2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[hiroshiy]

Toyota, Panasonic strike battery deal in threat to Tesla

Toyota and Panasonic said Wednesday that they are launching a "feasibility study" to investigate the technological potential of batteries that use prismatic cells, which are grouped together in pouches to power electric cars.


Note. personally not sure about the Threat part ..

Toyota and Panasonic annoucnes "future possible alliance" over EV batteries
As I wrote in the other thread, Japanese original article says a little bit different things. Basically they announce to consider alliance for batteries. Also Panasonic admitted cylindrical is the best format for EVs at least for now.

 

[scaesare]

Anyone wanna bet this month's total M3 delivery is at about 350-450?

At this rate, the Fremont factory is sweating profusely with pressure off to the roof..

Heck... there's a good chance you'd still lose if you bet against deliveries averaging 350-450 per week in December...

 

[Starno]

I expect first delivery to non employee next wednesday.

 

[dc_h]

Heck... there's a good chance you'd still lose if you bet against deliveries averaging 350-450 per day in December...

Corrected that for you.

 

[Zaxxon]

More on the supplier comments re: increasing to 5k units/week: Electrek. I hadn't seen the 'multiple suppliers,' 'mobilizing overtime,' and 'shipping by air' pieces last night. As Fred mentions in the article, that implies that we're not talking about a significant production ramp for 30-45 days from now as would ordinarily be the case when talking about supplier changes in Asia, but something sooner than that. I'll hold off on believing 5k units/week in the very near future, but this is about as clear an indicator that the days of low hundreds/week are numbered as we'll get short of Tesla outright saying so.

 

[RubberToe]

I expect first delivery to non employee next wednesday.

Already happened, see the other thread. Stage 4 cancer guy got his car.

RT

 

[EinSV]

More on the supplier comments re: increasing to 5k units/week: Electrek. I hadn't seen the 'multiple suppliers,' 'mobilizing overtime,' and 'shipping by air' pieces last night. As Fred mentions in the article, that implies that we're not talking about a significant production ramp for 30-45 days from now as would ordinarily be the case when talking about supplier changes in Asia, but something sooner than that. I'll hold off on believing 5k units/week in the very near future, but this is about as clear an indicator that the days of low hundreds/week are numbered as we'll get short of Tesla outright saying so.

Story still hasn't shown up on my apple news feed. Did a quick Google search for Tesla HOTA in the last 24 hours and none of the major outlets seem to have published a story yet (or it did not show up on the first few pages of hits).

Weird.

 

[hobbes]

Björn made some cool video for us - not that it is a fair race (looking at the car stats at the end), but nevertheless fun to watch!

 

[SteveG3]

Story still hasn't shown up on my apple news feed. Did a quick Google search for Tesla HOTA in the last 24 hours and none of the major outlets seem to have published a story yet (or it did not show up on the first few pages of hits).

Weird.

Noticed that too. Yet the stock is moving. So, institutional investors now check Electrek and/or TMC and/or Reddit throughout the day?

Maybe VA will set up a poll for us to guess what time conventional media starts reporting on this.

 

[EinSV]

Noticed that too. Yet the stock is moving. So, institutional investors now check Electrek and/or TMC and/or Reddit throughout the day?

Probably, although the story also appeared on stocknews.com and some auto-oriented outlets.

This is especially weird since Reuters and many other major outlets ran with essentially the exact same story in late October except the shoe was on the other foot (same supplier leaked reduced instead of increased orders).

I assume they'll pick it up during the day given the stock price jump but still ....

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Story still hasn't shown up on my apple news feed. Did a quick Google search for Tesla HOTA in the last 24 hours and none of the major outlets seem to have published a story yet (or it did not show up on the first few pages of hits).

Weird.

I guess you could say the same about the earlier order cut.......................

