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2014 1 QTR predictions/results
- Thread starter Chickenlittle
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- TSLA
DaveT got e-mail from TM in response to his question on the subject. They indicated that the expense will be several millions, and will be fully applied to Q1 for all current and future repairs.
Barclays Capital (Barclays plc (LON:BARC)) and Gartner Inc. (IT) analysts told The LA Times that Tesla moved an estimated 4,600 Model S vehicles in the U.S. in the first three months of 2014 -- 1,600 in March and 3,100 in January/February.
DailyTech - As Sales Level in the U.S., Tesla Model S Charges Ahead in Europe, China
Plus European sales of 3056, would put Q1 at 7,656.
It would be nice if The Barclays guess was right. Wednesday draws nigh.
DailyTech - As Sales Level in the U.S., Tesla Model S Charges Ahead in Europe, China
Plus European sales of 3056, would put Q1 at 7,656.
It would be nice if The Barclays guess was right. Wednesday draws nigh.
I think we are all getting ahead of ourselves here with a lot of wishful thinking from the group think mentality. Per the above flyer, it seems Tesla needs to hire people for the 2nd line...hiring and training will take weeks at the very least only if they get a great turn out at this job fair. My feeling is that we are 3 months ahead of ourselves and that most conversations on this board the last few days may apply to the Q2 earnings call in August but that we shouldn't expect any surprise on this Q1 call.
The discussions on here remind me too much of the days leading up to Q3 which I was a part of.
if anyone lives in the Northern CA area it would be great if they could stop by this job fair and report back what they can find out.
Gotta agree with this as much as I would like to see delivery numbers north of 7K. Our only Tesla data points pointed out by DaveT and others refers to production rates of 600+/week to start Q1 and 700/week leaving Q1. TM has a history of beating guidance numbers. They did so in Q3 2013. However, the whisper number picked up on TMC by several publications/analysts based on VIN assignments was priced into the stock pre ER and despite beating TM guidance the share price went down and cost many TMC members a few $$.
TSLAopt: If you don't mind sharing have you placed any options based on your Q1 expectations? I have listed mine upstream but you are much better at positioning than I.
Wow, but that article seems to be setting up 7600 deliveries to be something disappointing. Now maybe we are in trouble because that would be a highly optimistic number in my mind. Well, my hedge is having cash to buy more if we drop.
I have not placed any new options bets for Q1 expectations...I am sticking with my long term shares and Jan 16 250 LEAPs primarily (with a small amount of Jan. 2015 300 calls as more of a speculative play). I do wish I had some excess cash (which I don't) because then I would be ready to pounce if the stock really tanks (15-50 points) in the days after this Q1 earnings report. I believe there is a substantial chance that will happen but then a strong rebound will occur over the next couple months after that drop.
i think there is also a substantial chance the stock won't move more than 10-15 points either way after this report.
Lastly, I think there is a small chance that there will be some unexpected good news in the report causing the stock to go up 10-30 points.
because of these views and the expensive implied vol built into these options i am not comfortable doing anything...if I had excess cash I would actually sell some 150 or 170 puts probably right now one or two months out.
My gut feel is that Q1 numbers will play second fiddle to guidance. At least for this CC the market is going to react to how Elon answers questions about the Gigafactory and China. Elon's handling of the CC may well be a pivotal moment for Tesla.
I don't think they will update guidance on this report as they are ultra conservative in updating guidance historically based on the past 5-6 earnings reports and I think they will wait for Q2 to play out and update it in the Q2 earnings call.
this is why I think we are all really way too hopeful from this earnings call...especially when all the headlines start hitting with what Adam Jonas from MS hinted at (lower Q1 deliveries in North Americathis year vs. last year Q1)...shorts will have a field day with that.
I am not gong to make the same mistake from Q3 where I started jumping on the bandwagon with all the other bulls on here to boost each other's positive expectations/hopes to seem more like a reality than pure speculation. I hope I am wrong about this, but I'm trying to learn from past mistakes we all made on here in Q3.
