I'm a bit dubious that the sales person would either know that, or be willing to share it. Fun to think about though.
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I'm a bit dubious that the sales person would either know that, or be willing to share it. Fun to think about though.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
I know you were weren't comparing respective Tesla profits for Semi vs M3 etc. I was pointing out that Tesla will take a big hit profit wise if they build and sell large numbers of Semis before they have a large enough supply of cells to do both. Plus other products that need cells.
I share your hope Tesla will become a huge and profitable electric utility, driven by them providing a good portion of the recharging energy needed for trucking industry to move from diesel to EV. Everything seems to tie back to them being able to build enough battery GF capacity. It's too bad, at least for analyzing all these pieces, Tesla has kept most details about battery production progress at GF secret.
It makes attempts to analyze how fast they will be able to ramp the battery production they must have akin to tea leaf reading.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
A related question is what people of “own-charging” systems sold by Tesla will include solar panels and Powerpacks?
I expect that we'll see plenty of businesses that build some of their own charging infrastructure that they either use exclusively (all trucks return at night to a central parking lot / charging area), or a mix of own charging plus on-the-road charging. I don't have any kind of guess at the proportion - only that own-charging (comparabe to today's garage charging) will be >0% and <100% (not exactly going out on a limb there.
The relatively high cost of large spikes in energy use combined with Tesla’s ability to provide a system that produces electricity for $0.07 per kWh means that the percentage is probably going to be substantial.
This is exactly why Tesla views the GF as a product. The most important work they are doing right now is optimizing the manufacturing production lines.
The ultimate plan is to build dozens of GF’s. They need them to be as cost effective and efficient as possible.
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
This article, unless I am wrong, would not be the first time, brings to the for front Lutz’s prediction. Electric-car start-up Lucid Motors moves to bigger headquarters in Tesla's backyard A lot of money has and is being poured into EVs, just not by the Jimmy Come Lately ICE manufactures.
Until flatworlders, fossil fuel tar feet believers, get their mind wrapped around where we the people are headed with EV and solar power, they will be like the ghost ships that keep crashing into Japan from North Korea. Kind of like MUN.
I have yet to hear much chatter, speaking of Lutz, about Elon’s quiet deflection about Uber or someone else buying fleets of M3s. Elon, again unless I am wrong, is hoping that the owners of M3s, along with Tesla, will create their own profitable taxi service.
Discussions of late have been like the stereotypical waiting room trying to figure out if the baby will be a boy or a girl. Or maybe the eye of the storm is more appropriate. I think it is more the eye of the storm. Is Elon still camped out on top of the Gigafactory? I only have a day or two before I can review the InsideEVs guestimation of M3s sales this month and I am hopeful there is a unicorn in there We, or most of us, are eagerly waiting for the official word on M3 production/deliveries.
If you want to be among the doubters of Elon’s projections, then while you are on the pot (please do not smoke that pot stuff) think, again assuming there is enough thinking power remaining, try reviewing all the pitfalls that have positively gotten Tesla and Elon to where they are today. They did not get to where they are today thanks to me, but that does not hurt my egos one bit
Someone commented recently that it is basic Econ 101 that someone like Volvo has to turn a profit within three years of introduction of a new assembly line. What was failed to be included in that perspective was Bandwagon 101, which Volvo, GM, Ford, Toyota, VW. . . . are trying to strum along with a few broken strings on their guitars. They are playing catch-up, they are not in the leadership role. I think it was VW that purchased an MS a couple of years back to disassemble so they could lear from their (VWs) mistakes and produce an EV. Reminds me of the MiG fighter we had handed to us back in the late eighties. We disassembled it to find out what made it such a formidable fighter plane. The Russians were pissed and wanted it back like yesterday. Playing catch-up is not a winning strategy, never has been
Some of you recently are insulting my call sign, MajorBS, by truncating the Major part. I come by this naturally, or some may say I am blessed, me ~ well I think it is cool
Is Tesla, SpaceX, or Elon perfect ~ no, but I, if honest, am not remotely close. I have no intention os dismantling my MX thinking I can improve upon it. But I can enjoy it beyond words, at least Bear language
Until flatworlders, fossil fuel tar feet believers, get their mind wrapped around where we the people are headed with EV and solar power, they will be like the ghost ships that keep crashing into Japan from North Korea. Kind of like MUN.
