2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[dennis]

On a completely different subject -

Today on the local CBS news radio station I heard an advertisement for the Chevy Bolt at Dublin Chevrolet done by ...Steve Wozniak.

 

[jesselivenomore]

98 MWh of TE, around how much revenue does that translate to?

 

[sub]

Spiegel got clowned, entertaining. You could see the defeat is his expression near the end.

I'm holding out hope for my first model 3 delivery in ~12-15 months, I'm guessing I'm still top 100k having waited in line pre reveal.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Based on Elon's projection on supplier schedule, add 1 month delay between production and delivery, I have the following estimate:

Jul: 1K prod, 0 deliv
Aug: 2K prod, 1K deliv
Sep: 4K prod, 2K deliv
Oct: 8K prod, 4K deliv (my extrapolated production rate from this point on)
Nov: 12K prod, 8K deliv
Dec: 16K prod, 12K delv (16K prod ~ 5K/wk target)

So total 2017 M3 delivery is ~27K

We already have 110K cumulative US deliveries by end of 2016. 2017 total MS/MX estimate 100-120K, say 60% in US, so another ~65K US deliveries. If all the 27K M3 are in US, we may go over 200K.

Would Tesla move some of the delivery to other countries to keep under 200K in 2017?

 

[Gerasimental]

98 MWh of TE, around how much revenue does that translate to?

$39m using the following assumptions:

• 98MWh were made up of 103 * 950kWh systems (500kW for 2 hours)
• Website price of $380,000 paid for each system

This revenue is the equivalent of:

• 390 cars at $100k each.

 

[mmd]

$39m using the following assumptions:

• 98MWh were made up of 103 * 950kWh systems (500kW for 2 hours)
• Website price of $380,000 paid for each system

This revenue is the equivalent of:

• 390 cars at $100k each.

I doubt AMS signed a deal to buy 500 MWh at retail rate. They probably got a sweet deal, and so did Tesla, as Tesla set its foot in energy storage back in June 2015. Notice, AMS has still not exhausted buying those 500 MWh of storage.

 

[mmd]

This statement indicates an inability to project what the obvious future realities will be.

Tesla employees aren't made of money. They can't afford to buy a car and keep it in the garage, and get to work some other way. And in any case, Tesla employees will (I assume) be proud of what their company has created and won't mind driving it around in public.

My point: within days, there will be dozens of Youtube and Facebook videos of Model 3's getting driven back and forth around Fremont, and wherever else the employees go. WE ARE GOING TO KNOW that they have been delivered.

Same thing happened for Model X after the reveal (as well as before).

Hello Tesla NDAs

For Model X, there was a formal reveal aka delivery event. There were only 6 hand built cars that got delivered. But many people got to sit in those 6, and got rides in them. Is a delivery event planned for Model 3 before they are given out to employees?

PS: Does anyone have the GF production numbers? How many giga whs is it producing now? This is important, as it indicates the run rate of Model 3 one month ahead (assuming 4 weeks aging).

 

[hoang51]

...

Would Tesla move some of the delivery to other countries to keep under 200K in 2017?

Wouldn't make sense for a business strategy. It is in best interest to ship to foreign countries in bulk, not left overs. Elon also answered your type of question albiet a bit different here on his Twitter: Elon Musk on Twitter

At a US business standpoint, Tesla should withhold US delivery at 199,999 cars and then deliver the built up stock pile the next starting quarter to maximize tax credits for the US. That seems in line with the Twitter response from Elon.

 

[dennis]

Hello Tesla NDAs

For Model X, there was a formal reveal aka delivery event for Model X. There were only 6 hand built cars that got delivered. But many people got to sit in those 6, and got rides in them. Is a delivery event planned for Model 3 before they are given out to employees?

Right - "You are not allowed to drive your new Model 3 anywhere it may be photographed. However if it is photographed you must approach the person who did this and demand that they erase the photo while you are observing."

