2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[TrendTrader007]

another reason why it's too soon to bail out here is that this is a second stage base. if you count the # of bases, typically a winning stock has at least 3 to 4 bases before major correction. also note the distance from 200 day SMA

 

[TMSE]

Completely meaningless. Low IQ.

Why do you make comments like that? Do you enjoy acting like a school yard bully?

 

[TrendTrader007]

Could you elaborate on your thoughts for tesla energy? as the market currently gives little value to this based on past performance of solar and unclear information on stationary storage...

TE will be big and a major catalyst for SP
grossly underrated currently

 

[TMSE]

Am I wrong?

edit: I call out stupidity, and I'm right about it. You want to talk about my tone of voice. ok. Are you a part of the solution or the problem?

You need to grow up. Or, your parents should restrict internet access to you.

 

[mongo]

Solar roof that he installed on one, as we know now, is not functional yet after one year.

Installation on Elon's house was announced August 3, 2017. That is not one year more like less than 3 months, do you have a source for your non-functional claim? Elon Musk is one of the first customers of Tesla’s Solar Roof

The video seems to over dramatize the effect of electricity bill. What's the rate Australians pay for electricity? Wikipedia says 17-26 cents a KWh.

The average is 47 cents per kWh as of August http://www.afr.com/news/australian-households-pay-highest-power-prices-in-world-20170804-gxp58a During the latest shortage, the kWh price went up to $2 a kWh see post 30187 above.

Strangely, the 100 day countdown started only after some permit to connect to grid was issued. For my solar panels, the connection to grid came last.

The contract was based on the interconnection agreement with the utility. Your solar operated under a preexisting agreement, the connection is a separate thing entirely. Hence why the battery event was powered by the batteries, they are not yet connected to the grid.

And yeah. If the GF has cell production issues, we should be seeing mountains of raw materials piling up outside the GF.

If the ordering/ delivery wasn't coordinated, and if GF didn't have storage space, then yeah there would be a stack up. Not talking bulk goods here. Cross contamination of anode and cathode is really bad, I understand.

 

[30seconds]

Am I wrong?

edit: I call out stupidity, and I'm right about it. You want to talk about my tone of voice. ok. Are you a part of the solution or the problem?

I think you are absolutely correct. In ten or twenty years when Tesla is under intense competitive pressure that makes it hard to justify the over-inflated valuation you will be able to say "see, I told you Elon's a fraud."

 

[TrendTrader007]

I'm not seeing any intelligence emerge on this forum.. at all. I personally have over a million invested in Tesla and I take seriously the question of whether that's a good idea or not. This is like a Disney formulation of intellectual conversation around here. Let's support the dope that thinks that investing is all about moving averages... I can't be the only one that realizes this place is busted yeah?

only a million

 

[TrendTrader007]

Really? You are a child.

Lol take it easy bud! I’m just messing with ya. A million is a lot of money. More glory to you

 

[TMSE]

Question on the funding for future Gigafactories GF3, GF4, etc.,

An integrated Gigafactory (batteries + car) could cost upwards of $10B in Capital cost. Is there a way for Tesla to raise nondilutive debt to fund all these future GFs without risking breach of covenants on existing debt?

I am no expert on this topic, but my simplistic thinking leads to a scenario wherein each new GF is incorporated as a separate, but fully owned entity of Tesla. Each of these new entities raise debt backed by the assets under that new entity. As govts around the world are eager to have a Tesla GF in their backyard, wouldn’t it be feasible solution to heavy Capex needs in future?

 

[SPadival]

I would like to see that section of road in the video on a map to get a better sense of just how out of the ordinary that road is?

I cant give you the exact section of the road.. but it is really curvy with hairpin bends. I will try this out when I get my Model 3

Link to Google maps

 

[AcesDealt]

Australia is irrelevant.

5 people think I'm wrong when I say Australia is irrelevant (and no one agrees with me), when it was an arbitrary news item that came up in the middle of a failed timeline for everything else that Tesla had previously said was important and is behind on. And no one attempts an actual argument. Alright I guess I can only protest so much before it becomes questionable why I am bothering.

 

[Intl Professor]

Is ValueAnalyst just a blind bull spammer here, or what? I hope people realize that it's hard to make a lot of money on the market. Shills aren't very useful.

I guess some of us are just lucky, despite your obviously superior intellect and perspicacity at investing. I've been investing in Tesla since 2010 due to news of battery range for the roadster and it's been very good for me. Also, Baidu on a tip from Motley Fool. That was at $86 when it promptly split 10:1. Now I could buy both an MX, MS, and M3, but won't as I'm now confident my 40 year younger wife will be set up. We'll probably just buy an M3.

