2015 Q1 Discussion thread for Delivery numbers, Earnings Report and Conference Call

[chickensevil]

I commented on this in the Stationary Storage thread. It doesn't have to have anything with being "green" or not. It makes sense for all fossil utilities to go hybrid. I like to call it a "plug out hybrid".

Right, it is just important to point this out I feel, because so many articles were released about this being just for the "rich and greenies" and it is a totally practical product. Which is great, because that means there is real hope for the future that people will go greener, not because it is "cool", or because they care about the environment, or because some government agency is forcing their hands, but because it is practical and cost effective over other choices. This was a decent concern regarding stationary storage, that the only forcing hand behind this was governments... and without it, there would be no push, and that means this market isn't likely to sustain itself.

Because it is a practical and cost effective product over instead maintaining a whole extra power plant (most likely coal), that requires tons of maintenance and people working there, and fuel costs... nevermind the environmental impact, this means this is a crazy good business venture for Tesla to enter and here they are dominating at 250$/kWh!!! That is a phenomenal price.

 

[techmaven]

Is DaveT around? Are we having a hangout tonight?

If not, then maybe FluxCap or I can host it if there is interest.

 

[FredTMC]

Best TSLA Conference Call Ever.

yep. So far! I didn't like the first answer on MX but got better from there

 

[Johan]

Right, it is just important to point this out I feel, because so many articles were released about this being just for the "rich and greenies" and it is a totally practical product. Which is great, because that means there is real hope for the future that people will go greener, not because it is "cool", or because they care about the environment, or because some government agency is forcing their hands, but because it is practical and cost effective over other choices. This was a decent concern regarding stationary storage, that the only forcing hand behind this was governments... and without it, there would be no push, and that means this market isn't likely to sustain itself.

Because it is a practical and cost effective product over instead maintaining a whole extra power plant (most likely coal), that requires tons of maintenance and people working there, and fuel costs... nevermind the environmental impact, this means this is a crazy good business venture for Tesla to enter and here they are dominating at 250$/kWh!!! That is a phenomenal price.

Yes! And you can dimension the plant to run at close to 100% all the time, with the batteries as the peak buffer. A lot more cost effective than building a plant with far larger maximum output but running on average way below 100% and having to ramp up and down.

 

[joefee]

I see $$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[FredTMC]

I thought he said 2500 corporate or utility inquiries for PowerPack, and each with an average of 10 "Packs" per order....would be 25,000 packs at $25,000/pack is $625 Million of potential revenue in the first WEEK of interest in PowerPack. Another 60,000 inquiries in to PowerWall would be $180 Million - total potential first week if they had them on the shelf: $800 Million.

gulp. Damn!!

 

[chickensevil]

Yes! And you can dimension the plant to run at close to 100% all the time, with the batteries as the peak buffer. A lot more cost effective than building a plant with far larger maximum output but running on average way below 100% and having to ramp up and down.

With peak shaving in mind, maybe Nuclear isn't so dead after all? I mean Nuclear works for the price *if* you can run it 100%... So if you scope Nuclear around that 100% level and then use batteries to balance out the curve then it might become a good choice there. I mention this not to derail the thread, but because I saw quite a few articles about the death of nuclear due strictly to the batteries. I just want to say that doesn't seem to clear as you could use the batteries to make your Nuclear more efficient if you wanted.

 

[pmadflyer]

Increasing Gigafactory output is huge news.

What do you mean by this. Did they say that the GF will be able to produce more than the stated 35 gWh in cells or 50 gWh packs a year?

 

[Cattledog]

Direct sales to utilities. Wait, that's not fair, they should have to sell through a stationary storage dealership (at least here in Texas).

 

[Johan]

What do you mean by this. Did they say that the GF will be able to produce more than the stated 35 gWh in cells or 50 gWh packs a year?

No they said because of the overwhelming apparent interest in storage they have to consider building the GF larger, already before it's been built.

 

[lorih]

It is like the analyst forgot that Tesla builds cars, suddenly they all are 'worried' about utilities. Maybe they should listen to Solar City call.

 

[hockeythug]

And now the leasing is coming full circle and is shocking analysts.

 

[sub]

smoothing out of sales and avoiding the end of qtr rush to meet numbers so there may be bigger fluctuations. Remember this, Bears will be all over it as soon as that fluctuation is "lower".

 

[pmadflyer]

No they said because of the overwhelming apparent interest in storage they have to consider building the GF larger, already before it's been built.

Thanks for the clarification, so they want to produce more, but the GF will have to be expanded. That is a great problem to have. This also means that they can survive a delay in the model 3 without cells piling up, hopefully. I really hope they don't delay it though.

 

[AudubonB]

Blast - lost the conf call. Well, time to get back to work, I guess - am burning daylight! (A capital offense around here). Will check back here tomorrow to learn what I missed.

 

[hobbes]

Elon just said that they are going to do less of an end-of-quarter rush in the future, as it is not good for customer experience. Think this was discussed quite a bit somwhere on TMC.

 

[Bgarret]

And now the leasing is coming full circle and is shocking analysts.

Question - "That looks like 44% margins....." Answer - (more or less) "Nothing different, just starting to include previous leases." Nice to have leases starting to work FOR Tesla

 

[FredTMC]

Have we had a question session yet from Adam J? I don't think so.

 

[mmccord]

Have we had a question session yet from Adam J? I don't think so.

speak of the devil

 

[sub]

Have we had a question session yet from Adam J? I don't think so.

wow, nice timing. Here comes Adam.