Photos of employee Model 3's will be all over the internet.

 

[dennis]

Based on Elon's projection on supplier schedule, add 1 month delay between production and delivery, I have the following estimate:

Jul: 1K prod, 0 deliv
Aug: 2K prod, 1K deliv
Sep: 4K prod, 2K deliv
Oct: 8K prod, 4K deliv (my extrapolated production rate from this point on)
Nov: 12K prod, 8K deliv
Dec: 16K prod, 12K delv (16K prod ~ 5K/wk target)

So total 2017 M3 delivery is ~27K

It makes sense sense everything in the release was weekly volumes that the 1K/2K/4K forecasts to suppliers in Q3 were weekly, not monthly volumes. Also, since they said they would reach 5K/week sometime in Q4 that the supplier forecast would have to reach 5K weekly very early in Q4.

 

[mmd]

Right - "You are not allowed to drive your new Model 3 anywhere it may be photographed. However if it is photographed you must approach the person who did this and demand that they erase the photo while you are observing."

Photos of employee Model 3's will be all over the internet.

You really should be reading my responses in the context My response was on posting youtube videos, presumably by Tesla employees.
At this stage, people are interested in the interiors and details of Model 3. You seem to be answering about spy shots, that we weren't talking about.

 

[hoang51]

Based on Elon's projection on supplier schedule, add 1 month delay between production and delivery, I have the following estimate:

Jul: 1K prod, 0 deliv
Aug: 2K prod, 1K deliv
Sep: 4K prod, 2K deliv
Oct: 8K prod, 4K deliv (my extrapolated production rate from this point on)
Nov: 12K prod, 8K deliv
Dec: 16K prod, 12K delv (16K prod ~ 5K/wk target)

So total 2017 M3 delivery is ~27K

I think you miscalculated in the estimated production numbers for the Model 3. According to others such as this post here, 2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

July has Model build rate of about 1,000/week, not 1,000/month. Same issue for subsequent months. So July should have an average of 4K, August 8K, etc... So we should see about estimated 60K Model 3 delivered, +/- few thousands.

 

[MitchJi]

LOL at disagrees.

Come on, 99.9999% of TMCers know that is sarcastic without sarcasm tags.

Disagrees by bears?

5000 per week for AD 0.5 is impressive. However @MitchJi I smell some chocolate:

5000/week = 1000/day = 50/hour
10,000/week = 2,000/day = 100/hour
I see no way that Tesla will be doing anything less than 5 day weeks and 20 hour days (2 10-hour shifts).

From the ER:
10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018

I agreed to send you chocolate if Tesla isn't producing 2 cars a minute by mid 2018. That was because you continued to believe that for Tesla to even consider anything close to that number was crazy. If they miss, and I happily send you chocolate (IMO chances are close to zero), I was still correct that that was their plan. Also I stated the opinion that the numbers in the pdf were deliberately understated, which is still probably IMO the case. So I feel completely vindicated by the call. But don't worry, when reports that Tesla is producing 2 cars a minute start coming out of Fremont in 2018 you'll make enough on the price increase on one share to pay for your chocolate.

Totally bummed by Wheeler leaving. I thought he would make a great COO. IMO, he is responsible for the cost containment vs. Ahuja

One of the reasons for Wheeler's cost containment is he said when Elon hired him he was told "cash is king". With a new emphasis and Wheeler staying on to help with the transition I think that Ahuja will do well.

So for those interested, I will host a Google Hangout tonight at 9pm EST. I doubt I can record it. Drop me a PM with your Google credentials to be added to the mass invite.

I can probably record it as a screen capture. Let me know.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I don't know about you guys but Mark S defeat on CNBC was the bigger news of the night. Not sure if I learn all that much from the ER/ conference call that wasn't already known or suspected here on TMC.

Jason Wheeler definitely a loss for Tesla.

