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Agree. I think they have a prototype line set up for the initial 3s and will be moving over to the BIW line in September? (just a theory)

Do you two really have any actual evidence to support this belief? We know they hand built RCs. We know that that is untenable beyond any very small amount of production rate. We've been told that the production cars are production cars.

You can't build production cars by hand. The fact that the RC's were is not evidence that the production cars were. Why would Tesla claim they've started production of 3's when in fact they had not? That would be lying to investors, which is a clear SEC violation.
 
... They (Magna) know the amount of EVs that will be coming in the new few years from BMW, GM, Ford, Jaguar, Daimler, and so forth. There just aren't going to be that many. ...
It appears that governments will have to take the lead to force these manufacturers to get of their butts. More and sooner outright bans of ICE might be sufficient.
 
I appreciate your comment and it's helpful. However, it confirms my belief that they're incompetent, so I'm going to keep bashing Todd Maron, the *divorce lawyer* who Musk hired to do work which is *outside his competence*. He should have been fired years ago and replaced with someone who actually knew fields of law which are *relevant*.


Well, thanks for the description. So they're basically designed to say "yeah, you can get away with lawbreaking here". That is quite consistent with the behavior of corporate legal teams that I've seen, certainly.



*Sigh* I don't think the cost of eliminating the legal risks I've identified is significant. In fact, I suspect it's less than $5000 TOTAL. (Send out a memo reminding execs to publish their presentations which they gave to private investors. Or have IR check at the end of each week and publish said presentations. Provide a license notice for the pirated software in the owners manual of the car.)

At some point, it seems extraordinarily irresponsible to take risks which are *that cheap* to mitigate. And Tesla is well past that point.

The cost/benefit analysis of Tesla's in-house legal team is incompetent. Which you'd expect when you have a divorce lawyer running things. I'm sure he's a perfectly good divorce lawyer, but he's way out of his depth. His divorce background may also be biasing him against sensible behavior, because there are certain sorts of tactics which are effective in a divorce case and counterproductive in corporate law.

They write bad legal filings in their fights with the dealerships. I don't know how much that costs them in the long run, but geez, I could write better filings. This may also be due to the divorce-lawyer background; they're making the wrong type of pitch.

They didn't even do the basic paralegal work to figure out the registration/insurance rules in each of the 50 states before they started selling the cars in 50 states, which created *angry customers*. They seem to have finally straightened that out now, but geez, it would have been less than two days work for one paralegal to just look the rules up and put them in a single binder to give to their sales staff.

I'm talking about *really cheap, basic due diligence* stuff which isn't/wasn't being done. Tesla' legal team *sucks*, and there's no way around that.


I have some references. They've made poor choices of outside counsel on other issues.


Well, fine, they hired the most expensive firm on that one.

I suspect Musk could have made that call without going through his divorce lawyer.

I stand by my assessment: Todd Maron is fundamentally not competent to perform his current job. He is a liability to the company. He should be replaced with someone with a more suitable skill set.
You just have a basic misunderstanding of the Legal function of companies, so your opinion is not well-formed. You are of course entitled to that opinion - just want to point out all the foundational, basic level stuff you have wrong when you form that opinion.

Here's a little known secret - most GCs have little to no legal function in a company. They operate FAR more on the business side of things. The head of each respective practice within the company (M&A, Employment, IP, Corporate, Securities, Litigation etc.) actually practice law and manage outside counsel. These people report up to the GC and the GC has the final call on larger issues.

It's also not possible to evaluate the efficacy of a GC from the outside looking in. 95% of what they do is behind the scenes. Also, you really only hear about the failures of the Legal function. Tesla doesn't issue PRs saying "hey those SCTY merger docs were top notch, did you check out the indemnification covenants we got them to agree to? Out of market but they still caved!" Or "hey we really saved on severance costs when we fired 3 VPs this past month!"

Thus, your screeds against him as a divorce lawyer or whatever are pretty laughable. He's not sitting down there in the trenches reviewing some rote filing in a dealership case. In all likelihood he hasn't even read it. He didn't even develop the strategy. At most he probably said "we need to challenge these laws, Lit guy. go do it." That was developed and written by outside counsel with the Tesla head of Lit overseeing things. Be mad at that person if you feel you are qualified to judge the effectiveness of a filing written by experts being paid $1200 an hour to do what they have trained all their lives to do.

And no, my description of the cost-benefit analysis conducted by in house counsel in no way condones lawbreaking. How can you ascribe such a black and white view of an area (legal) which is 98% gray area? IR callbacks after earnings are not blatantly illegal and every company does them. Having private calls with bond people is not illegal and is an essential part of capital markets transactions. They made the determination that they didn't disclose any new material info, so no Reg FD violation. If you have a different view that's an opinion, not a black and white fact that they are breaking the law.

