2014 1 QTR predictions/results

[RationalOptimist]

Here you will find provisional Canadian and U.S. sales figures for the Tesla Model S.

Month​	Tesla Model S U.S. Sales 2012​	Tesla Model S U.S. Sales 2013​	Tesla Model S U.S. Sales 2014​	Tesla Model S U.S. Sales 2015​
January​	​	1615 ^ ​	2000 ^ ​	​
February​	​	1598 ^ ​	2509 ^ ​	​
March​	​	1529 ^​	1507 ^ ​	​
April ​	​	2041 ^ ​	​	​
May ​	​	1461 ^ ​	​	​
June​	​	1464 ^​	​
July ​	84 ^ ​	1757 ^ ​	​
August ​	84 ^ ​	1505 ^ ​	​
September​	85 ^​	1071 ^​	​	​
October​	400 ^ ​	2058 ^ ​	​	​
November​	400 ^ ​	1119 ^ ​	​
December​	1505 ^​	977 ^ ​	​

Month​	Tesla Model S Canadian Sales 2012​	Tesla Model S Canadian Sales 2013​	Tesla Model S Canadian Sales 2014​	Tesla Model S Canadian Sales 2015​
January​	---	15 ​	20 ​
February​	---	32 ​	19 ​
March ​	---	111 ​	​
April ​	---	59 ​	​
May ​	---	64 ​	​
June​	---	61 ​	​
July ​	---	43 ​	​
August ​	---	55 ​	​
September​	---	64 ​	​
October​	---	26 ​	​
November​	---	48 ​	​
December​	95	60 ​	​

Year	Tesla Model S U.S. Sales​	Tesla Model S Canadian Sales​
2012​	2558 ^​	95
2013​	18,195 ^​	638
2014 YTD *​	6016 ^​	39

U.S. Source: Automotive News, Tesla quarterly report, subtracting Canadian totals via Matthew Klippenstein
Canadian Source: R.L. Polk via Matthew Klippenstein/GreenCarReports & Tesla
* 3 months U.S. & 2 months Canada
^ unconfirmed estimates, with every reason to believe they're not wildly inaccurate


http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2013/08/tesla-model-s-sales-figures-usa-canada.html​

I would be very wary of basing anything on the 2014 sales numbers here. The US numbers look impossibly high. Would love them to be true, but I think not. In fact, when you look at the main source they quote, Matthew Kippenstein, his actual estimates for US Sales Q1 2014 are 1k/month. See his spreadsheet:
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The numbers for 2014 here are just wrong. ...and it's really not healthy to be fanning the flames of unrealistic expectations!

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I'm trying to figure out, whether there is a bubble in Tesla's stock price. Tesla's market cap is 25B, source http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TSLA
Porsche imo is a quite good comparison, because it is a small premium car sellers and also growing. Porsche's market cap is 24B, source http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PAH3.DE
Porsche sold 38500 cars 1Q2014, source http://press.porsche.com/news/release.php?id=857
Tesla estimates 6400 cars sold 1Q2014, source http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...beat-analyst-estimates-on-model-s-growth.html

So Porche's market cap/cars sold 1Q014 is approximately 600 000$, for Tesla the same figure is 3921875$. So 6 times bigger.

For me there seems to be a bubble.

Porsche is a stable company with no plans for signifcant expansion.. Porsche is owned by VW and VW has Audi.
Tesla plans on continued expansion, including in energy storage. Its automotive target includes being a drivetrain supplier. Its energy storage target is the entire world.
Tesla isn't a bubble stock if you believe in their future success in their target markets. The rest is a matter of playing the stock market.

 

[Benz]

I would be very wary of basing anything on the 2014 sales numbers here. The US numbers look impossibly high. Would love them to be true, but I think not. In fact, when you look at the main source they quote, Matthew Kippenstein, his actual estimates for US Sales Q1 2014 are 1k/month. See his spreadsheet:
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The numbers for 2014 here are just wrong. ...and it's really not healthy to be fanning the flames of unrealistic expectations!

OK, but does 4,000 Tesla Model S deliveries in Q1 2014 in the US sound reasonable to you?

- - - Updated - - -

Total Tesla Model S deliveries in Q1 2014 in Canada is 80.

I hope that the total Tesla Model S deliveries in Q1 2014 in the US will be (at least) 3,920 to make a total of (at least) 4,000 in North America.

And add the 3,000 of Europe, and we get a total of 7,000 for Q1 2014.

That would be great.

 

[JRP3]

If they averaged 583 cars per week then 7K is possible, and if they hit 700 cars per week by the end of the quarter then 583 average should be possible. Assuming 12 weeks of production in the quarter.

 

[Benz]

If they averaged 583 cars per week then 7K is possible, and if they hit 700 cars per week by the end of the quarter then 583 average should be possible. Assuming 12 weeks of production in the quarter.