I would be the first to agree, that we need to be cautious. Q3 has really taught everyone a lesson - though to me, that one really feels like a set-up. But the big difference is, whatever the intentions were, those unrealystic whisper numbers were the result of VIN counting, which everyone here knew was insane. This time around, the main cause of the optimism is the EU thread and the 3k deliveries they are calculating. All that is sourced from official government registration data, not reading tea leaves (i.e. VINs).
Having said that, the only country we do not have trustworthy numbers from is the USA. All the usual sources from the States have proven to be extremely unreliable in the past. So that's a big unknow. Yet, if the MS guess of 4600 US deliveries checks out, that should bring us about 1k cars above guidance.
My biggest fear is no "real" news on the Gigafactory and X. If we don't get dates, a sense of progress in the guidance on those two, even a 10% beat on deliveries may not help us stay above $200, let alone revisit 250+.
Just my 2 cents.
Having said that, the only country we do not have trustworthy numbers from is the USA. All the usual sources from the States have proven to be extremely unreliable in the past. So that's a big unknow. Yet, if the MS guess of 4600 US deliveries checks out, that should bring us about 1k cars above guidance.
My biggest fear is no "real" news on the Gigafactory and X. If we don't get dates, a sense of progress in the guidance on those two, even a 10% beat on deliveries may not help us stay above $200, let alone revisit 250+.
Just my 2 cents.
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Good observation. Thinking critically (of the business and of the crowd) is an important skill to have for both short-term and long-term traders.
Also, cheerleading usually doesn't do much good & adds no value. In fact it's almost always counterproductive.
I agree. It seems in terms of importance to stock movement we have the following.
1. Gigafactory
2. Guidance
3. Model X
5. China
6. Produced/Delivered #'s
7. Model E
8. Possible Lathrop News?
With all of these nearly equally weighted but skewed to the top.
here is a question though for you mrdoubleb. What would your opinion of the scenario if we got no "real" Gigafactory news and X news, but we have a 15-20% beat in numbers with a 15%-20% increase in guidance?
Well, again just my 2 cents, but based on my novice experience with the stock market, there are short term and long term effects.
In case something extremely good or bad is announced you have a "shark feeding frenzy" up or down for a few hours/days, than people start digesting the news, expert analysis gets into the news cycle and things settle down.
In your scenario above I can see something slightly similar happening, but it really depends on the headlines and what the bots get out of them.
1, I can see the first headlines, quotes from the ER focus on the beat and we would go up real quick. Then, as the "usual suspects" start cranking out the articles about how the GF is just vaporware, a bubble, Musk's clever way to push the stock up and make 2 billion, TSLA could get punished over the next few days. A 15-20% beat would probably prevent going under, say, 180, but I don't see us sustaining 200+ or at least not by much.
2, And as much as I hate to play the weatherman and say "we've got 50% chance of rain today", if those first headlines focus on "no news" on GF/Model X and just mention the beat later on, or start to emphasize the "plateauing of US sales" (and force us to comment on every single one of them and explain what production constrained means), we could go down real quick, despite the beat.
I think the headlines, and especially the first headlines - particularly catchy ones - make or break what happens after an ER. Online media lives form the clicks. If someone comes up with a snarky/catchy headline, all other outlets start copying it. In 15 minutes your inbox is filled with the same stupid headline rehashed over and over again. It's like an alternate reality is born...
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it seems like tesla put aside 1000 cars out of the production in q1 as a transit to europe but what doesn't make sense to me is why 7400?
13 weeks with 600 per week(if not more) gets tesla to 7800!
i won't be suprised if it end with tesla selling 6800(6400 estimate + that 400 margin that telsa saves to beat that number)
I personally think q3 will not replay. I think the expectations were high going into q3 and that set the stock up for such a fall. However I do think there is a strong risk of the stock maintaining a190 to 210 trading range which would mean selling puts is the way to go. That being said I also bought calls for September because I think q2 will be great if q1 does not surprise. Also I still have cash to buy LEAPs if we find ourselves st 150 our so.