And your $5000 claim to fix the Reg FD issue? Come on. They have to sell these bond issuances and get investors excited about the company in order to raise capital. It's absolutely essential to the survival of the company. The last thing Tesla needs is an overzealous legal team telling IR to stop selling the company to investors due to Reg FD fears. It's not cheap or easy to publish everything that's said to investors, either (plus the slippery slope problem). That could cost Tesla hundreds of millions in investment dollars. All because legal couldn't understand how to balance legal risk. Cost benefit analysis says keep doing what you are doing, consistent with the market. Losing investors is too high of a risk.
 
Yes... Tesla perma-bears like @mmd and @tftf keep talking about coming competition. And sure, some new models will be introduced. However, Magna will be building the Jaguar i-Pace. They also build vehicles like the BMW X3. They provide the powertrain for the Ford Focus Electric and Ford Energi models. They know the amount of EVs that will be coming in the new few years from BMW, GM, Ford, Jaguar, Daimler, and so forth. There just aren't going to be that many. We also know this due to the battery production contracts. It doesn't matter if LG/Samsung/CATL and so forth talk about possible 2020 or 2025 capacity. What matters is the commitments, including sourcing contracts from the automakers as well as actual battery cell production investments communicated to investors. Tesla is the automaker and the battery cell supplier, so when Tesla says they see demand and will be building a certain number, that's very different than battery cell only makers. And we really haven't seen actual volume commitments from the major automakers. Merely just model introductions. Well, introducing a model and building 14k of them (Hyundai Ioniq) or 13k of them (Jaguar i-Pace) just doesn't move the needle. Hyundai is moving up their production by 50%, but then that's only 14k to 21k and that's a global number.
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Starting in the middle of 2016 is when PHEV and BEV sales really started picking up. (And this is the US alone, other countries of course have much higher penetration rates of PHEV and BEVs) Starting in 2018 and 2019 any lack of plug-in vehicle sales will because they don't have any compelling models available, and not due to a lack of demand. While PHEV may be a bridge technology for many of these companies, such as the Prius Prime, and the Volt, Tesla will be offering pure BEVs that outshine in every way beyond the extended range capabilities of having a gas powered genset alongside the battery drivetrain.

Tony Seba may be a bit overzealous and optimistic in many ways, but he's right in that if you have a doubling every 2 years, you're going to look at very high penetration rates in a short period of time. This segment of his presentation relates to solar, but cheap solar = cheap BEV charging.

Even if you just look at the growth from mid-2016 to today, one would expect around a 20% market share of plug-in vehicles compared to sales as a whole, but I think we will have growth much larger than 40% yr/yr largely thanks to the Model 3 and then the Model Y. Starting in 2018, I expect plug-in vehicle sales to increase 100% yr/yr.
 
Not sure why folk insist on comparing General Motors to Tesla Motors. They could not be more different. They do not operate on the same business model. It does not matter they are both in the auto industry when it comes to financials. They are businesses. You might as well compare TSLA to XOM (Exxon). They are that different.

One is union, one is not (yet). This is important due to pension funding.
One has stock valued on dividends and profits, one on speculation alone.
One has $36 billion in land, buildings, and equipment, 70% of their market cap. Tesla holds $8 billion or 15% of market cap.
One made >$9 billion profit last year, and paid record profit sharing to union workers. The other? No profit.

So exactly how do those two business models line up when it comes to bonds? One issues bonds based on financial ability to service the debt today, the other would issue bonds that require the business to change significantly before they could be paid.

This is not a hit piece on TSLA, it is simply facts when it comes to unsecured debt.

One wants an unsecured loan and has a house and works hourly at a factory for the last 10 years.
One wants an unsecured loan but rents and is a promising intern heading towards being a plastic surgeon in Miami.

Isn't much of the debt on the dinosaur ICE manufacturers' Balance Sheets car loans that they make an arbitrage profit on the spread between the borrowed debt and the interest rate charged to the car buyers?

Tesla's website shows 3 to 8 (!) year loans available with a 1.99% APR. Tesla Lending Tesla's Warehouse Agreement shows an interest rate of 2.6 to 2.9% with an un-drawn balance of $121 MM at 6/30/17 out of the available commitment of $600 MM. Under current WH terms, which were last amended in December, 2016, all draws must be before August 2017 and the total repaid in September 2018. The Canadian Credit Facility shows an interest rate of 3.6 to 4.5% with maturity in December, 2020.
 