Anyhow, the expected figure for deliveries in Q1 2014 that was mentioned in the latest Tesla Motors Shareholder Letter (6,400 Tesla Model S deliveries in Q1 2014) will most likely appear to be a pretty conservative expectation/estimate/outlook/guidence, right?

 

[JRP3]

That seems to be Tesla's pattern, and a beat is probably somewhat priced in.

 

[Matias]

Porsche is a stable company with no plans for signifcant expansion.. Porsche is owned by VW and VW has Audi.
Tesla plans on continued expansion, including in energy storage. Its automotive target includes being a drivetrain supplier. Its energy storage target is the entire world.
Tesla isn't a bubble stock if you believe in their future success in their target markets. The rest is a matter of playing the stock market.

I'M not disagreeing with you, but as you said, Tesla needs big growth to meet the expectations which are baked in the stock price att the moment.

 

[Jack6591]

I don't want to cast aspersions on "Automotive News". But I fall into the trust but verify crowd. Who owns Automotive News, and what is their agenda?

GoodCarBadCar.net sources auto sales data mainly from manufacturers, but the AIAMC, Desrosiers Automotive Reports, and the Automotive News Data Center are also of assistance. Other menus which had been featured in this space are now displayed at the Best Sellers page, at the U.S. Segments page, and the Canadian Segments page.

Hybrid Cars Dashboard reports the following U.S. sales:

January 1300
February 1400
March 1300

Nice round ESTIMATES.

 

[hummingbird]

I was part of the 'VIN counters of Q3' group and it turned out to be a disaster. 2013 Q3 beat guidance but not the whisper numbers that got priced into the stock before Q3ER. Thus, I am skeptical of the '9,000' delivery number. TM seemed to clean out all the show rooms and SCs and 'gamed' 4thQ deliveries a bit. So, they were starting Q1 2014 with very little in the pipeline. If TM started the year at 600/week production and ended the quarter with 700/week, average of 650 with 12 weeks of production leads to max production of 7,800 and impossible to have delivered all those vehicles while refilling the loaner/showrooms as well.

While I would like a blow out of guidance, I would be very happy with a beat of guidance at 7,000 deliveries.

2014 Q1 production was likely around 8200 (13 weeks x guess of 630/week)

2013 Q1 produced 5000, guided 4500, sold 4900
2013 Q2 produced 5500, guided 4500, sold 5150
2013 Q3 produced 6500, guided 5000, sold 5500
2013 Q4 produced 6587, guided 6000, sold 6892

2014 Q1 produced 8200, guided 6400, sold [...]

As with 2H 2013, 2014 will be Panasonic cell limited (not Fremont limited)

From page 32 of 2012 10-K: "we have fully qualified only a limited number of suppliers for the cells used in such battery packs and have very limited flexibility in changing cell suppliers."

From page 32 of 2013 10-K: "we have fully qualified only one supplier for the cells used in such battery packs and have very limited flexibility in changing cell suppliers."

This cannot go on like this, something has to change.

 

[Benz]

2014 Q1 production was likely around 8200 (13 weeks x guess of 630/week)

2013 Q1 produced 5000, guided 4500, sold 4900
2013 Q2 produced 5525, guided 4500, sold 5150
2013 Q3 produced 6825, guided 5000, sold 5500
2013 Q4 produced 6587, guided 6000, sold 6892

2014 Q1 produced 8200, guided 6400, sold [...]

As with 2H 2013, 2014 will be Panasonic cell limited (not Fremont limited)

From page 32 of 2012 10-K: "we have fully qualified only a limited number of suppliers for the cells used in such battery packs and have very limited flexibility in changing cell suppliers."

From page 32 of 2013 10-K: "we have fully qualified only one supplier for the cells used in such battery packs and have very limited flexibility in changing cell suppliers."

This cannot go on like this, something has to change.

If we add all the produced numbers, the we get a total of: 23,937.
If we add all the sold numbers, then we get a total of 22,442.
And 23,937 minus 22,442 = 1,495.
Let's say that about a third (say 500) were still in the pipeline at the end of Q4 2013, and therefore still had to be delivered in Q1 2014.
Would that be a fair assumption?

Production in Q1 2014: 650 x 12 = 7,800 is very likely.

Let's assume that at the end of Q1 2014 there were 1,200 Tesla Model Ses in the pipeline (Europe and China).

What numbers do we get?

500 + 7,800 - 1,200 = 7,100 deliveries in Q1 2014

I am starting to believe that the number of Tesla Model S deliveries in Q1 2014 will be at least 7,000!!!

 

[Benz]

Total Tesla Model S deliveries in Q1 2014 in Canada is 80.

I hope that the total Tesla Model S deliveries in Q1 2014 in the US will be (at least) 3,920 to make a total of (at least) 4,000 in North America.

