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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Agreed. That is the most important reason. However, for political/FUD reasons, it's really bad optics if Tesla is viewed as putting many of their employees suddenly out of work. Whereas with their upcoming factories, they'll just hire fewer works and retrain existing workers as the robots take over.

How can a company that has grown to over 30000 employees world wide be viewed for streamlining their employee count upon the merger with another company? Tesla just did that with their Solar City merger and as far as I can tell, no repercussions. You're grasping at straws.
 
How can a company that has grown to over 30000 employees world wide be viewed for streamlining their employee count upon the merger with another company? Tesla just did that with their Solar City merger and as far as I can tell, no repercussions. You're grasping at straws.

Because a lot off "jobs" would suddenly disappear as soon as Tesla throws the autonomous switch/regulators approve. Uber drivers are often viewed as the "abused" worker--the person between jobs trying to make ends meat with no benefits. More sympathy for them than Uber programming bros.
 
Tesla is really pushing out inventory sales this quarter. Even going as far as bringing back 2 year leases on unsold AP1 inventory (and obviously a large discount that reflects age and use of the car). Anyone up for making the traditional guess-the-deliveries-poll for Q3? I am voting 30k+ for this quarter : 25k newly produced, 3k sold out of inventory and 2k Model 3. Curious at what everyone else is thinking.
 
So I was interested in how much revenue Tesla Energy or more specific the Powerwall might contribute to Q1. Unfortunately it doesn't seem like much. For Q2 however thinks look much rosier. I asked several installers from Australia, the US and Germany about when first installations of the Tesla Powerwall 2 will start.

Green Mountain Power (US):
"We have not received any details from Tesla that would enable us to design the product offering therefore do not have a timeline. Also, the technical specs have not been provided."

Energy Matters (Australia):
"As it stands, the Tesla Powerwall 2's are not in the country yet so in terms of the first installations it is hard to say. We are looking at potential install dates of around April-May time this year."

OffGrid Energy (Australia):
"The latest update from Tesla is that the shipment is expected in late April for the DC Powerwall, and late May for the AC Powerwall. This means that actual installations would start being scheduled for May and June respectively. These estimates are for our customers who already have orders in place for the Powerwall. New orders may have different timeframes depending on when the next shipments from Tesla will be arriving."

Solahart (Australia):
"We are still waiting for the Tesla Powerwall to be released and tested by Solahart Head Office."

The german installers and Tesla Store Frankfurt haven't answered yet, but I will update once I have an answer. From what I'm hearing they also expect installations to start in April.
Elon once said that he expects Powerwall unit sales to exceed vehicle sales. If we add a grain of salt, 50,000 Powerwall sales in 2017 would equal about $300M in revenue. Not bad!
Any update from one of you how the Powerwall installation ramp is going? In Germany it's progressing slowly, it seems to be about the same in the US from what one can read on the forums...
 
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Any update from one of you how the Powerwall installation ramp is going? In Germany it's progressing slowly, it seems to be about the same in the US from what one can read on the forums...

Only relevant data point I saw on here is this post Powerwall 2 "waiting list" . Always dangerous to assume a serial number is a representation of delivered quantities, but tempting nonetheless. Seems to indicate they were up to 4000 units in July. Personally, I think Powerwall is always going to a slower ramp for the simple fact that you need to have qualified electricians actually going into people's homes. Simply takes time to have an infrastructure that can handle that.
 
How can someone write an article on this topic without mentioning Tesla once?

Your Car Is Now Worth Less Than You Think

Even the graph included in the article (see below) clearly shows the biggest hit to used car values are in segments in which Tesla competes, and the smallest hits are in segments Tesla does not compete, yet.

How is this journalism?!

upload_2017-8-22_7-23-4.png
 
Because a lot off "jobs" would suddenly disappear as soon as Tesla throws the autonomous switch/regulators approve. Uber drivers are often viewed as the "abused" worker--the person between jobs trying to make ends meat with no benefits. More sympathy for them than Uber programming bros.

You're concerned about something that just doesn't matter. It's not like tomorrow Tesla merges with Uber and an hour later they flip some switch and autonomy emerges and Uber drivers are out. By the time that would happen (not to mention it's likely to be transitionary not instantaneous), Tesla would be employing a lot more workers (they will have grown even bigger by that time with additional Gigafactories at the least) and if we just use some logic - Tesla already appears to give employees a chance to retrain for other positions, so...it stands to reason Uber drivers would also be given that same opportunity.

Again I repeat, Tesla has already done the whole merger thing and laid of workers with the Solar City merge. Non-issue. Not bad publicity or political or whatever. You're trying to make a mountain from a molehill.

