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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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It gets annoying listening to *silly* bearish arguments when I can make better bearish arguments based on Tesla's demonstrated weaknesses.
Nice to have you back. @neroden. I've been resisting the temptation to heart all of your posts as it's not cool to gush. But the atmosphere around here lately has had a distinct barnyard aroma and your responses (to other posters and ghosts alike) are a breath of fresh air.
 
Is it a low-margin business? Eventually it will be, but Tesla appears to have the lowest production cost at this time, so they have the highest margin among competitors.

Yeah, about that. Why was storage again a business with negative gross margin this quarter? Read the 10-Q. It's right there. Subtract SolarCity revenue/cost of goods from TE and let me know what you get. It's not pretty.

Buyers now are the premium buyers. Either because they have no choice or because money is not the issue. Islands whose only alternative are expensive undersea cables, states with crumbling electric infrastructure and crippling summer heat on a 100 day deadline, isolated places spending rent money from their larger protective hosts, wineries that want to virtue signal, brand fanatics that crave a large white box with a T on it despite living in a country where it makes no financial sense and the average time between net outage is longer than the warranty on the product, consumers who are paying with tax credits, the list goes on and on. Tesla should be able to extract a huge premium from these customers. Has not happened. Maybe next quarter. Maybe not.

Here is another observation : the cost savings for Tesla Energy from concentrating in the gigafactory are likely 0 at this point. There is no cost saving from cell manufacturing otherwise they wouldn't truck in cells from elsewhere and there is no cost saving from assembly because we know through the Model 3 pack assembly fiasco that it's a completely different line that could just as easily be at a more convenient location. I would not be surprised if it turns out that today it's actually more expensive to make Tesla Energy products at the gigafactory than elsewhere.
 
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Yeah, about that. Why was storage again a business with negative gross margin this quarter? Read the 10-Q. It's right there. Subtract SolarCity revenue/cost of goods from TE and let me know what you get. It's not pretty.

Buyers now are the premium buyers. Either because they have no choice or because money is not the issue. Islands whose only alternative are expensive undersea cables, states with crumbling electric infrastructure and crippling summer heat on a 100 day deadline, isolated places spending rent money from their larger protective hosts, wineries that want to virtue signal, brand fanatics that crave a large white box with a T on it despite living in a country where it makes no financial sense and the average time between net outage is longer than the warranty on the product, consumers who are paying with tax credits, the list goes on and on. Tesla should be able to extract a huge premium from these customers. Has not happened. Maybe next quarter. Maybe not.

Here is another observation : the cost savings for Tesla Energy from concentrating in the gigafactory are likely 0 at this point. There is no cost saving from cell manufacturing otherwise they wouldn't truck in cells from elsewhere and there is no cost saving from assembly because we know through the Model 3 pack assembly fiasco that it's a completely different line that could just as easily be at a more convenient location. I would not be surprised if it turns out that today it's actually more expensive to make Tesla Energy products at the gigafactory than elsewhere.

Why is this any different than negative margin for Model 3 at the early stage of the S curve?

At 100 MWh/quarter they are barely scratching the surface but have massive GF costs to spread over a relatively small volume of products. Why would you expect this small volume to reflect margins when production is ramped up and is an order of magnitude larger and more?
 
Myusername: drive the car. Just take it out for a good long test drive (though overnight is better -- it took a couple of weeks for me to really appreciate this). I know you trade based on technicals, but you cannot understand the company unless you understand the product, and you don't understand the product.

You will not "think it was one of the best cars [you've] driven".... rather, you will start wondering what's wrong with all the other cars. Your entire viewpoint will shift and you will *only* consider 100% electric cars to be competition. There are very few people who have gone electric and then gone back to junky gasmobiles (I think Leonardo DeCaprio is one). It seems like you still haven't figured out that this is how it works.

This is why those of us who get it are looking intently at the *electric* competition and laughing at the ICE "competition". Take a drive and you'll get it.
I am a Tesla long and Elon Musk fan but I don’t agree with your assessment. We have a Nissan Leaf and an Audi A6 in the family I actually prefer the A6.
 
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Why is this any different than negative margin for Model 3 at the early stage of the S curve?

We are already 2 years in 'early stage of the S curve'. If Model 3 is doing as pitifull as storage is doing today come 2019 then let's talk again. Or maybe not because Tesla would be bankrupt and this forum closed.

Btw, I was replying to @neroden who is claiming that the business is high margin TODAY. It clearly isn't. It's a negative margin business so far. Every quarter that it remains so, is a quarter closer to the point in time where battery storage will inevitably be a commodity product sourced out of Chinese manufacturers with only redemption for domestic production second-term Trump slapping punitive import taxes on them.
 
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I'm collecting some data,
tsla-111017.png
 
Why is this any different than negative margin for Model 3 at the early stage of the S curve?

At 100 MWh/quarter they are barely scratching the surface but have massive GF costs to spread over a relatively small volume of products. Why would you expect this small volume to reflect margins when production is ramped up and is an order of magnitude larger and more?

It's been "early stage" for a while... with each quarter that it doesn't grow "super-exponentially" and "profits margins similar to automotive," it's getting more and more difficult to believe management guidance.
 
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It's been "early stage" for a while... with each quarter that it doesn't grow "super-exponentially" and "profits margins similar to automotive," it's getting more and more difficult to believe management guidance.

Did I misunderstand your post? Are you saying something negative about Tesla?
 
We are already 2 years in 'early stage of the S curve'. If Model 3 is doing as pitifull as storage is doing today come 2019 then let's talk again. Or maybe not because Tesla would be bankrupt and this forum closed.

I think two issues are being mixed up here -- speed of the TE ramp and gross margins.

Starting with the more familiar Model 3 context, the following two statements seem reasonable to me (not saying they necessarily reflect my opinion):
  • I am frustrated at the slow pace of the production ramp
  • Tesla says Model 3 will have 25% gross margins but I am skeptical (or I am adopting a "wait and see" attitude)
But I don't think the following statement is reasonable:
  • Tesla is making low/negative gross margins on the Model 3 in Q3/Q4, therefore I think the Model 3 will have low margins at scale.
It seems to me that arguing that Tesla is making low/negative margins on TE at ~100MWh/quarter and suggesting it is likely to be a low margin business at scale is comparable to the latter argument.

As I said in my earlier post, IMO even if TE margins in Q3 were low or negative (which I assume but haven't confirmed), that is essentially meaningless at this early stage of the S curve.
 
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We are already 2 years in 'early stage of the S curve'. If Model 3 is doing as pitifull as storage is doing today come 2019 then let's talk again. Or maybe not because Tesla would be bankrupt and this forum closed.

Come on, now you´re overdoing it a bit. I agree that storage is having a slow start. But that is mostly because it is a new concept to most potential customers. Cars not so much. In case of Tesla´s cars, it is only convincing some of the 100 millions of car buyers to go electric. I don´t see a long term issue with Model 3 at all.

Also, I do think it does make sense to initially sell some storage at low margin or even a loss in order to position yourself on the market for the future.
 
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