 

[geneclean55]

You really should be reading my responses in the context My response was on posting youtube videos, presumably by Tesla employees.
At this stage, people are interested in the interiors and details of Model 3. You seem to be answering about spy shots, that we weren't talking about.

Yes! Finally found a great reason to try out my new SLR camera with super expensive long range lens to capture a spy shot of the elusive model 3.

Wait....what?? I can just pull up next to one at the lights when the driver has his window down? DAMMIT!!

 

[Buddyroe]

What jumps out at me from the 4th quarter report is the piss-poor sales of the Model X. How can a full-size luxury sedan, which is a car class whose sales as a whole have been on a massive downward spiral, outsell a luxury SUV, which is in a class of cars whose sales are shooting to the stars.

Just a TERRIBLE mistake by Musk and everyone gives him a pass. Take those FWDs away and the car comes out a year sooner, costs a billion dollars less to design, and sells twice as many, at twice the profitability.

I'm the biggest Tesla and Elon fan there is, but he needs to be held responsible for that massive blunder called the "X". And more importantly, he needs to fix it so Tesla can actually start taking advantage of the SUV market. The S was and is a grand slam. The X, no matter what any current owners says, is a MASSIVE failure and is detriment to the future of Tesla.

Come on Elon - FIX IT!!

 

[Buddyroe]

What jumps out at me from the 4th quarter report is the piss-poor sales of the Model X. How can a full-size luxury sedan, which is a car class whose sales as a whole have been on a massive downward spiral, outsell a luxury SUV, which is in a class of cars whose sales are shooting to the stars.

Just a TERRIBLE mistake by Musk and everyone gives him a pass. Take those FWDs away and the car comes out a year sooner, costs a billion dollars less to design, and sells twice as many, at twice the profitability.

I'm the biggest Tesla and Elon fan there is, but he needs to be held responsible for that massive blunder called the "X". And more importantly, he needs to fix it so Tesla can actually start taking advantage of the SUV market. The S was and is a grand slam. The X, no matter what any current owners says, is a MASSIVE failure and is detriment to the future of Tesla.

Come on Elon - FIX IT!!

 

[3Victoria]

What jumps out at me from the 4th quarter report is the piss-poor sales of the Model X. How can a full-size luxury sedan, which is a car class whose sales as a whole have been on a massive downward spiral, outsell a luxury SUV, which is in a class of cars whose sales are shooting to the stars.

Just a TERRIBLE mistake by Musk and everyone gives him a pass. Take those FWDs away and the car comes out a year sooner, costs a billion dollars less to design, and sells twice as many, at twice the profitability.

I'm the biggest Tesla and Elon fan there is, but he needs to be held responsible for that massive blunder called the "X". And more importantly, he needs to fix it so Tesla can actually start taking advantage of the SUV market. The S was and is a grand slam. The X, no matter what any current owners says, is a MASSIVE failure and is detriment to the future of Tesla.

Come on Elon - FIX IT!!

X is great flashy advertisement for Tesla.

 

[techmaven]

Got started in the hangout, not sure where the rest of you went.

 

[Buddyroe]

X is great flashy advertisement for Tesla.

Tesla needed the X to be a money maker. SUVs are where the money is right now (and maybe for a LONG time). Show some flash somewhere else. Every other car company is making MASSIVE profits on SUVs right now and Tesla is sucking hind tit.

We all know the M3 won't be a massive money maker. The high-end luxury cars were suppose to make the money and carry this company. Unfortunately, the X has been a drain. Spin it how you want, but that makes you no different than the morons on TV saying Tesla loses money on every car sold because they have a net loss.

Until we ALL (including Elon) accept that the X was, and is, a massive failure, Tesla will be a company at risk.

I know several families, including my own, who are in the market for a luxury SUV, but would never consider the X due to its complexity and continued need for repairs.

You can make yourself feel better by calling the X an advertising car for Tesla, but the truth it, no car company is making money on mid-size sedans, and neither will Tesla in the long run.

FIX THE X!!!