Tesla cuts Model 3 part orders to Taiwan supplier Hota: report

Tesla Model 3 supplier says part orders have been reduced to 3,000 per week in December: report

Tesla dialed back Model 3 parts orders by 40%, says Taiwan supplier

Tesla Cuts Model 3 Orders From Core Supplier By 40 Percent | OilPrice.com

Tesla Cuts Vendor Orders: Could Be In A World Of Hurt - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Tesla Cuts Model 3 Orders From Core Supplier By 40%

Tesla Model 3 Production Woes Continue As Automaker Will Reportedly Slash Orders For Parts By 40%

Tesla cuts Model 3 part orders to Taiwan supplier Hota • r/teslamotors

Tesla cuts Model 3 part orders to Taiwan supplier Hota: Report - ET Auto

Tesla slashes Model 3 supplier order by 40 percent - LeftLaneNews

Never forget, always remind: "Dance on Failure"

 

[SteveG3]

I guess you could say the same about the October news around production cut.......................

Tesla cuts Model 3 part orders to Taiwan supplier Hota: report

Tesla Model 3 supplier says part orders have been reduced to 3,000 per week in December: report

Tesla dialed back Model 3 parts orders by 40%, says Taiwan supplier

Tesla Cuts Model 3 Orders From Core Supplier By 40 Percent | OilPrice.com

Tesla Cuts Vendor Orders: Could Be In A World Of Hurt - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Tesla Cuts Model 3 Orders From Core Supplier By 40%

Tesla Model 3 Production Woes Continue As Automaker Will Reportedly Slash Orders For Parts By 40%

Tesla cuts Model 3 part orders to Taiwan supplier Hota • r/teslamotors

Tesla cuts Model 3 part orders to Taiwan supplier Hota: Report - ET Auto

Tesla slashes Model 3 supplier order by 40 percent - LeftLaneNews

Never forget: "Dance on Failure"

all consistent with the theory of fossil fuel/ICE incumbents massive concentrated wealth taking a hit on a many years long short position that pales in comparison to the enormous return on investment of the added cash of slowing the energy/transportation disruption by some years. circumstantial, but, I wouldn’t be surprised at all.

 

[goinfraftw]

One "What If?" that keeps on coming up for me:

Are the folks working on the Model 3 production ramp taking in learnings from there and applying them to Model S/X Q4 production? If so, is that leading to better cost savings and higher output on the lines. I'm wondering if there's a potential for a hidden breakout quarter between all of the CapEx for Model 3 to be subverted by a significant decrease in CapEx in handling S/X lines. Thoughts?

 

[Reciprocity]

One "What If?" that keeps on coming up for me:

Are the folks working on the Model 3 production ramp taking in learnings from there and applying them to Model S/X Q4 production? If so, is that leading to better cost savings and higher output on the lines. I'm wondering if there's a potential for a hidden breakout quarter between all of the CapEx for Model 3 to be subverted by a significant decrease in CapEx in handling S/X lines. Thoughts?

Probably not as much as the other way. Model 3 production ramp and design was based on what was learned from S/X. The entire glass roof is designed in part to allow for more robot access during the process. It certainly should play into the S/X future refreshes. Elon and Tesla have already stated that they have made thousands of tweaks to S/X production lines over the years and I am sure those are continuing, but I would guess that anyone that would be working on those tweaks are focused on the model 3 ramp and any improvement/learning would be months away from being applied to S/X.

 

[DragonWatch]

I doubt Hesla is moving the SP today Gas company actually ruined a Tesla Model S with a hydrogen fuel cell system

 

[Dynastar]

In regards to air shipping parts, there's also a PR win here for Tesla pushing hard right before the end of the year: when they announce Q4 unit numbers they can say "and we exited the year producing X,000 Model 3 per week".

 

[dmckinstry]

Who wants to bet me on FSD demo by year-end?

I’ll take “won’t happen” and give ten-to-one odds.

Which year?

 

[SteveG3]

I doubt Hesla is moving the SP today Gas company actually ruined a Tesla Model S with a hydrogen fuel cell system

Yes that article from Electrek released an hour ago is currently the first item under news in a Google search for TSLA. Electrek’s article released 5 hours ago on the big Model 3 bottleneck looking like it’s clearing out? still MIA in those same Google search results.

 

[Drax7]

Elon hire this brilliant woman on the spot !!!!!

 

[SteveG3]

Edit: it’s up to $75K, apparently rebating 60% of the incremental cost vs. a diesel truck per Reuters. So a very large incentive, but not completely off the charts.

Looks like a $75K (Canadian dollar) incentive for electric trucks in Ontario is coming. Tesla semi becomes tremendously compelling there.

Ontario to introduce rebates to boost electric truck demand