I am wondering if it could have something to do with decoders installed to decode the sound? Maybe @Krugerrand had one that actually worked?I'm keeping that to myself - for personal profit reasons.
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The curious thing is that I never heard Gene asking any questions on ERs. I presume he is crystal clear on what is going on with the business.
Eventual end point with the present 3 models
a. 10,000 model 3 per week @ $43,000 = $430,000,000 , @25% gross margin = $107,500,000 gross margin per week
b. 2000 model s + x per week @ $100,000 = $200,000,00, @ 25% gross margin = $50,000,000 gross margin per week
c. total gross margin per week : $157,000,000 per week
let assume 49 weeks of production
d. yearly gross margin = 49 * $157,000,000 = $7.639,000,000
e. If $2.5 billion is net profit, then a p/e of 40 implies a mkt cap of $100 billion.
f. $100 billion divided by 180 million shares, is about $555 per share.
g. given Elon's 100% certainty about 25% gross margins and production of 10,000 per week model 3
by the end of next year, then this follows. Elementary Watson.
a. 10,000 model 3 per week @ $43,000 = $430,000,000 , @25% gross margin = $107,500,000 gross margin per week
b. 2000 model s + x per week @ $100,000 = $200,000,00, @ 25% gross margin = $50,000,000 gross margin per week
c. total gross margin per week : $157,000,000 per week
let assume 49 weeks of production
d. yearly gross margin = 49 * $157,000,000 = $7.639,000,000
e. If $2.5 billion is net profit, then a p/e of 40 implies a mkt cap of $100 billion.
f. $100 billion divided by 180 million shares, is about $555 per share.
g. given Elon's 100% certainty about 25% gross margins and production of 10,000 per week model 3
by the end of next year, then this follows. Elementary Watson.
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Unless Tesla is already working with authorities on approval of the Level 3 Autopilot...
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Yes, I agree with you. I think Tesla is ahead of what some here think. All of the steps they've taken seems to point to what you just said.
Aside from the 2028 completion date, the most ridiculous thing about this project is that it is a consortium of 17 (!) partners.
One can guess they will be as nimble and swift as they ... could be.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
A new massive battery gigafactory is coming to Germany
"break ground in the fourth quarter of 2019 and reach full capacity in 2028"
There must be something lost in translation. 2028? STF!
"break ground in the fourth quarter of 2019 and reach full capacity in 2028"
There must be something lost in translation. 2028? STF!
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
I doubt it. They were hearing the same drop outs on site.I am wondering if it could have something to do with decoders installed to decode the sound? Maybe @Krugerrand had one that actually worked?
Not all of the 150M is fixed costs. Initial labor hours per car would be significantly higher and cost more labor. Also I suspect the cars just can't pass QA, or needs a lot of redo to pass would also be high. The parts costs for those are burdened on those passes QA. This was something we saw with X in the first two Q.
jhm
Well-Known Member
By 2028 the world could be adding upwards of 1000GWh capacity in a single year. Good on them to think ahead and contribute 35GWh to this. We need that kind of forward leaning.A new massive battery gigafactory is coming to Germany
"break ground in the fourth quarter of 2019 and reach full capacity in 2028"
There must be something lost in translation. 2028? STF!
Article gave me false hope. I was hoping there was hundreds of thousands of M3 cancellations so I can get my Model 3 next week.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I agree with your sarcasm, but the specific number you included is unreasonably conservative.
Even excluding any alien dreadnought improvements, with the subsequent four Gigafactories starting to come online likely by end-2019 and at full scale likely by 2021/22, Tesla alone may be producing close to 0.8-1TWh by 2022.
I have long predicted that Tesla will command about half of global battery manufacturing capacity for the foreseeable future, and the future is pretty foreseeable in this space as these recent extremely long-term announcements also show.
So it's likely that your 1TWh by 2028 production will prove conservative by 2023. With the massive cash generation from Tesla starting in 4Q18, I'll be surprised if they stay at 8-10 Gigafactories; I think they'll move on to "maybe 20" Elon mentioned at the shareholder meeting quicker than many here realize.
fixed:
Aside from the 2028 completion date, the most ridiculous thing about this project is that it is a consortium of 17 (!) partners.
One can guess they will be as nimble and swift as they ... could be.
Aside from the 2028 completion date,
the most ridiculous thing about this project is that it is a consortium of 17 (!) partners.
One can guess they will be as nimble and swift as they ... could be. ;
Hence the 2028 completion date
My recollection is that when a video of Jeff Dahl speaking to a technical audience was available for some days and then pulled, he (or someone commenting thereafter) indicated that with his new partner ship with Tesla, he would next be researching to achieve the same
improvement in lifecycle with the NCA batteries used for Tesla EVs.
