2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[kenliles]

This really pisses me off. damn.

Maybe this'll help

EPA walks back delay of Obama air pollution rule

 

[RobStark]

Aside from the 2028 completion date, the most ridiculous thing about this project is that it is a consortium of 17 (!) partners.
One can guess they will be as nimble and swift as they ... could be.

17 Germans walk into a Munich Beer Hall........

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

View attachment 239487

YUP - no bear manipulation at all.

That's why I stopped posting on SA. They pander to their writers, who are mostly short.

 

[Reciprocity]

No, that's one of the things that we would include. We would aim to switch out the wiring on this for – the one that coming is wiring on is for a redundant flex circuit. That's on more in the order of 100 meters or so. But then we'd, obviously, aim to do that both for the Y, if it's called a Y and the Model 3 as well.

I totally missed the very last part of this from the call yesterday. I heard that the Y would be based on the model 3 instead of a completely new platform and I heard that they would still be doing the simpler wiring, but I totally missed that they would apply that to the 3 as well. This is pretty big actually because the wiring has to be one of the most manual parts of the process and simplifying it from 3km -> 1.5km in the 3 down to 100m, though I thought it was originally 300m, for the Y and the 3. They talked a lot about less people required for the model 3, this would mean even less human hours needed. I wonder how long it will be until we start to see this type of innovation.

 

[hobbes]

Don´t know if this was posted already, didn´t have the time to read everything here:
Hedge funds lose more than half a billion on wrong-way bet against Tesla

 

[Rarity]

A good collation of advertising costs that other car companies bear, but Tesla does not.

Tesla Still Doesn't Need Paid Advertising to Make Sales

 

[ValueAnalyst]

US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker

Of note, Nissan will run out about the same time as well. Also of note, Toyota, Ford and BMW are not far behind. One big difference is that Tesla is going to land about 200,000-400,000 cars during the phase out. Those others will not get anywhere near that and they will have squandered a great opportunity to have the government and tax payers help jumpstart their EV efforts.

I had not realized this very important point. Thank you.

 

[Reciprocity]

I had not realized this very important point. Thank you.

It is missing some manufactures, I think a few more are close as well. MB and VW.

 

[jhm]

I agree with your sarcasm, but the specific number you included is unreasonably conservative.

Even excluding any alien dreadnought improvements, with the subsequent four Gigafactories starting to come online likely by end-2019 and at full scale likely by 2021/22, Tesla alone may be producing close to 0.8-1TWh by 2022.

I have long predicted that Tesla will command about half of global battery manufacturing capacity for the foreseeable future, and the future is pretty foreseeable in this space as these recent extremely long-term announcements also show.

So it's likely that your 1TWh by 2028 production will prove conservative by 2023. With the massive cash generation from Tesla starting in 4Q18, I'll be surprised if they stay at 8-10 Gigafactories; I think they'll move on to "maybe 20" Elon mentioned at the shareholder meeting quicker than many here realize.

Hmm, it sounds like you are talking about cumulative capacity. I'm talking about incremental capacity added in a single year! At any rate, it was not meant to be a serious number.

 

[Dennisj00]

@mmd and 'others'. ...There are alreasy some who like their Bolt more than their Model S. It is too soon to say how this will evolve once subsidies expire for Tesla but not for others...

I'd like to meet one or two of these people! And I challenge either of you to buy, rent, beg or steal a Bolt and we'll take a 500 or 1000 mile trip against my 75 S and see who gets there first!

Any takers?

 

[hobbes]

There was a Diesel summit yesterday with Government officials and execs of the big German auto to discuss how to deal with the cars which are surprisingly not as clean as everyone thought. As ridiculous as it sounds, the manufacturers got away with software updates. Which will cost them 500 million EUR . 5 million cars x 100 EUR. Sounds like an expensive data plan, hm ?

 

[Krugerrand]

But the important factor we know now, is that over 16 months ( Apr 3, 2016 to Aug 3, 2017), net M3 orders increased by (455-373)k. A monthly net reservation rate of 5125 cars. Much lower than what can sustain 500k M3 production a year. Once the subsidies end and more competitors arrive, this rate will evaporate much faster.