And add the 3,000 of Europe, and we get a total of 7,000 for Q1 2014.

That would be great.

A good quality product (specially a car) will sell in a certain market in even increasing and higher numbers for a number a years in a row.
Therefore I think that sales of the Tesla Model S in the US in 2014 will be more than 20,000 (in 2013 it was lower than 20,000).
In the light of the above, Q1 2014 could very well be 4,000 (or at least 3,920).

 

[Krugerrand]

From page 32 of 2012 10-K: "we have fully qualified only a limited number of suppliers for the cells used in such battery packs and have very limited flexibility in changing cell suppliers."

From page 32 of 2013 10-K: "we have fully qualified only one supplier for the cells used in such battery packs and have very limited flexibility in changing cell suppliers."

This cannot go on like this, something has to change.

There's always two ways to look at things. The most popular human way seems to be to view a situation as 'Oh, no!" The other way here is to see a very strong partnership between Tesla and that one supplier, with a shared future vision.

 

[MikeC]

I'm trying to figure out, whether there is a bubble in Tesla's stock price. Tesla's market cap is 25B, source http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TSLA
Porsche imo is a quite good comparison, because it is a small premium car sellers and also growing. Porsche's market cap is 24B, source http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PAH3.DE
Porsche sold 38500 cars 1Q2014, source http://press.porsche.com/news/release.php?id=857
Tesla estimates 6400 cars sold 1Q2014, source http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...beat-analyst-estimates-on-model-s-growth.html

So Porche's market cap/cars sold 1Q014 is approximately 600 000$, for Tesla the same figure is 3921875$. So 6 times bigger.

For me there seems to be a bubble.

"I'm trying to figure out, whether there is a bubble in Porche's stock price. Porche's market cap is 24B, source PAH3.DE: Summary for PORSCHE AUTOHLDG VZ- Yahoo! Finance
GM imo is a quite good comparison, because it is a small premium car sellers and also growing. GM's market cap is 51B.
GM sold 650000 cars 1Q2014, source March Auto Sales Show Upswing On Incentives | SiriusBuzz
Porsche estimates 38500 cars sold 1Q2014, source http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...-s-growth.html

So GM's market cap/cars sold 1Q014 is approximately 78,461$, for Porsche the same figure is 600,000$. So 7.65 times bigger.

For me there seems to be a bubble."

 

[Matias]

:smile: interesting

 

[jkliu47]

Can we then say TSLA is a 'double bubble'?

 

[Citizen-T]

Obviously, the mistake here is assuming that the stock price reflects the current value of the company. This is not true. The stock price reflects the future earnings of the company. Porsche is not growing much, Tesla is growing phenomenally fast. You need to look out in the future, keeping this in mind to compare their current stock prices.

 

[DaveT]

Obviously, the mistake here is assuming that the stock price reflects the current value of the company. This is not true. The stock price reflects the future earnings of the company. Porsche is not growing much, Tesla is growing phenomenally fast. You need to look out in the future, keeping this in mind to compare their current stock prices.

+1. It's all about future growth and what kind of revenue/earnings you think Tesla will achieve over the next 5-15 years.

Btw, I don't understand why this discussion is in this thread. Oh well. Back to Q1 discussion...

 

[mrdoubleb]

I would like to echo those who were cautioning about repeating unrealistic numbers on this thread. If those US delivery estimates are real and we add them to the "known" European figures, this will be the biggest blowout quarter ever. However, those totals are borderline physically impossible and are WAY above guidance. Like 20% above.

Time and time again we've seen articles referencing this blog getting into the news cycle and then our friends here referencing those articles as source. This usually drives crazy expectations to a whole new level, producing insane whisper numbers on Wall Street and gets us burned.

Consider this: if that +15-20% is true, Tesla will have to pre announce. If they don't, that's proof deliveries are lower. (Though I do expect them to beat guidance).

Does anyone know the details of the legal requirement to pre announce? At what number (@how much higher or lower than guidance) does that kick in? At what time (how many days after end of the quarter or ahead of ER) do they have to do it?

 

[Benz]

The California New Car Dealer Association (CNCDA) issues a report every quarter showing all the sales figures of all the cars in the state of California.

Here is a link to their website: http://www.cncda.org/

My question is: "Are there more states in the US who also have such an organisation (dealer association), and maybe they also issue such quarterly reports"?

 

[RobStark]

The California New Car Dealer Association (CNCDA) issues a report every quarter showing all the sales figures of all the cars in the state of California.

Here is a link to their website: http://www.cncda.org/

My question is: "Are there more states in the US who also have such an organisation (dealer association), and maybe they also issue such quarterly reports"?

All do but not all have those reports available online to non-members. They usually come out weeks after the quarter ends.

Here for example is the WA report http://www.wsada.org/media/outlook.htm