2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[RobStark]

. So really, 4WD will likely be offered right from the start for the public. (Just my opinion.)

Model 3 will have no stinking locking differentials. Model 3 will be AWD.

 

[RobStark]

On the Union organizing story, which sounds like total BS to me, but is being picked up by a lot of click hungry "news" organizations. Does anyone know if the claim that Fremont workers are making $17-21 an hour is anywhere close to true? I had assumed that they would be making more like $25-30. Although that is based on no actual knowledge.

When Tesla had their last job fair it was $17 for entry level unskilled labor.

Young people with no skills wanting to be trained in something.


California Minimum Wage.
c

 

[racer26]

My mistake, I misread your post on your math. Not to be too nitpicky, what's your opinion on the M3's AP2 HW cost vs the stuff in the loaded Cruze? A loaded Cruze has rear camera, and whatever radar/sonar that does forward collision warning, lane keep assist, side bind spot and rear cross traffic alert.

I believe that most modern cars from all the major manufacturers which are sporting the active safety features (FCW, LKA, etc) have most of the same hardware as what makes AP tick. FCW requires some forward facing radar/sonar, LKA requires forward facing cameras, side and rear facing stuff requires ultrasonics and/or cameras, most have a backup camera now.

The differential cost of the few extra cameras AP2 uses (8 total I think it was?) should be pretty small in the grand scheme of things - they're not mega-high res cameras with fancy optics or anything, but rather merely decent midrange cameras with simple optics. I expect the total hardware cost of the sensor suite for AP2 is in the ballpark of $1000/car, including all 8 cameras, the ultrasonics and the radar unit.

This is part of the magic of Tesla's approach to FSD as compared to Cruise Automation, Waymo, etc - the LIDAR unit is the most expensive piece, because they require complex spinning optics. Its ALSO the most difficult to blend in to an existing car design in an aesthetically pleasing way.

I actually agree with Tesla, the LIDAR shouldn't be necessary. The cameras give 360 degree vision, and the radar unit combined with 3 forward facing cameras gives 3 dimensional spatial awareness in the 120 or so forward facing degrees. The side/rear cameras and side/rear ultrasonics give a lower-res but still useful spatial awareness beside and behind. This is already considerably more information than a human driver can take in with his senses, and so the car should be able to drive at least as well as a human with this information alone, in theory.

 

[RobStark]

TeslaSalaries

• DurandalAI
• Feb 10, 2017

Tesla Salaries

Production specialist start at $14.39 but interns start at $23.11?

Production specialist vs Production associate which makes $17.37/hr?

I guess "production specialist" are the temps but it still does not make sense they make less than interns.

 

[tander]

Model 3 will have no stinking locking differentials. Model 3 will be AWD.

Probably a dumb question but not big on the mechanics of offroading, do the advantages of diff locks still apply with electric vehicles? Could it be done with a software mode?

 

[Irishjugg]

What exactly do you mean by a low run rate? Elon said 100-200k in 2017 (starting in September-November?).

Low only means low compared to the final planned run rate. I haven't done the math on what run rate I think true 35k base trims become profitable so I don't have a specific number here. For sale of argument let's say anything under 50-70% of the 500k rate is what I meant by "low."
The point of the statement was that I do not think that base models will be profitably built until some threshold run rate is reached, and that I expect that to be in H2 18 at a minimum.

FWIW I expect Tesla to "miss" that 100-200k number in 2017, or if it means run rate to achieve it a few months into 2018 as tends to be the case with the way goals are set at Tesla. I also don't see this "miss" as a problem of any kind.

Why do you think that alien dreadnaught v0.5 will be slower than the fastest conventional line which Elon constantly refers to as one car per 25 seconds?! Production of an ev designed for easy production should be able to increase the speed compared with a conventional ice even without any ad innovations.

