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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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From today's WSJ article about Elon's push to regulate AI. Last three paragraphs:

"During his talk, Mr. Musk also was asked about the pressures that come from the valuation of Tesla, whose stock has risen more than 50% this year ahead of the introduction of a new sedan. The market capitalization has made Tesla bigger than Ford Motor Co. and, at times, larger than General Motors Co. Those auto makers, unlike Tesla, are profitable and sell many more vehicles than the niche luxury brand.

Mr. Musk reiterated that shares of Tesla are trading at a price “higher than we have any right to deserve” and that the high price reflects the optimism of the future of the company, he said.

“Those expectations sometimes get out of control,” he said. But Mr. Musk said he is committed to making Tesla a success. Besides selling shares to pay for taxes, Mr. Musk said he is avoiding selling company shares. “I’m going down with the ship,” he said."

Great sound bite, Elon! Sheesh. Also Elon's calls for industrial policy regulation of AI, what the heck? Can you stick to making cars and rockets Elon?
 
From today's WSJ article about Elon's push to regulate AI. Last three paragraphs:

"During his talk, Mr. Musk also was asked about the pressures that come from the valuation of Tesla, whose stock has risen more than 50% this year ahead of the introduction of a new sedan. The market capitalization has made Tesla bigger than Ford Motor Co. and, at times, larger than General Motors Co. Those auto makers, unlike Tesla, are profitable and sell many more vehicles than the niche luxury brand.

Mr. Musk reiterated that shares of Tesla are trading at a price “higher than we have any right to deserve” and that the high price reflects the optimism of the future of the company, he said.

“Those expectations sometimes get out of control,” he said. But Mr. Musk said he is committed to making Tesla a success. Besides selling shares to pay for taxes, Mr. Musk said he is avoiding selling company shares. “I’m going down with the ship,” he said."

Great sound bite, Elon! Sheesh. Also Elon's calls for industrial policy regulation of AI, what the heck? Can you stick to making cars and rockets Elon?
I agree he needs to stop saying the stock is overpriced. Major facepalm stuff. I disagree that he should keep to cars and rockets, though. Let him preach on any tech he likes!
 
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I believe this supports my prediction earlier this year that Model 3 and Model Y prices will decline gradually in the coming years.

VW says its Tesla Model 3-fighter will be $7,000 to $8,000 cheaper

I expect Model Y to be brought to market in 3Q19 at $40k ASP (including options), reach volume production in 4Q19, and its ASP to gradually decline to $35k by 1Q21.

I expect Model 3's ASP to decline to $35k (including options) gradually by 1Q20.

VW has vaporware right now. It means nothing and is simply an attempt to steal Tesla's thunder. Any car company can release any statement claiming they are developing an electric car that is better than the Model 3 and cheaper. Words are cheap. It means nothing until prototypes exist.

I don't know that Tesla will ever lower prices. They might, but I don't see a definite reason they would.
 
VW has vaporware right now. It means nothing and is simply an attempt to steal Tesla's thunder. Any car company can release any statement claiming they are developing an electric car that is better than the Model 3 and cheaper. Words are cheap. It means nothing until prototypes exist.

I don't know that Tesla will ever lower prices. They might, but I don't see a definite reason they would.
After the emissions debacle vw is linen for vaporware...

Other manufacturers with paper Tesla killers are great, it gives credence to Tesla and it's mission. Also more EVs in the end are better and there are larger markets for EVs coming-not in the US.
 
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VW has vaporware right now. It means nothing and is simply an attempt to steal Tesla's thunder. Any car company can release any statement claiming they are developing an electric car that is better than the Model 3 and cheaper. Words are cheap. It means nothing until prototypes exist.

I don't know that Tesla will ever lower prices. They might, but I don't see a definite reason they would.

1m cars per year is probably doable for Volkswagen. They seem to be planning it out, building a charging network, possibly building their own gigafactory etc. We'll see, but why take Tesla's word at face value, but not Volkswagen? 1m/year by 2025 isn't a very ambitious goal anyway... would give them a ~3-5% market in all-electric space, down from 12% today.
 
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1m cars per year is probably doable for Volkswagen. They seem to be planning it out, building a charging network, possibly building their own gigafactory etc. We'll see, but why take Tesla's word at face value, but not Volkswagen? 1m/year by 2025 isn't a very ambitious goal anyway... would give them a ~3-5% market in all-electric space, down from 12% today.

If VW was really serious they would be building a charging network worldwide, not just in the US where they are legally required as a result of their felony conviction.

We take Tesla seriously because they do in fact have a worldwide charging network and are in fact building a massive battery factory. While VW is not building a massive battery factory.
 