Easiest $400,000 I've ever made. Expect it to double in two or so years by just sitting tight. (Some nail-biting days recently, however, but I'm forever long though due to die relatively soon.) Our so much smarter wealth manager sold NVDA at $17. Wish I had put a hold on that as I did Tsla, Baidu, and some others. That would have paid for the M3.

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR WARNING:

Someone here must have been sadly misinformed that this Forum exists to serve as a conduit for demonstrating bad temper, bad personal interactions, bad logic and, worst of all, bad judgment.

And also that Moderators aren't more than happy and able to shut him down like a frog on a fly.

Frog is standing by. Hop, Hop, Ribbit.

 

[dc_h]

Question on the funding for future Gigafactories GF3, GF4, etc.,

An integrated Gigafactory (batteries + car) could cost upwards of $10B in Capital cost. Is there a way for Tesla to raise nondilutive debt to fund all these future GFs without risking breach of covenants on existing debt?

I am no expert on this topic, but my simplistic thinking leads to a scenario wherein each new GF is incorporated as a separate, but fully owned entity of Tesla. Each of these new entities raise debt backed by the assets under that new entity. As govts around the world are eager to have a Tesla GF in their backyard, wouldn’t it be feasible solution to heavy Capex needs in future?

I think once Model 3 is at 5000 weekly, revenue is about 22.5 billion annual. If gross margins are 30 for S/X and 25 for 3, they should have close to 4 billion in internal funding for the next plant. If they approach 7500 a week by end of 2018, they are closing on 30 billion in annual revenue they’ll have close to 5 billion. I think part of key to China and all future plants is if they can start on a modular basis, meaning start one line producing 250,000 annual and a matching battery line. Get that done in a year, and then get second line going in 2019 and get to 500,000 and then 1mm in 2020. Even at 30% gross margin they can only grow about 30-50% without going back for a cap raise in bonds or stock. I think a bond raise in China to fund the plant might be relatively easy though and maybe they could be Fremont sized by 2019.

Short term the earnings call will be all about Q4 guidance about Model 3 deliveries and production. If they can express confidence that issues are nearly resolved and on track for 5000 a week end of January or February, I hope we will see a bounce. Earnings could be pretty bad though. Lots of hiring for Model 3 production and deliveries that aren’t happening.

Anyhow, I’m starting to come around to VA 2mm in 2020, but see potential rough road here in short term. If we’re not up this week, we could be down or sideways end of week.

 

[AcesDealt]

I guess some of us are just lucky, despite your obviously superior intellect and perspicacity at investing. I've been investing in Tesla since 2010 due to news of battery range for the roadster and it's been very good for me. Also, Baidu on a tip from Motley Fool. That was at $86 when it promptly split 10:1. Now I could buy both an MX, MS, and M3, but won't as I'm now confident my 40 year younger wife will be set up. We'll probably just buy an M3.

Easiest $400,000 I've ever made. Expect it to double in two or so years by just sitting tight. (Some nail-biting days recently, however, but I'm forever long though due to die relatively soon.) Our so much smarter wealth manager sold NVDA at $17. Wish I had put a hold on that as I did Tsla, Baidu, and some others. That would have paid for the M3.

I like you man. We oughta have some noodles with your wife some day. I do think the TSLA investment pays off, but there's the right narrative and the wrong narrative when it comes to analyzing that.

 

[Intl Professor]

Why do you make comments like that? Do you enjoy acting like a school yard bully?

I have warned AcesDealt with penalties and deleted some. Please don't respond until I get through the rest.

 

[RABaby]

[..)

MODERATOR WARNING:

Someone here must have been sadly misinformed that this Forum exists to serve as a conduit for demonstrating bad temper, bad personal interactions, bad logic and, worst of all, bad judgment.

And also that Moderators aren't more than happy and able to shut him down like a frog on a fly.

Frog is standing by. Hop, Hop, Ribbit.

The frog must be pretty full, or making claims like Trump. The frog should have digested that fly by now.

 

[AcesDealt]

I just started watching the oldish series on HBO called Newsroom from Aaron Sorkin. Top notch snappy dialogue! Intl professor would enjoy it with his ear magnaphone. Interestingly it's a call for news to be less about faux fairness and more about realizing that there is such a thing as absolute truth. The main character is an anchor who had great ratings being civil and riding the middle. Well.. the show got cancelled rather early. Guess people don't like that message.

 

[AcesDealt]

4 comments deleted so far and I bet I am in the top 10% of intelligent posters here. Just what is your priority?

 

[Intl Professor]

It seems the country is going through a transformation. No longer are prominent males/females able to hide their predatory behavior; it is uncivil. This is a civil forum despite uncivil behavior by some of our leaders. An excuse for them, maybe, but not the behavior or words members expect from the Tesla family.