I have yet to hear much chatter, speaking of Lutz, about Elon’s quiet deflection about Uber or someone else buying fleets of M3s. Elon, again unless I am wrong, is hoping that the owners of M3s, along with Tesla, will create their own profitable taxi service.
Discussions of late have been like the stereotypical waiting room trying to figure out if the baby will be a boy or a girl. Or maybe the eye of the storm is more appropriate. I think it is more the eye of the storm. Is Elon still camped out on top of the Gigafactory? I only have a day or two before I can review the InsideEVs guestimation of M3s sales this month and I am hopeful there is a unicorn in there
We, or most of us, are eagerly waiting for the official word on M3 production/deliveries.If you want to be among the doubters of Elon’s projections, then while you are on the pot (please do not smoke that pot stuff) think, again assuming there is enough thinking power remaining, try reviewing all the pitfalls that have positively gotten Tesla and Elon to where they are today. They did not get to where they are today thanks to me, but that does not hurt my egos one bit
Someone commented recently that it is basic Econ 101 that someone like Volvo has to turn a profit within three years of introduction of a new assembly line. What was failed to be included in that perspective was Bandwagon 101, which Volvo, GM, Ford, Toyota, VW. . . . are trying to strum along with a few broken strings on their guitars. They are playing catch-up, they are not in the leadership role. I think it was VW that purchased an MS a couple of years back to disassemble so they could lear from their (VWs) mistakes and produce an EV. Reminds me of the MiG fighter we had handed to us back in the late eighties. We disassembled it to find out what made it such a formidable fighter plane. The Russians were pissed and wanted it back like yesterday. Playing catch-up is not a winning strategy, never has been
Some of you recently are insulting my call sign, MajorBS, by truncating the Major part. I come by this naturally, or some may say I am blessed, me ~ well I think it is cool
Is Tesla, SpaceX, or Elon perfect ~ no, but I, if honest, am not remotely close. I have no intention os dismantling my MX thinking I can improve upon it. But I can enjoy it beyond words, at least Bear language
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Tesla and Panasonic codeveloped custom large scale production processes and equipment for use at the Gigafactory. I believe that most of the additional twenty percent reduction in costs that they said would happen by the end of building Gigafactory One is due to the fact that building subsequent copies of that equipment will cost less and be much faster to build.
The most obvious example is the current pack production bottlenecks. We can count on the fact that they won’t make the same mistakes again. I believe that they will set up assembly lines to build that equipment. They are going to have something like 20-30 cell production lines in each Gigafactory. Multiplied times 4-10 Gigafactories will make that worth while and that will become a substantial moat. An issue is how much of that will need to be redone to accommodate the Goodenaugh cells. That will cost Tesla time and money but they will still (odd are greater than 90%) be way ahead of the competing OEM’s.
These production bottlenecks are a big buying opportunity.
Definitely an advice!
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dc_h
Active Member
Fun to think. I would guess if they have a lot of reservations, it could have caused some internal buzz, so rumors of reservations might spill out. On the realistic side, that is a huge and somewhat crazy number for a $250,000 car that is not available for 2+ years. If real, it could speed up some plans though.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I suspect that the Goodenough battery will be more similar to solar panels than to cylindrical cells. It needs thin film deposition (um of Li), and glass doping, both of which are standard processing steps in semiconductor material including solar panels. I think with the solar roof work that Tesla is doing now including building high volume production in GF2, they will be well prepared.
It's a solar cell
It's a battery
It's both!
A solar panel that provides power at night. How neat would that be?
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Are you forgetting the facts that when the Gigafactory is completed that batteries will cost a lot less. The prices for the M3 will be reduced accordingly, but the semi prices we have incorporate those reductions.
I believe that the biggest challenges are building and trouble shooting the first phases of Gigafactory 1 and the first phases of the transition to the Goodenaugh cells.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Those will require less space to produce and the production will be faster than coating huge rolls and drying them? Can you provide a reasonably accurate estimate of the increase in production (if any) for Gigafactory 1 if they convert it to production of Goodenaugh cells?
when you say "far fetched"... you mean like this?
Why Are Dozens Of Tesla Model 3, S, And X Sitting In An LA Parking Lot?
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
The explanation is given in the update at the bottom of the click-bait article:
Update: Responding to these reports, an unnamed Tesla source told us that the cars were moved to this area temporarily as the company's service and delivery center is being used for the Tesla semi reveal.
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