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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Bat crazy:
Stanphyl Ends 2016 Up Up 31% Sure Of Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Collapse

Despite December’s increase in Tesla’s stock price, it sure wasn’t a propitious month for subsidy queen Elon Musk as President-elect Trump appointed a short seller’s dream team to various key cabinet posts, naming friends of plants Scott Pruitt to head the EPA, Ryan Zinke as Interior Secretary, Rick Perry as Energy Secretary and the CEO of ExxonMobil (!!!) as Secretary of State. Although I’m sure if the government subsidy were big enough Musk would happily modify the Model S to run on a 392 hemi four-barrel, we remain short shares of Tesla Motors Inc. (ticker: TSLA; short basis: $225.51; December close: $213.69) as


I continue to believe that it’s the market’s biggest single-company stock bubble.

Rarely does a month go by without a blatant new deception from Elon Musk, and December was no exception...

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So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition, and things will only get worse once it does. Thus this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its approximately $40 billion enterprise value and—thanks to that debt—may eventually be worth “zero".

Is there a way to obtain the records of "Stanphyl"? It is next to impossible that Stanphyl was up 30% considering in its alleged "quarterly report" Spiegel claims his firms primary position was being short Tesla.


1) Isn't it illegal for Spiegel to strongly imply he is a analyst?

2) At what point does Spiegel's conduct count as harassment? He is attempting to slander Elon and Tesla using false information, incorrect assumptions, and is pretending to be a credible analyst, (when in reality he is not an analyst), and is basically the sole person managing a fund that is likely a fake hedge fund?
 
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Battery expert(s) opinion needed.

EM indicated in a tweet exchange with Fred L. that the Supercharger V 3 would be capable of a much faster charge rate than is currently available. Question: Will the this be possible for our current (old) battery packs OR will it only be available for the newer battery packs which will be supplied with GF batteries?
 
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Happy New Year :)

From the January 1917 Scientific American

In the year just closed, the U.S. has produced more automobiles, both passenger carrying and commercial vehicle types, than have ever before been made in the same period. The development of the automobile mechanism has reached that point where the majority of automobiles incorporate the same essential principles. It matters not whether the engine is one of four or twelve cylinders or the selling price of the car $500 or $5,000, the proportions of the constituent parts and the best materials for the different members are now so well known that engine or chassis failure, resulting from poor design, is practically unknown on even the cheapest cars.
 
I wonder what the motivation behind that may be?
They are still figuring out how to implement it.
Someone please remind me what the cost of lifetime supercharging will be, once new buyers are required to pay for it? I haven't seen mention of this in awhile. TIA.

The company has yet to disclose the price per kWh of the Supercharger credits that will become the new standard, but Tesla did write in a statement that “prices may fluctuate over time and vary regionally based on the cost of electricity”. It also claimed that the Supercharger Network will “never be a profit center” and the new program is instead being implemented to finance the expansion of the network.
 
I've always wondered how he can claim being up so much despite being short TSLA for as long as he's been and never covering. He must've done phenomenally to be up despite losing on TSLA. That, or he hasn't factored in the cost of buying back those loaned shares and returning them yet?

I wondered the same thing. It doesn't add up. He must have only been short about 5 shares of TSLA when he started shorting at $90. He dollar averaged up from there (according to his comments on SA) to just over $200 the last I saw him publically say so. The share price was still rising at that point to the ATH. So he can't have been short very many to start and he had to have covered at least once at a loss for him to have his current short basis.

Frankly, he's shown me enough of his personality over the last 4+ years that I don't believe much of anything coming out of his mouth or fingers.
 
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On the subject of SP and delivery numbers, what would people consider the cutoff point between it being positive and negative news?

Meeting 2016 year guidance would be the logical answer to that question, I guess....

I know it's hard to predict and there have been times a guidance miss didn't hurt the SP much, or a beat didn't help much....

Good question. I have been considering this very issue and came to the estimate of 24,000 deliveries in Q4 as the +/_ number. This would be a little more than 1,000 below guidance and easily excused by analysts considering the introduction of autopilot2 hardware.
 
Informative discussion with Jay Cole who does the monthly estimates of Tesla car sales for Inside EVs. The discussion is in the responses at the end of the article. His estimation methods are similar to ours. I sense some frustration with and distrust of Tesla.

World EV Sales Up 39% In November, Tesla Model S And Nissan LEAF Battle For 2016 Title In December

Very interesting. Thanks for that.
Take home for me is that IEV thinks there was only one week of production plant downtime this quarter, and that AP2 cars were being produced after that point, and stockpiled..which is a much better scenario than prolonged production problems.
 
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Well, on my list posted earlier (which I can't find the anymore) of things to watch out for before Model 3, I am 2/2 on things that Tesla is late with. I had release of supercharging cost structure and EAP with minor regressions before end of year. My prediction for 2017 : everything Elon says, will happen, it just will be later than everyone expects.
 
Well, on my list posted earlier (which I can't find the anymore) of things to watch out for before Model 3, I am 2/2 on things that Tesla is late with. I had release of supercharging cost structure and EAP with minor regressions before end of year. My prediction for 2017 : everything Elon says, will happen, it just will be later than everyone expects.

Your list is here

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

I bookmarked it ;)
 
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