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You just have a basic misunderstanding of the Legal function of companies, so your opinion is not well-formed. You are of course entitled to that opinion - just want to point out all the foundational, basic level stuff you have wrong when you form that opinion.

Here's a little known secret - most GCs have little to no legal function in a company. They operate FAR more on the business side of things. The head of each respective practice within the company (M&A, Employment, IP, Corporate, Securities, Litigation etc.) actually practice law and manage outside counsel. These people report up to the GC and the GC has the final call on larger issues.

It's also not possible to evaluate the efficacy of a GC from the outside looking in. 95% of what they do is behind the scenes. Also, you really only hear about the failures of the Legal function. Tesla doesn't issue PRs saying "hey those SCTY merger docs were top notch, did you check out the indemnification covenants we got them to agree to? Out of market but they still caved!" Or "hey we really saved on severance costs when we fired 3 VPs this past month!"

Thus, your screeds against him as a divorce lawyer or whatever are pretty laughable. He's not sitting down there in the trenches reviewing some rote filing in a dealership case. In all likelihood he hasn't even read it. He didn't even develop the strategy. At most he probably said "we need to challenge these laws, Lit guy. go do it." That was developed and written by outside counsel with the Tesla head of Lit overseeing things. Be mad at that person if you feel you are qualified to judge the effectiveness of a filing written by experts being paid $1200 an hour to do what they have trained all their lives to do.

And no, my description of the cost-benefit analysis conducted by in house counsel in no way condones lawbreaking. How can you ascribe such a black and white view of an area (legal) which is 98% gray area? IR callbacks after earnings are not blatantly illegal and every company does them. Having private calls with bond people is not illegal and is an essential part of capital markets transactions. They made the determination that they didn't disclose any new material info, so no Reg FD violation. If you have a different view that's an opinion, not a black and white fact that they are breaking the law.

And your $5000 claim to fix the Reg FD issue? Come on. They have to sell these bond issuances and get investors excited about the company in order to raise capital. It's absolutely essential to the survival of the company. The last thing Tesla needs is an overzealous legal team telling IR to stop selling the company to investors due to Reg FD fears. It's not cheap or easy to publish everything that's said to investors, either (plus the slippery slope problem). That could cost Tesla hundreds of millions in investment dollars. All because legal couldn't understand how to balance legal risk. Cost benefit analysis says keep doing what you are doing, consistent with the market. Losing investors is too high of a risk.

Nice post, nothing against neroden but one of my pet peeves is "I know better" claims from anyone that is working with less than 100% of the details/facts. No one knows everything regarding Tesla on any topic, bad look to accuse and name call.
 
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Starting in the middle of 2016 is when PHEV and BEV sales really started picking up. (And this is the US alone, other countries of course have much higher penetration rates of PHEV and BEVs) Starting in 2018 and 2019 any lack of plug-in vehicle sales will because they don't have any compelling models available, and not due to a lack of demand. While PHEV may be a bridge technology for many of these companies, such as the Prius Prime, and the Volt, Tesla will be offering pure BEVs that outshine in every way beyond the extended range capabilities of having a gas powered genset alongside the battery drivetrain.

Tony Seba may be a bit overzealous and optimistic in many ways, but he's right in that if you have a doubling every 2 years, you're going to look at very high penetration rates in a short period of time. This segment of his presentation relates to solar, but cheap solar = cheap BEV charging.

Even if you just look at the growth from mid-2016 to today, one would expect around a 20% market share of plug-in vehicles compared to sales as a whole, but I think we will have growth much larger than 40% yr/yr largely thanks to the Model 3 and then the Model Y. Starting in 2018, I expect plug-in vehicle sales to increase 100% yr/yr.
Only 100%
 
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You just have a basic misunderstanding of the Legal function of companies, so your opinion is not well-formed. You are of course entitled to that opinion - just want to point out all the foundational, basic level stuff you have wrong when you form that opinion.
Thanks. You have AGAIN confirmed that my opinion is well-founded and correct. Keep on going, you're providing more and more evidence. Perhaps you just don't want to see what's really going on.

Here's a little known secret - most GCs have little to no legal function in a company. They operate FAR more on the business side of things. The head of each respective practice within the company (M&A, Employment, IP, Corporate, Securities, Litigation etc.) actually practice law and manage outside counsel. These people report up to the GC and the GC has the final call on larger issues.

Of course. So the M&A person is good. The IP person is completely incompetent. The securities person is inviting trouble, but probably will turn out well. The litigation person is incompetent. I can't speak at all to employment, which is almost invisible from outside, but what little we've seen from leaks doesn't look good to me. As for one other category... in 2013, they clearly didn't actually have anyone at all handling state licensing and regulations (or they were incompetent, I don't know which).