While experience has proven Tesla's NCA batteries do not loose capacity as miles accumulate as fast as originally thought, improving them as much as he has with NMC will be a major breakthrough. Especially for the Semi. With further improved NCA batteries, new Tesla cars with them should be good for more lifetime miles than most original owners will ever reach. I'm not sure, but 500K may be reached before degradation becomes significant. It's incorrect that of Dahl's research work is with NMC batteries. His lab has specialized equipment designed and built in house, that can test batteries through many cycles and then accurately project the much longer term degradation profile. One takeaway I had viewing the video is that Dahl's research and innovations have brought him to a level of battery research maturity that allows his lab to realize major improvements in much less time than has been the case over the past 20 years.
I'd be willing to bet that in a year Tesla will announce their next NCA chemistry change will show a big lifetime increase due to his NCA work.
It's also possible that Dahl's work and that of NanoOne may compliment each other and yield bigger than expected energy density improvements.
mmd
Active Member
I think many of those 63k cancellations over the last 16 months resulted in MS and MX purchases over the same period. We have many examples of this in the forum itself. Some recent cancellations probably bumped up the recent MS&MX order rate, which then became part of the Q2 highlight
But the important factor we know now, is that over 16 months ( Apr 3, 2016 to Aug 3, 2017), net M3 orders increased by (455-373)k. A monthly net reservation rate of 5125 cars. Much lower than what can sustain 500k M3 production a year. Once the subsidies end and more competitors arrive, this rate will evaporate much faster.
apparently elections do indeed matter- to everyone:
EPA chief Scott Pruitt can publicly downplay CO2's role in global warming, EPA panel concludes
"<
The EPA's Scientific Integrity Committee convened a review panel to look into Pruitt's comment following the Sierra Club's complaint.
The panel concluded that Pruitt did not violate the Scientific Integrity Policy because it "explicitly protects differing opinions," according to a draft letter to the Sierra Club from the panel. The draft was obtained by conservative media outlets including the Washington Examiner and Washington Free Beacon.
"In his response, the Administrator expressed his opinion regarding contributors to global warming and called for more debate, review, and analysis as a precursor to any future EPA policy decision on the matter," wrote Thomas H. Sinks, Jr., director of the EPA's Office of the Science Advisor, in the letter.
>"
EPA chief Scott Pruitt can publicly downplay CO2's role in global warming, EPA panel concludes
"<
The EPA's Scientific Integrity Committee convened a review panel to look into Pruitt's comment following the Sierra Club's complaint.
The panel concluded that Pruitt did not violate the Scientific Integrity Policy because it "explicitly protects differing opinions," according to a draft letter to the Sierra Club from the panel. The draft was obtained by conservative media outlets including the Washington Examiner and Washington Free Beacon.
"In his response, the Administrator expressed his opinion regarding contributors to global warming and called for more debate, review, and analysis as a precursor to any future EPA policy decision on the matter," wrote Thomas H. Sinks, Jr., director of the EPA's Office of the Science Advisor, in the letter.
>"
Am I correct in thinking your calculations are to show what stock price would be once this level of production and profit is reached,
excluding whatever future year expectations may be at that point? If tha is the case, then based on current SP, I would guesstimate
a SP of at least 1,000 by that time, with $4 - 500 from the expectation of even much higher revenue and profits in the 3 years to follow.
On the other hand, when the wait time drops down to a few months, cars are available to sit in and test drive and more configurations are available, the reservation rate will accelerate massively. Also when Tesla stops anti-selling the Model 3. And "competitors"? When are those going to arrive? 2025?
I've had my doubts about demand for the Model 3 being sufficient for a production greater than 500k/year, but these past few days have convinced me that demand should at least be closer to 1 mill/year.
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I think many of those 63k cancellations over the last 16 months resulted in MS and MX purchases over the same period. We have many examples of this in the forum itself. Some recent cancellations probably bumped up the recent MS&MX order rate, which then became part of the Q2 highlight
But the important factor we know now, is that over 16 months ( Apr 3, 2016 to Aug 3, 2017), net M3 orders increased by (455-373)k. A monthly net reservation rate of 5125 cars. Much lower than what can sustain 500k M3 production a year. Once the subsidies end and more competitors arrive, this rate will evaporate much faster.
The earnings report noted that an average net of 1,800 Model 3 reservations per day have been received since the Friday handovers. Keep in mind that the income tax credits will be reduced gradually. Nevertheless, they've played no part in my decision to reserve a Model 3. I would not consider any of the products that competitors have so far proposed.
Reviews of the Model 3 have been great so far. Meanwhile, when hundreds of thousands of Model 3's are in the hands of owners, I would not be surprised if positive word-of-mouth results in a tremendous number of fresh reservations, even if tax credits have run out. Good word-of-mouth is really the most effective form of advertising for any product, and that appears especially true for Tesla.
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