Yep. Sky is falling. End of the world. Demand problems galore.

 

[22522]

Yep. Sky is falling. End of the world. Demand problems galore.

I do think it is important to keep the pump primed and running (purchasing traffic in the stores) next summer.

The key is tons of testimonials from people about the economic sense the car makes, with a testimonial time constant to drive traffic in the summer. That means a lot of $35K versions in the hands of the middle class in December and January and February.

What Tesla really needs is a recommendation from this guy:

The Total Money Makeover: A Proven Plan for Financial Fitness

What would it take to actually get that?...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

TSLA at UBS
Q2 EPS beat due to ZEV credits (see FR). The stock is up
premarket as TSLA said it had very high confidence in reaching its 20k/week
target in 2018 and hitting 25% Model 3 margin targets. However, TSLA's H2
capex guide of $2bn implies more cash burn, & H2 margins guidance was
worse than our est. While TSLA has targeted 30% S/X margins, margins are
now expected to be <25% in Q3 due to weak S/X mix. If the higher-priced
S/X margins are <25%, reaching 25% Model 3 margins seems even more
challenging.

Typo alert.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

Having said that, I have already adjusted my Tesla Network assumptions based on feedback from more informed TMC members on the subject.

Due to slower ramp assumptions, Tesla Network revenue/profit do not comprise a meaningful portion of total until 2022/23.

Maybe the issue isn't the software/cars but automated SCs?

 

[steve3]

<snip>
What Tesla really needs is a recommendation from this guy:

The Total Money Makeover: A Proven Plan for Financial Fitness

View attachment 239565

What would it take to actually get that?...

...a test drive. Works for the rest of the world. Why not tweet him?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

TSLA at Bofa
TSLA reported 2Q17 adjusted EPS loss of $(1.33), above our estimate of $(1.50) and the Bloomberg consensus of $(1.87). Key takeaways were as follows: (1) Revenue of $2.89bn was above our $2.39bn estimate, driven by higher-than-expected ZEV (zero-emission vehicle) credit revenue and a greater percentage of TSLA�s vehicles being purchased (immediate revenue recognition) rather than leased; (2) gross profit was a bit better than expected (23.9% margin vs. BofAMLe 21.9%), again aided by $100mm in ZEV revenue (that rolls on at 100% margin); (3) op expenses (SG&A, R&D) of $901mm were below our $953mm forecast, with SG&A much lower than expected and R&D a bit higher. Following the 2Q results, we are slightly lowering our forward estimates, and our PO to $155 from $165 - TSLA at Bofa

The two bolded sentences contradict each other: so you missed revenue by ~$500m because of a $100m ZEV rev? What's the other $400m, dummy? Also 2.0% gross margin miss should not be described as "a bit." Finally, 2Q17 revenue was $2.79m, not $2.89m, seriously?! Hire a new intern.

Has the "analyst" given any reason to why the forward estimates were lowered after actual results beat their estimates on all items and management guidance for just six months out was more positive than what even the most bullish analysts expected?

Wall Street is a f'ing circus.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Maybe the issue isn't the software/cars but automated SCs?

Didn't they demonstrate that like two years ago?

 

[Krugerrand]

I do think it is important to keep the pump primed and running (purchasing traffic in the stores) next summer.

I don't think they do. I'm hearing all sorts of chatter from people I run into everyday who've never said a word before about buying a Tesla, now lusting for a Model 3. A few weeks ago one acquaintance put down their $1,000, today someone else I know, who I had no idea even knew Tesla existed, is putting down a deposit, wants the AWD version and knows they'll have wait at least a year for it - read, they've done their homework.

This car is already selling itself. Once people start seeing it on the road, in parking lots, get a chance to test drive it - yeah, non-issue. Although I fully expect to hear some version of 'Model 3 demand has plateaued' in a few months.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Didn't they demonstrate that like two years ago?

Yes. Installing and fine tune to real world conditions not sure. Just my guess that's what could be a hold up.