This is still a very bad track record in hiring by Todd Maron.

P.S. Permitting and contracts for superchargers is, according to a leak, done by an outside contractor, apparently with no involvement from Tesla's legal department -- apparently this change is what sped up supercharger installs.

And no, my description of the cost-benefit analysis conducted by in house counsel in no way condones lawbreaking. How can you ascribe such a black and white view of an area (legal) which is 98% gray area?
I know for a fact that they've broken the law in black-and-white areas. It does tend to color my view of other areas.

IR callbacks after earnings are not blatantly illegal and every company does them. Having private calls with bond people is not illegal and is an essential part of capital markets transactions. They made the determination that they didn't disclose any new material info, so no Reg FD violation.

If they think that "we're buying the Australia project batteries from Samsung" isn't material -- if they think "we weren't producing the first 50 prodution cars on a production BIW line, they were hand built" isn't material, uh... sure, this is sort of a grey area. You could claim that this wasn't material. But you'd be wrong.

If you have a different view that's an opinion, not a black and white fact that they are breaking the law.

And your $5000 claim to fix the Reg FD issue? Come on. They have to sell these bond issuances and get investors excited about the company in order to raise capital. It's absolutely essential to the survival of the company. The last thing Tesla needs is an overzealous legal team telling IR to stop selling the company to investors due to Reg FD fears. It's not cheap or easy to publish everything that's said to investors, either

Citation needed. They've actually given entire POWERPOINT PRESENTATIONS to select groups of investors which they haven't published. It's trivial to publish those; it costs nothing at all. $0. It is cheap and it is easy. It does not require publishing any questions from the investors.

At the moment, I don't think anyone's inclined to complain.... simply because the investors getting these presentations are routinely leaking the information, so it ends up being public quickly anyway. Good for them.

But it's silly for Tesla to rely on that.

(plus the slippery slope problem). That could cost Tesla hundreds of millions in investment dollars.
Why? Because these investors need to feel, emotionally, like they're doing illegal insider trading, even if they're not really? I suppose that makes sense, if the investors are really emotionally driven.

I'm going to make a contrast: I've followed the actions of legal teams of other companies over the years.

IBM's is unconditionally stellar, always doing everything right. ExxonMobil is arguably evil but tactically extremely effective. Berkshire Hathaway is exceptionally good at all their legal work.

GE, 3M, and several railroad companies I've followed have mediocre but competent legal teams, who are effective most of the time.

Tesla is well below any of those by any external measure. Now, sure, you can say that's just because they're a startup. That's probably true. But they're getting bigger. It's about time they hired a competent in-house general counsel instead of using Elon's divorce lawyer.
 
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That's simply not how it works, as I've explained before. A steady lessee makes it *better* collateral. An unleased building is bad collateral, a leased building is good collateral. But I won't argue with you about that further.

You fail to grasp the distinction between a conventional 3rd party lessee and a Capital Lease where the building owner is obligated to purchase all the output produced by the lessee within the building. In the former situation, the lessee is largely indifferent who the landlord is, particularly in triple-net leases. In the latter situation, the secured creditors really do not want to get involved in the can of worms that exists if the building owner is financially unable to performs its obligations under the Capital Lease. Ask yourself how much rent Panasonic would owe to the creditors in possession?

Tesla reports that it has spent $1.98 billion on the GF through 6/30/17. Before the 6th amendment none of that was reachable as Collateral, yet the available commitment in ABL was increased by less than a third ($0.625 billion) of that sunk cost--and that does not even consider the increase in Collateral value related to increases in other PP&E and Inventories.
 
Isn't much of the debt on the dinosaur ICE manufacturers' Balance Sheets car loans that they make an arbitrage profit on the spread between the borrowed debt and the interest rate charged to the car buyers?

Tesla's website shows 3 to 8 (!) year loans available with a 1.99% APR. Tesla Lending Tesla's Warehouse Agreement shows an interest rate of 2.6 to 2.9% with an un-drawn balance of $121 MM at 6/30/17 out of the available commitment of $600 MM. Under current WH terms, which were last amended in December, 2016, all draws must be before August 2017 and the total repaid in September 2018. The Canadian Credit Facility shows an interest rate of 3.6 to 4.5% with maturity in December, 2020.

I took delivery of a Model X a week and a half ago. Tesla Lending got me a 6 year loan at 0.99% interest rate (through Chase).

Mighty good loan options available, if you're in the market for a new Tesla.
 
Thanks Fred L: When will the $7,500 tax credit run out?

