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Totally bummed by Wheeler leaving.I thought he would make a great COO. IMO, he is responsible for the cost containment vs. Ahuja
Given past history it isn't out of the question that he returns at some point.
My 2 cents
1. Reiterating Model 3 timing and setting expectations on 2017 & 2018 volume is HUGE!
2. Increasing cash to $3.3B is very impressive
3. Wheeler leaving after such a short period of time is a minus
4. TE starting to become meaningful
5. New GFs announcements by year end is very very interesting
1. Reiterating Model 3 timing and setting expectations on 2017 & 2018 volume is HUGE!
2. Increasing cash to $3.3B is very impressive
3. Wheeler leaving after such a short period of time is a minus
4. TE starting to become meaningful
5. New GFs announcements by year end is very very interesting
After having enough of a laugh, my conscience got to me. As much as Spiegel deserved it, it seems CNBC set him up as a punching bag.
i would like to thank Mark B Spiegel sincerely for the run from $180 -> ~$280 in ~11 weeks
im 1/3 the way to a loaded Model 3 so far, and with shares left over for my kids to inherit
Krugerrand
Meow
You need to tell your conscience to be quiet. Mr. Spiegel deserves all the Karma he gets; the smug sob spinning back and forth in his chair... I was hoping he'd lean back a bit so we could get a look at the soles of his shoes.
erthquake
Active Member
Me too. But now that I see him squawking again on Twitter, my conscience is clear.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Yuuuuge, based on Tesla's previous target of late 2017, how many were expecting M3 volume production by Sep? I was expecting Oct/Nov and I thought I was being pretty optimistic. Now I just need the M3 pt3 to see the final version.
Spiegels mannerisms seemed... I don't know the best word to use.... edgy? jittery? overwrought?
Would make me nervous If that guy was investing my money even If I didn't already know the TSLA backstory.
Would make me nervous If that guy was investing my money even If I didn't already know the TSLA backstory.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Letting anyone else invest my money makes me nervous
Waiting4M3
Active Member
as if he can still afford coke
This ER reaction is exactly what I wanted. Fact that there is no real negative news is VERY positive because there is nothing significant to break the stock uptrend.
- Bad news of Wheeler leaving is mitigated by Deepak returning.
- Cash position is strong. I'm somewhat disappointed that Elon gave it away that it makes sense to do a capital raise.
- Happy they somewhat lowballed guidance and did it just for 1H17.
Reiterating Model 3 production start in July and confidence for 5000/wk in 2017 is the biggy. We are now 5 months away from Model 3 hitting the streets. I'd be surprised if TSLA drops significantly before then. The market is not dumb. How can any analyst downgrade the stock so close to Model 3 launch? We may even see an upgrade from Adam Jonas based on Model 3 confidence and potential for insurance revenue (positive answer to his question).
- Bad news of Wheeler leaving is mitigated by Deepak returning.
- Cash position is strong. I'm somewhat disappointed that Elon gave it away that it makes sense to do a capital raise.
- Happy they somewhat lowballed guidance and did it just for 1H17.
Reiterating Model 3 production start in July and confidence for 5000/wk in 2017 is the biggy. We are now 5 months away from Model 3 hitting the streets. I'd be surprised if TSLA drops significantly before then. The market is not dumb. How can any analyst downgrade the stock so close to Model 3 launch? We may even see an upgrade from Adam Jonas based on Model 3 confidence and potential for insurance revenue (positive answer to his question).
One big positive on this release that has not received much attention is the comment that the long term gross margin on energy storage is "expected to be similar to Automotive." Keep in mind that in other calls and presentations, JB has said that associated operating expenses (e.g. selling and service costs) on energy storage will be extremely low. If true, energy storage could be very, very profitable category in a couple of years from now. The category is still small, but they expect a growth rate of twice the automotive business (the market is huge now and it expands as solar gets cheaper). JB is not a person prone to hyperbole so I see the makings of sleeper category here. Curious as to whether others on this forum have thoughts about this. CA
Also significant is the second part of this line from the report:
"Long term, gross margin is expected to be similar to Automotive, but with a significantly higher revenue growth rate."
Chanos seems to be sort of a bottom indicator. He gets a regular biweekly cnbc appearance to pump the short trade when Tesla is down, but disappears when it is on a move up.
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MartinAustin
Active Member
This statement indicates an inability to project what the obvious future realities will be.
Tesla employees aren't made of money. They can't afford to buy a car and keep it in the garage, and get to work some other way. And in any case, Tesla employees will (I assume) be proud of what their company has created and won't mind driving it around in public.
My point: within days, there will be dozens of Youtube and Facebook videos of Model 3's getting driven back and forth around Fremont, and wherever else the employees go. WE ARE GOING TO KNOW that they have been delivered.
Same thing happened for Model X after the reveal (as well as before).
MartinAustin
Active Member
Yes! Gone are the incredible, fantastic projections of old. Remember "we aim to deliver 80 to 90 thousand cars in 2016" last year? I think the stock jumped a bit, but a lot of investors just didn't believe it. They ended up doing 79,000 and failed at every quarter to enthuse investors - since as we now know, they were going to fail with that overall 2016 projection.
The 79,000 number was still pretty incredible growth over the 52,000 number from 2015 (if I recall correctly), but the elation over that was dulled by the initial projection that was higher.
Perhaps Elon is maturing now and knows to be "less showman, more cagey" with regard to projections. Perhaps this is because a capital raise is an option and he doesn't want TSLA to be hurt by continual failures to stay on track with a "bazillion deliveries" projection.
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