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If you think Tesla depends on subsidies, you haven't done one single whit of research about Tesla at all.
Here are some examples of companies which get WAY more federal subsidies than Tesla:
ExxonMobil
Chevron
ConocoPhillips
Lockheed Martin
Boeing
BAE
Raytheon
General Dynamics
Northrup Grumman
L-3 Communications
State and local subsidies? Here are some which get more than Tesla:
Boeing
Intel
Alcoa
GM
Ford
Sempra
Fiat Chrysler
Royal Dutch Shell
Nike
Nissan
Cerner
Cheniere
Dow
The United States of subsidies: The biggest corporate winners in each state
If you, mmd, think that all of these companies are worthless subsidy hogs which nobody in their right mind should invest in... OK, then I will respect your opinion on Tesla too
It is, but Tesla has very nice leads on volume production and production cost reduction. The main competitors for volume production of batteries appear to be BYD, CATL (making an enormous new bet), followed distantly by LG Chem and Samsung, and then some other Chinese companies. BYD isn't targeting stationary storage; CATL might sell into that market; LG Chem and Samsung don't have the volume; and Tesla seems to have production costs below all of them, *and* has hired the best researchers.
Dennisj00
Member
Mitchj has a long and informative post in the 'battery pack costs ' thread he started -can't link from the iPad - but I think the TE segment is severely underestimated. Lead times are long but once this area gets rolling it's going to make the auto section look like the proverbial 'mouse nuts'.
This is from a 40+ year electric utility background that experienced cutting water heaters and A/C off as 'energy management ' in the late 70s. We would have killed for battery storage.
This is from a 40+ year electric utility background that experienced cutting water heaters and A/C off as 'energy management ' in the late 70s. We would have killed for battery storage.
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How is PV power rating, BES power rating, and duration of the battery power delivery relevant to the cost per kWh comparison?
The power rating of the Tesla BES as it relates to PV power rating is actually higher than AES's: 13/17 = 0.76 vs. 20/28 = 0.71.
The difference in pricing does not equates to real technical advantage of the system, as it is based on a slew of assumptions, which one can get more or less aggressive with. The proof is in how profitable these two system will be in real life, an unknown at this time.
The only conclusion that can be drawn from this data is that AES pricing per kWh is lower than Tesla's
Rationalize it however you choose. Are you saying TSLA is willing to run their BES closer to the ragged edge than AES?
With a difference of 21% cheaper for the AES kwh vs. Tesla's $0.139/kwh, which system do you think Kauai Co-op might dispatch first when the load is less than the total of both systems?
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I am not rationalizing anything, just saying that the data you highlighted, ostensibly to demonstrate superiority of AES system, do not show this at all. It is a classic case of not enough information for a conclusion. So it is you, actually, trying to rationalize something which can't be.
These are the only two solar peaker plants out there, so competition will be not between themselves, but with the diesel generating plants, which both of these will win hands down.
As for pricing difference, as I mentioned, it is subject to the bunch of assumptions and comparison you presented does not demonstrate superiority of one project or another. It could be due to factors completely unrelated to technical superiority of the system, but just linked to more expensive land, or how the contracts are structured, i.e. one can include purchase of additional stacked services, while other does not.
I get it that you are skeptical about TE, and am totally fine with that. My point is that the data you outlined can't be used to rationalize you beliefs/attitude toward TE.
a data point for you for the Kaua'i Tesla PV/battery array
ie KIUC only cost is $0.139/kWh, nothing else
(answer when asking costs below from KIUC)(how much they cost)
"Aloha,
Thank you for your email. Unfortunately we do not have that information as we didn’t buy the batteries, nor do we own them. Tesla does. We only buy the power from them.
Mahalo!
***********
Kauai Island Utility Cooperative
Lihue, HI. 96766-2000
------------------------
Sent: Wednesday, March 22, 2017 7:47 AM
To: KIUC_
Subject: Tesla Powerpacks in your PV array farm
Are you folks free to share the costs of your Tesla PowerPacks?