Tesla salespeople are telling Model 3 reservation holders that $7,500 federal tax credit runs out in 2017


My opinion: Attempt to sell you an S *now*

To apply Hanlon's Razor, I suspect the salespeople simply don't understand how the federal tax credit phaseout works.

I have found Tesla salespeople to be extremely poorly informed about legal/tax stuff (registration, insurance, taxes, tax credits, leases, etc. etc.), and this has been confirmed repeatedly by other people on the forum. I don't know whether management has done anything to fix this but if they have it hasn't worked. It is what it is.
 
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Hmmm... internal combustion engine suppliers think there's still life in internal combustion engine cars. More interesting is that Magna thinks so too, which means that the coming competition that @mmd keeps talking about isn't coming in real volumes in the 2018 through 2025 time period. This article, like many Bloomberg articles mixes quotes from sources in a deceptive way. What we don't see is how much business these firms have with Tesla versus non-Tesla auto makers. They also mix in estimates from Bloomberg New Energy Finance which we already know is a biased and mistake prone source.

I think journalists do what they can, but they don't have the expertise or the focus that you and many other here do. Regardless, comments from Magna explain why ICE makers have been dragging their feet. I agree with your conclusion that "competition" from legacy auto manufacturers is many years away, if it ever comes.

Apple, on the other hand... Apple/Foxconn/CATL combo may become credible competition.
 
You fail to grasp the distinction between a conventional 3rd party lessee and a Capital Lease where the building owner is obligated to purchase all the output produced by the lessee within the building. In the former situation, the lessee is largely indifferent who the landlord is, particularly in triple-net leases. In the latter situation, the secured creditors really do not want to get involved in the can of worms that exists if the building owner is financially unable to performs its obligations under the Capital Lease. Ask yourself how much rent Panasonic would owe to the creditors in possession?

A lot more than the payments on an unrented, nonfunctioning empty building in the middle of the desert. There's a market for 2170 cells. Maybe we're not really arguing here. Maybe you're just comparing the existing state to a different thing than I am? Non-producing industrial buildings are essentially worthless as collateral, unless they have good locations where the land is worth a lot. The Gigafactory does not. Without the lease.... yeesh, without the lease it would be completely worthless as collateral, because if Tesla failed, what the hell would you do with it? With the lease, Panasonic will pay something and keep making batteries and sell them to someone.
 
Do you think Chase or some other entity is subsidizing that below market rate for 6 year money?

I wonder about that. I doubt Chase is subsidizing out of the goodness of their corporate heart. At least simplistically.

I suspect that Tesla would normally get some sort of finder's fee for bringing in a quality loan applicant, and delivering really large loan volume (nearly 100k per vehicle... 1000 vehicles/quarter would 100M worth of loans in a quarter). So one lever available to Tesla is to forgo that finder's fee as a way of buying down my loan cost (they make it back in volume, on vehicle gross margin).

Pretty clearly, there has to be some subsidizing to make that loan program available. 1% is not the market going rate :) My original alternative was more like 3% at my local credit union, and I think that would otherwise be a competitive rate in the market.


I don't know if the math works out (I r data geek, not accounting geek), but between a "bulk buy" lowering the rate plus Tesla forgoing a finder's fee, maybe that's enough to get down into that range.

If it were, the my answer would be Tesla subsidizing, along with Chase making a "bulk buy" discount available for really big volumes of auto loan financing (so I guess we could also say Chase is helping out).


Worth noting that Chase isn't the only bank Tesla is working with. When we started the process, our first quote at 1.49% was through Alliant Credit Union. We got a couple of other quotes - I think one from TD. I find myself comforted by having many banks as the ultimate loan partners, as that translates as customers to some competition along with an increased ability to provide these loans. At some point, Alliant will have all of these loans that they want (fits into their risk and interest profile, etc..); Tesla already has multiple banks they can use to satisfy this demand.
 
Nice post, nothing against neroden but one of my pet peeves is "I know better" claims from anyone that is working with less than 100% of the details/facts. No one knows everything regarding Tesla on any topic, bad look to accuse and name call.

Since I think it's a refreshing discussion alternative to "the short squeeze is imminent " meme, I can't resist stirring the pot on a Friday afternoon:

-family law practice is not the conventional route to the CC's chair. In my limited experience, many are former corporate law rain makers from the enterprise's "go to" outside law firm;

-I once worked for a CEO who viewed GC's primary responsibility as acting as his conscience;

-there are essentially no absolutes in the practice of law. It matters little whether Tesla or any other public corporation dances close to, on, or over ethical (civil) lines as long as they remain solvent; criminal lines are much different.
 
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