1m cars per year is probably doable for Volkswagen. They seem to be planning it out, building a charging network, possibly building their own gigafactory etc. We'll see, but why take Tesla's word at face value, but not Volkswagen? 1m/year by 2025 isn't a very ambitious goal anyway... would give them a ~3-5% market in all-electric space, down from 12% today.

I'm results-oriented. Don't tell me, show me. I've followed Elon Musk long enough to know he exaggerates, but he achieves his goals. I wish he wouldn't exaggerate because that actually gives something for people to focus on instead of focusing on the amazing accomplishments. For example, he recently claimed you can drive anywhere in the US, except Alaska, with the Supercharging network today. But that's not true. North Dakota is still out of reach. The network is amazing and will get to that point, but it's not there today.

But I believe much of what Tesla says because they are actually doing it and have past successes to show. The Model S in my garage can be seen, touched, and driven. It's real. I was also a bigger fan of SpaceX before I started focusing on Tesla.

My point is: Elon Musk delivers. Not usually on the schedule he sets for himself, but close and with great results.

VW? The most recent thing in my memory is that they are frauds. Why would I believe the word of a fraud? If any other car maker wants to be taken seriously, show up and put up results. The Bolt is the best competitor we've seen so far. Kudos to GM for getting that done.
 
VW has vaporware right now. It means nothing and is simply an attempt to steal Tesla's thunder. Any car company can release any statement claiming they are developing an electric car that is better than the Model 3 and cheaper. Words are cheap. It means nothing until prototypes exist.

I don't know that Tesla will ever lower prices. They might, but I don't see a definite reason they would.

The VW concept is a golf cart, $8 drop in price sounds about right. The golf cart segment is going to get crowded with low margin competitors in the next several years as legacy automakers have no choice but to enter this overcrowded space. The other option is to go head to head with Tesla in the luxury segment, a simple research on Cadallac's ELR will simply scare any legacy automaker away from facing impossible. I don't anticipate Tesla entering the golf segment for a very long time. They'll have problems keeping up with demand for M3 & M4 for years, if not decades once a truck & semi is added. Tesla can also capture the upper luxury market by creating a Bentley/Royce killer should they choose. With the ludicrous 2.4 sec hack, we can also capture the super sports car arena (Ferraris, Lambos) with ease if Elon decides on making a grand entrance.
 
After the emissions debacle vw is linen for vaporware...

Other manufacturers with paper Tesla killers are great, it gives credence to Tesla and it's mission. Also more EVs in the end are better and there are larger markets for EVs coming-not in the US.
The fact that they need to come out with a "Tesla Killer" is SAD for the said company. Yiu boys were 100 year ahead WTF happened?

Until the car is produced it's all cheap talk.
 
If VW was really serious they would be building a charging network worldwide, not just in the US where they are legally required as a result of their felony conviction.

We take Tesla seriously because they do in fact have a worldwide charging network and are in fact building a massive battery factory. While VW is not building a massive battery factory.

I believe Volkswagen will soon announce a battery factory of their own as well, but will not be able to ramp up as quickly as Tesla (multiple Gigafactories by 2020/21).
 
I believe Volkswagen will soon announce a battery factory of their own as well, but will not be able to ramp up as quickly as Tesla (multiple Gigafactories by 2020/21).

I believe we will soon see another press release about VW's intention to build a battery factory at some point in the 2020's and stop Tesla from gaining market share.
 
I believe this supports my prediction earlier this year that Model 3 and Model Y prices will decline gradually in the coming years.

VW says its Tesla Model 3-fighter will be $7,000 to $8,000 cheaper

I expect Model Y to be brought to market in 3Q19 at $40k ASP (including options), reach volume production in 4Q19, and its ASP to gradually decline to $35k by 1Q21.

I expect Model 3's ASP to decline to $35k (including options) gradually by 1Q20.

"Volkswagen chief strategist Thomas Sedran said that they were aiming for the vehicle to be about $7,000 to $8,000 cheaper than the Model 3, which would mean about 25,000 euros (~$28,000)."

So what are the consequences personally to Mr. Thomas Sedran if this vehicle is not produced (when exactly?!?!) and if not between $7000-$8000 cheaper with apples to apples feature set at that point in time.

I am 100% certain, the consequences will be less than if I tell my wife I will take out the trash tomorrow night but fail to deliver.

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Point is - why does the market fall for this crap. Potential and an empty sack is an empty sack. SN1 is whole lot farther than anything else legacy auto has achieved thus far. But expect a $10 point gap down Monday morning based on this 'game changing' announcement that 'competition has arrived'.
 
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