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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
oh... then that explains everything. because if it was something else, i'm certain they would have just said that.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Sorry I don't know enough about the cylindrical rolls, and the details on the Goodenough cells to say anything quantitatively.
To give some idea: Typically in semiconductor industry now, one lot (box) of 25 300mm (diameter) wafers are processed at a time. The machines can require a footprint of 10-20ft on each side, and ~6-10 ft tall (example), some can process 2-3 boxes simultaneously. The wafer boxes are delivered via overhead tracks. Typical factories are set up with multiple floors. The processing time really depend on the material, thickness, deposition method, but typically would be on the order of minutes or 10s of minutes, usually less than hours.
For solar panels or solar roof, I imagine the form factor of the material would likely be different, not a typical 300mm wafer, so machines will have to be customized to work with those shape/sizes, also deposition uniformity, defectivity level could change due to size/shape, so there are really too many variables for anyone directly working on it to even know.
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Thanks! I think that a big part of the reason that they are supposed to be less expensive is that they require less space and time to produce. They might not require aging for example.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I think based on 1st principle, yes, given the claim of significant higher energy density in the Goodenough cells, the material weight should be lower, so cheaper cost, and also size would be smaller, which leads to smaller equipment foorprint.
Its a lot of hearsay and does not add up for me as well. No fundamental information that is backed up with any data that readers can access. Such articles are always fishy to me. Also, even if not representative my subjective feeling is that the issues documented and talked about have been decreasing over time but I may be proven wrong and others may have better information....
Easy for some journalist to check if they have been moved back to the Service Center.
wsucougz
Member
You're going to appreciate the quality of your BMW's Interior even more when it inevitably becomes a piece of furniture in the driveway
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
Informative, but does not compare my early production 960 Volvo that blew its engine before 50K miles. It took two months for a replacement engine to be shipped to and installed in Seattle, Washington.
On my Toyota Tacoma it took months, and I do mean months to replace recalled leaf springs due to quality or design defect ~ pick your lie.
My VW beetle bug, 2001, the warning light went on almost in sync with driving by the dealership after warranty period. After thousands of dollars of misdiagnosed solutions it was finally repaired and I immediately traded it in for a different manufacturer.
Before buying my MX I talked to several owners and found no VW concerns.
We all know that Tesla is a prime target, and rest in the crosshairs of too many. Just as there are Bears on the take from fossil fuels, there are probably a few deceitful/disloyal employees. I trust they are few and far between. If some former employees also claim they were average or above and cannot figure out why they were fired; my guess on recent fired employees was due to huff-n-mouth disease, not to be confused with mad cow disease
Keep in mind, some employee loss was and will continue to be due to technology. This issue has been with us forever; however, more pronounced than ever since the ‘70s. Tesla is all about technology; downside is human carnage, and will always be that way. I never did see fossil fuel help coal minors, did you? Coal mining jobs have gone the way of the canary.
While we sit here defenseless waiting for grate news from the M3 front, FUD rules:-( At least for the weak of heart. Me, I just finished my decaf coffee, just saw the sun a second ago, and about to fix an electrical issue. I have to determine if it was bad wiring by contractor or defective part from HD:-(
The only odd news impacting Tesla, in my opinion, was the thieves in Utah. Thieves tell cops 'Mr. Tesla' said it was okay to swipe Teslas Not sure the water is safe to drink there:-( Back in ‘89 I came across a major that was being fired for stealing a saddle from an ROTC detachment in Utah. If you live there, you might want to check your water ~ do not assume it’s conversion to beer makes it okay
dandurston
Member
I'm skeptical for two reasons:
1) You can still reserve one of the 1000 Founders Edition Roadsters. Certainly the regular reservations will be more popular, but a ratio exceeding 45:1 is hard to believe. My guess is that 10-20% of reservations will be for the Founders, so based on that guess, since the Founders are <1k, the total reservations should be <5-10k.
2) If this employee didn't have the good sense to know the reservation count wasn't to be disclosed publicly, she's not the kind of person Tesla would be sharing sensitive information with. I highly doubt they email all their sales staff and say "hey we have 45k reservations, but don't tell anyone". There's no need for them to know, so they don't.
She might have been sincere in what she said, but she was probably confused. Maybe 45k is the number of California M3 reservations.
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@MitchJi I think you are absolutely correct on this. As you say, most of the time and cost lies with advancing the faster and more automated production equipment and ironing out many bugs until it reaches its design specs. As long as Tesla is willing to stabilize the design and custom hardware for awhile, it should be possible (with enough capital and management skill) to assemble many identical lines in as many GFs as they need. No other company has or plans to vertically integrate cell and pack manufacturing at this advanced a level.
I think it is a massive moat and one that is likely to last for many years.
Have you seen any recent progress updates on Goodenaugh's solid state Li cells? On a quick search, I did not see anything like that since the original spring announcement. One bit of speculation. If you were 94, who would you want to be your partner in making your last big advancement get to market and have a huge impact as fast as possible?
If this comes to fruition, Elon will be having an electric jet reveal event in 5 years. Then Boeing and Airbus will be catching the d****e chills the big ICE auto and truck companies are experiencing!
From the game of telephone, perhaps they misheard 4 to 5 thousand reservations?
Brilliant?
Seriously, I think this brain storming is very productive. Tech from first principles. Sounds plausible.
There are several sayings in the investment world to the effect that sometimes the most important skill is sitting still and waiting. This is what I'm doing right now, and based on my analysis, for at least the rest of December, and probably longer. If I take vacations from this forum, that's part of the reason. If I spend time on this forum, it's to prevent myself from doing something stupid like trading.
I remember when 100% of GM cars were *delivered* with multiple defects.
So I'm not sure what the point of this article is, unless it's to point out that the *industry leader* in quality control, Toyota, still has 10% coming off the line with defects.
It's standard in a car review to document the defect rate at delivery, and I believe it's still normal to have a couple of factory defects on every car. Most of these defects are somewhere between minor and insignificant -- paint blemishes, typically. I am not hearing reports of *major* defects.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
That is 5.5x years of Ferrari production!
It's also a completely fabricated number.
There is zero chance that this source has reliable information. As others have pointed out, beyond it making no sense for a random store employee to have the info, the number is unbelievable on its face--it's inconceivable that we'd be at 45k reservations without the Founders' series 1k selling out.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
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