I don't know if 0.5 will be slower or faster than a conventional line, but I do not think it will be twice as fast or more at that stage. That was in response to another poster arguing for almost negligible labor costs, which I don't think will be true until version 2 or so.
The public communication on such a focus on machine design came a bit late IMO for 0.5 to be super revolutionary. I also expect your normal new assembly line early hickups to slow it down and increase labor costs (another justification for Tesla's plan to wait to build base models).

 

[JRP3]

Production specialist start at $14.39 but interns start at $23.11?

I had the same reaction.

 

[JRP3]

Probably a dumb question but not big on the mechanics of offroading, do the advantages of diff locks still apply with electric vehicles? Could it be done with a software mode?

Unless it's a 4 motor AWD like the Rimac I'd think a locking or limited slip differential would still be beneficial.

 

[kenliles]

Young people with no skills wanting to be trained in something.

us Old people with no skilz,
invest in young people with skilz.
Go Tesla training!

 

[glhs272]

Probably a dumb question but not big on the mechanics of offroading, do the advantages of diff locks still apply with electric vehicles? Could it be done with a software mode?

Yes and no. The car can detect wheel slip and use the brakes to redirect the torque to the non-slipping wheels. But not as elegant as a true locking differential. This video gives a pretty good demonstration:

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Moran said he has been working at Tesla for 4 years. Assuming this is true, he has been at Tesla since around the time the UAW first attempted to bring Tesla into the "UAW Family".

UAW Looks to Organize Tesla | 1853 Chairman.com

Moran says he went through a lot of trouble to pass around the article, to recruit workers to join his "cause". However, Moran also implies in his article that Tesla is negligent when it comes to worker safety. The moment he stated this his entire article in my view crossed a line from being a reasonable complaint to a dubious hit piece.

UAW did not deny they were at some point or are currently supporting Moran with his agenda. UAW simply denied Moran "has been paid by UAW".
Moran stated UAW has been actively helping him.

Many things about Morgan's article don't make sense. Also, his decision to remove the comment section from his article certainly doesn't help his case.

Given the tactics UAW has used in the past, nothing would surprise me.

UAW officials take an auto worker for a ride - World Socialist Web Site

 

[Curt Renz]

Note the closing paragraph in a post written nearly four years ago after I had been with TMC for a week: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

And just for context, I include this post from a forum member of that time,which I saw appeared in the same thread, not too far before Curt's post in 2013:

"Sold half of my position today at $39.30. Hoping for a dip to get back in. I have no crystal ball but as many of you have pointed out, I think a dip back to ~$35 is more likely than breaking $40 at this point."

Indeed, Papafox, the posts surrounding that one of mine in March of 2013 tended toward a consensus that as TSLA was getting near its all-time high of around $40, it would wise to sell while around $39 and buy back on dips below $35. As it turned out, those who at that time were selling at $39 were left in the dust behind one of the most explosive stock rallies in recent years.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I believe that most modern cars from all the major manufacturers which are sporting the active safety features (FCW, LKA, etc) have most of the same hardware as what makes AP tick. FCW requires some forward facing radar/sonar, LKA requires forward facing cameras, side and rear facing stuff requires ultrasonics and/or cameras, most have a backup camera now.

The differential cost of the few extra cameras AP2 uses (8 total I think it was?) should be pretty small in the grand scheme of things - they're not mega-high res cameras with fancy optics or anything, but rather merely decent midrange cameras with simple optics. I expect the total hardware cost of the sensor suite for AP2 is in the ballpark of $1000/car, including all 8 cameras, the ultrasonics and the radar unit.

This is part of the magic of Tesla's approach to FSD as compared to Cruise Automation, Waymo, etc - the LIDAR unit is the most expensive piece, because they require complex spinning optics. Its ALSO the most difficult to blend in to an existing car design in an aesthetically pleasing way.

I actually agree with Tesla, the LIDAR shouldn't be necessary. The cameras give 360 degree vision, and the radar unit combined with 3 forward facing cameras gives 3 dimensional spatial awareness in the 120 or so forward facing degrees. The side/rear cameras and side/rear ultrasonics give a lower-res but still useful spatial awareness beside and behind. This is already considerably more information than a human driver can take in with his senses, and so the car should be able to drive at least as well as a human with this information alone, in theory.