"
i watched GPRO very closely from IPO to failure... it is the perfect example of an absolute stock scam... engineered from the beginning... without getting too deep into the details... it was a smack in the face depiction of a company creating a stock out of a story then completely cashing in on it... in my opinion it was 100% premeditated... and now the CEO and his family walked away with BILLIONS of dollars (including father who walked away with 100s of millions of investors dollars who just happened to be one of the key people who engineered the dot-com bubble)... in 1 year after IPO, GPRO's market cap was worth less than the amount of money that was made through stock sales by 3 individuals.
Tesla is another example of Silicon Valley dream euphoria... all you have to do is imagine them as a trillion+ dollar company... and you can justify not selling until $1000/share... when the distance from current reality and this imaginary endpoint is lightyears away.
One could say Tesla isn't the same as GPRO... with its successes... but does Elon have 100s of millions of dollars from Tesla... yes... does Tesla have a market cap that is greater than 90% justified by things that ***might*** happen in the future... yes... does Tesla disseminate information in a strategic way to keep the story alive and inflated... yes... is Tesla a Silicon Valley story... yes... is Tesla's CEO compared to Steve Jobs... yes... do investors constantly counter bear arguments with "then I bet you wouldn't invest in Apple in 1999 either!"... yes... do investors declare market cap valuations as pointless because of AMZN... yes.
but the largest similarity between GPRO and TSLA is... investors believe Tesla will be a company in the future that it currently is not... and are paying for it today.
GPRO's story was that it would become the largest social media company rivaling FB and the like... the analysts were "pounding the table" declaring growth... at least it failed fast.
TSLA is GPRO in slow motion... and right now the CEO of GPRO is cruising around in his $40m yacht with his $1b bank account while his company's market cap is: $1.17b down from a 15 BILLION dollar valuation.
Dennisj00
Member
You wasted too many keystrokes. I can buy a GP knockoff for $29.
Good luck with the rest of your story.
always a justification... mark it 8 dude... so easy. "Tesla has no competitors"... one of the saddest justifications around.
The one absolute we know is AES's system will cost Kauai Coop $0.11/kwh and Tesla's will cost them $0.139/kwh; anyone can infer whatever they choose about that differential.
Dennisj00
Member
Apparently I don't know the lingo 'mark it 8 dude'. And I never said T has no competitors, I just don't see any for 3 or more years with a battery supply and charging network.
I'd easily challenge my 60s against a Bolt coast to coast. You have one?
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Facebook doesn't require you to buy an additional piece of overpriced hardware to use their services.
I never bought into the GoPro hype. The barrier to entry was far too low and it was for a product of dubious mass market appeal. The comparison to Tesla is weak, and I am being generous here.
The difference is that Elon Musk isn't driven by money to buy a yacht or Bond-villain volcano island. If Musk simply wanted to go laughing to the bank he would have done so after the sale of PayPal to feeBay. Not pour every last cent into twin rocket and car ventures which everyone told him was financial doom.
Show me a compelling electric vehicle from any of Tesla's competitors and show me how the competitors are investing in EV tech which will allow them to produce 1-5 million vehicles per year. You know when Tesla has competition? When GM announces its own gigafactory, then add 10 years of development time to that. That's when Tesla will have competition in Tesla's car space. Uber, TE, Vision, are all separate and will eventually be given value to Tesla
I get it, you sold Tesla at $220 and now you're pissed you missed the ride up to $300. Like me with Nvidia.. bought at 30, sold at 35... waited for it to come down and it never did... But seriously, stop being ridiculous
Yea whatever.
Forget about the 1 trillion dollar valuation.
You know what, I'm gonna go deep into fundamentals there, okay ? : I say Tesla will make 375 billion dollars REVENUES, and 37,5 billion dollars net profits in 10 years.
With those numbers, how much do you think the company will be worth ? Knowing that a fair valuation is usually 20x net income
OK. I infer that while TSLA may or may not have an advantage in large "yank tank" EV sedans and SUVs, it is a late-comer to the stationary storage market where entrenched competitors like AES not only have long-curried relationships with potential utility customers but also significant experience in owning and operating their own generation facilities and co-located stationary storage auxiliaries. YMMV
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