A merger with Uber is a no for so many other reasons, this just isn't one of them.
 
Uber ride-sharing news clipped from Seeking Alpha:
Uber considers self-driving partner; company gains ground in India - Uber (Private:UBER) | Seeking Alpha

The Information reports that Uber (Private:UBER) is considering partnering its self-driving car unit with an automaker to reduce costs and improve the unit’s prospects.

An unidentified carmaker reportedly approached Uber this summer to buy the unit, which falls under Uber’s Advanced Technology Group umbrella. Executives rejected the offer, but it inspired considerations for a partnership.

Uber previously wanted to partner with Google on autonomous vehicles but the tech giant instead partnered with competitor Lyft. Uber and Waymo now have an ongoing legal battle regarding trade secret theft.

Uber's in the exact situation one might imagine --
- It needs to buy self-driving cars
- 500K cars at $40K each = $20B in costs (likely more)
- It needs to retrofit and integrate every one of those cars with its Uber Network

Lyft was smart enough to partner early. Uber realizes it can't go this alone and ever be first to market, as they're relying on a 3rd party to reach L5 and then retrofit. Or, their strategy in buying Otto was to reach L5 on their own and then retrofitting any old vehicle, but they now appear worried about that approach.

As we know, if Tesla get there first, they not only profit from car sales, but also from the network. And, it appears that the HW 2.5 upgrades are geared toward ride-sharing and the redundancy requirement in the self-driving guidelines.
 
Uber ride-sharing news clipped from Seeking Alpha:
Uber considers self-driving partner; company gains ground in India - Uber (Private:UBER) | Seeking Alpha

The Information reports that Uber (Private:UBER) is considering partnering its self-driving car unit with an automaker to reduce costs and improve the unit’s prospects.

An unidentified carmaker reportedly approached Uber this summer to buy the unit, which falls under Uber’s Advanced Technology Group umbrella. Executives rejected the offer, but it inspired considerations for a partnership.

Uber previously wanted to partner with Google on autonomous vehicles but the tech giant instead partnered with competitor Lyft. Uber and Waymo now have an ongoing legal battle regarding trade secret theft.

Uber's in the exact situation one might imagine --
- It needs to buy self-driving cars
- 500K cars at $40K each = $20B in costs (likely more)
- It needs to retrofit and integrate every one of those cars with its Uber Network

Lyft was smart enough to partner early. Uber realizes it can't go this alone and ever be first to market, as they're relying on a 3rd party to reach L5 and then retrofit. Or, their strategy in buying Otto was to reach L5 on their own and then retrofitting any old vehicle, but they now appear worried about that approach.

As we know, if Tesla get there first, they not only profit from car sales, but also from the network. And, it appears that the HW 2.5 upgrades are geared toward ride-sharing and the redundancy requirement in the self-driving guidelines.
My wife's cousin works for corp. Uber in Nashville as the head of that region, not sure on the exact title, but he commented on one of my FB posts with regards to the Tesla Network and who will get there first saying - "we shall see..." He loves Tesla and put down a deposit for the Model 3 a year ago, but I can't quite figure out his position. It seems Otto may be his source of pride for the company. I would say he's in a tough spot job wise.....I don't tease him because I think his company won't be around for much longer.
 
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Would any of that info be considered inside information? Obviously the bartender wouldn't be but if it was a source inside giving out none pupulic information that one traded on... I don't know my better judgement feels like it could.

Reviving this. Any relevant parties please PM me. I think it would be worth quite a bit to have a source who could update on the status of the Model 3 ramp. Does anyone have a bartender source? Seems like it can't be a closely guarded secret since so many people would be involved in the robot programming and line assembly.
 
Reviving this. Any relevant parties please PM me. I think it would be worth quite a bit to have a source who could update on the status of the Model 3 ramp. Does anyone have a bartender source? Seems like it can't be a closely guarded secret since so many people would be involved in the robot programming and line assembly.
If the M3 line is moving at any speed there should be significant info around these milestones. I'm just afraid after the initial batch the line was stopped to recalibrate. Production should be going along and bunches of M3 line the factory lots. My feeling is the average Joe still thinks the M3 will be immaterial Q3/4. Any early indications would be helpful as i'm looking to increase another 50-75% more shares.
 
A deeply thought out blog post by Benedict Evans.

Winner-takes all effects in autonomous cars

I don't necessarily agree with everything he says but I do think his views are worth reading. A brief bio from his home page:

I work at Andreessen Horowitz ('a16z'), a venture capital firm in Silicon Valley that invests in technology companies. I try to work out what's going on and what will happen next.
 
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