plus capital expenditures) was $102 million.

That's a long ways away from "cash flow positive"

 

[jvonbokel]

Market's reaction is exactly what I was hoping for. Score.

The report is good, why would the market be selling off? The market never makes any sense to me.

I agree with both of these posts.

 

[avatar]

This isn't the real reaction yet wait for the conference call.

I only skimmed the report but nothing is a huge red flag.

problems
"Q1 cancellations are likely to remain elevated"

To get the cancelation rate
"As a result, we added more than 6,000 new reservations in Q4, up from almost 2,900 in Q3."
"After deliveries and cancellations, our net reservations at year end, were over 15,000, up from about 13,000 at the end of Q3"
"we delivered pproximately 2,400 Model S vehicles during the quarter"

So, with a 0% cancelation rate, net reservations should have increased (6000-2400)=3,600. Since net reservations only increased 2,000, that means that 1,600 cancellations occurred in Q4. A significant amount. Probably about 1/2 to 1/3 of reservation holders asked to convert to non refundable configs.

Dealbreaker? Not really IMO. It's an expensive car, of course some people have second thoughts.

yea - the report is actually quite positive. The note about being profitable in Q1 was a positive surprise. Everything else was in line with expectations. There is a TON of volatility in after hours trading.

 

[onlinespending]

The report is good, why would the market be selling off? The market never makes any sense to me.

Good relative to what? Your own expectations? It matters what investors were expecting (and often times there are unpublicized whisper numbers that they look for). And even then forward guidance is a big deal too. And let's not forget that the stock has gone up a huge % over the past couple months largely in anticipation of Q4 being a good quarter. A good quarter may have already been baked into the price of the stock.

 

[Eric from NE]

The report is good if you're in TSLA for your retirement. It's not so good if you're trying to fund this summer's vacation.

 

[NigelM]

problems
"Q1 cancellations are likely to remain elevated"

Discussions specifically about cancellation rate are over here.

 

[Citizen-T]

The report is good, why would the market be selling off? The market never makes any sense to me.

Buy the rumor sell the news. There wasn't enough here to reach "escape velocity". Gravity is pulling us down and there isn't enough here to escape it. We'll see if there is any more in the conference call. I have to admit though, I hope not, I'm still waiting to pick up more shares around $36

 

[agelston]

The report is good, why would the market be selling off? The market never makes any sense to me.

"We ended the year with more than $221 million in total cash, after having made the first quarterly principal payment
of $12.7 million to repay the loan to the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) on schedule"


"In Q4 2012, our negative free cash flow (cash from operations plus capital expenditures) was $102 million"

Two quarters of cash remaining is not a good report. They still don't have a cushion for any surprises. Fear of another offering of shares.


I want to see the numbers from the month of December. Hopefully an analyst asks in the call.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

A good quarter may have already been baked into the price of the stock.

Now, going profitable in Q1, 2013 will have to be baked into the stock price in the next 3 months. So, nothing to worry about in that timeframe

 

[ckessel]

Good relative to what?

Good relative to the whispers that you mentioned. For example, Tesla said possible profitability in Q1, expectations going in seemed to generally be Q3 or later. Tesla basically said it met all the expectations it had set.

Again, the markets baffle me. What sort of report would have generated a good market reaction?

 

[archibaldcrane]

The street was looking for a loss of 53 cents per share for Q4 - that's what was baked in. Since they lost 65 cents per share, that's what is the driver for the after-market price dip.

 

[fluxemag]

Buy the rumor sell the news. There wasn't enough here to reach "escape velocity". Gravity is pulling us down and there isn't enough here to escape it. We'll see if there is any more in the conference call. I have to admit though, I hope not, I'm still waiting to pick up more shares around $36

Now's your chance...I had 36.15x36.20 a few seconds ago.

 

[nygiants242]

Anyone have the dial-in number for the call? Thanks!

 

[Norbert]

"We ended the year with more than $221 million in total cash, after having made the first quarterly principal payment
of $12.7 million to repay the loan to the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) on schedule"


"In Q4 2012, our negative free cash flow (cash from operations plus capital expenditures) was $102 million"

Two quarters of cash remaining is not a good report. They still don't have a cushion for any surprises. Fear of another offering of shares.


I want to see the numbers from the month of December. Hopefully an analyst asks in the call.

"In the month of December we generated positive free cash flow, through growing sales and careful working capital management."

[Emphasis mine]

Cash flow was already positive in December, so I suppose this is a good basis for predicting "slight profit" in Q1, given that they already know about the first half of Q1.

Who cares about the time before that, if it is already going upwards now?

 

[ChrisC]

I was surprised by this:

"Delivery of cars with the 40 kWh battery pack is expected to begin later this summer."

I was expecting it to start a lot sooner than that.

 

[Citizen-T]

Now's your chance...I had 36.15x36.20 a few seconds ago.

Tempting...

 

[dave]

Tempting...

How do you buy stock after hours??

 

[smorgasbord]

35.52 and still dropping...


So, what's the play here and now? Buy Tesla just before Elon spins how great everything is (at 2:30PM PST)?

And, I do see things as going well. Profitable in Q1 instead of Q4 seems like a big deal. I'll guess the concern is their cash balance. Even reservations don't seem bad.

 

[ChrisC]

Anyone have the dial-in number for the call? Thanks!

Go here and follow the steps for registering for the webcast:

http://ir.teslamotors.com/eventdetail.cfm?eventid=125428

In case you literally meant phone call, I don't know if they are offering that. I just checked -- there's no mention of phone access in this thread.