Is there info on how much the Titan chip cost?

 

[dennis]

Production specialist start at $14.39 but interns start at $23.11?

Production specialist vs Production associate which makes $17.37/hr?

I guess "production specialist" are the temps but it still does not make sense they make less than interns.

"Product Specialist" not "Production Specialist". In other words the people who answer your questions at Tesla stores/galleries.

An acquaintance graduating this year from a top college got less than $20/hr for his internship last summer at the Gigafactory. But he did get lots of overtime.

 

[racer26]

Is there info on how much the Titan chip cost?

Why do people focus so much on this? Its a GPU, they're not expensive. It does not take supercomputer-class computing power to do the sort of computations required for self driving - any semi-modern gaming GPU could do it.

Its actually quite amazing what can be done with cheap GPUs. A former contracted coworker worked on an outside project for which the customer originally bought a 24 core IBM server w/ 72GB of RAM for around $50,000 to crunch numbers with. They later achieved better performance with 2 nVidia ~$600 desktop class graphics cards in a SLI configuration doing the crunching in an ordinary desktop PC and literally gave him the $50,000 server, because they were no longer using it. That server is now the corporate server at my workplace.

The pricing quoted by nVidia for their DrivePX2 platform was for development kits, not actual production quantity equipment.

I imagine the nVidia chip driving AP2 is no more than $200 in the quantities Tesla is buying it.

 

[kenliles]

Not scheduled to launch until 18th (conditionally). But first Pad39A launch (moon launch pad) since final Space Shuttle 5 years ago
so a good weekend read.
SpaceX moved the Falcon into place on the pad for test firing in next few days

Elon excited about it as he should be...
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket is about to launch from a pad used for the first Moon mission - The Verge
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket is about to launch from a pad used for the first Moon mission

 

[glhs272]

Not scheduled to launch until 18th (conditionally). But first Pad13 launch (moon launch pad) since final Space Shuttle 5 years ago
so a good weekend read.
SpaceX moved the Falcon into place on the pad for test firing in next few days

Elon excited about it as he should be...
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket is about to launch from a pad used for the first Moon mission - The Verge
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket is about to launch from a pad used for the first Moon mission

Pad 39A I think.

 

[winfield100]

Two points:
(1) it doesn't necessarily happen. Remember that I'm only *estimating* the "unwilling to sell at any price" investors. It's possible -- likely -- that large numbers of the institutions have a target sell price and will happily sell shares after a while. Indeed, it's possible that Tesla, Inc. has a target sell price and will issue new shares when the stock gets to that price... which could put enough new shares outstanding on the market to let the shorts exit smoothly.
(2) even if it is going to happen, the current state can continue indefinitely as long as the short sellers aren't forced to close their positions. It doesn't turn into a true squeeze until they're racing for the exits (due to margin calls, bankruptcy, etc.)


Yes. And it doesn't always cascade.


Haven't looked into it.


Unlikely. The avalanche is started if shorts get margin-called and *have* to close their positions. At the moment, they are probably mostly borrowing against very large positions in other stocks to finance their TSLA positions; with the market as a whole going up they have more and more collateral to maintain their positions with. If TSLA makes a very strong move up while the rest of the market simultaneously makes a very strong move down, that would probably trigger the squeeze.

thank you. I am "but an egg" when it comes to the market.
using your scenerio, would it be reasonable IF there was a strong move up, IF some shorts had wrong bets against a number of stocks, such as both TSLA ans NFLX, etc so if shorts could be "encouraged" to short several wrong stocks, that could hasten phone calls from brokerage.

 

[kenliles]

Pad 39A I think.

Yeah. Too much wine I guess;
Corrected original post. Thanks!

 

[glhs272]

Yeah. Too much wine I guess;
Corrected original post. Thanks!

I'll take some of what your having