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Waiting4M3
Active Member
I think he understands just fine, he's just doing this to make himself look good to his supporters. Lots of noise, very little substance, that's the MO his whole life.
Thumper
Active Member
The tunnel sled may need a bit of "refinement" to allow standing passengers with and without bicycles to accelerate to 120MPH without landing in a pile on the floor.
Slow acceleration? I have been on trains where this works ok with people standing / walking about.
on que - from Gene 'APPL' Munster
Tesla could be the next Amazon, says Gene Munster
"
Despite Amazon shares nearing the $1,000 milestone, a record high for the company, the investor says he likes Tesla better. "Tesla is a controversial story," said Munster on "Squawk on the Street." "People don't understand what this company's mission statement is," he said. Much like Amazon in its early days when the company was 'just' selling books, he said.
"
mmd
Active Member
Is Tesla now guaranteeing deliveries of custom built Model S within 30 days? That doesn't seem to be much waiting. Is this only a temporary demand lever?
Reciprocity
Active Member
Inertial dampeners, duh. Dont you watch Star Trek?
Reciprocity
Active Member
I used to be in the on demand manufacturing business and I can tell you from experience, There is almost nothing to gain by waiting to start producing on an order. So if it takes you 5 days to make a car, then its best to start immediately. We had a 24 hour turn on orders but had a rush service where we manufactured the same day and delivered the product to the UPS at the airport in Louisville, KY at 2am for delivery that same day (24 hour after the order was placed.) Once you can produce things fast, there is nothing to be gained by waiting to start because the orders never slow down. Waiting only builds a back log. So they might be waiting until they have x number of orders for a specific color or configuration then they all go together, but they wont be waiting long. Also, Tesla has changed three shifts, which is probably giving them a bit more production bandwidth to satisfy demand, though I assume they where running close to 24x7 already, it was clear in Q1 they had a shut down but still produced nearly a record number of cars. This was in part due to the change to 3 shifts.
In short, faster deliveries could actually mean more demand and not less, you can gain efficiency by grouping similar colors and configs. I also believe Tesla is building more inventory cars with the most popular configs and colors so they dont have to build fully custom cars for every order. Maybe only the wheels change.
erthquake
Active Member
Any chance that the Model 3 modules are designed to long, skinny, and run the across the car's width? Easy to add modules that way without a "snout" module and still maintain the car's balance.
Thanks for relaying the good news about more efficient production and marketing.
Many if not most people shop for new cars only when something has gone wrong with their current one. They don't like to wait or perhaps cannot wait for a replacement. Shorter wait times should mean more people will consider Teslas rather than what is currently available on a competing dealership's lot.
Meanwhile, Tesla is making inventory (loaner, test rider, showroomer or completely new) cars available for those who do not want to wait at all. I have little doubt that these "levers" have been wisely implemented as permanent boosts to demand.
Here is my personal experience: I was shopping for a new, custom model X. My Model S was custom ordered and I waited the ~6-8 weeks back in 2013 for it. This time with the X I just didn't have a super strong opinion on paint or interior color. So I ended up shopping "off of the lot". I got one they physically had, and I will have it in days instead of weeks. I *could* have custom ordered to get a different color wheel that I would be marginally happier with but in the end the instant-ness won me over instead. Having cars to look at made it feel much more like a conventional experience. I didn't get all that I wanted, but got "free" options (hi fi sound system) that I didn't mind having. Plus the inconsequential inventory discount makes me feel like I got a deal, and helped me pull the trigger.
TL;DR: Inventory is good for sales.
For Red/Green weak color vision folks, mostly male, not a lot of differance when we see those colors.....
my cue's are "brighter/dimmer"
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That's what I was wondering as well when I said:
scaesare said:
It's different than the renders, however. But then again, so is the idea of only 4-5 modules.
That also implies the pack would have no "spine" running down it's center. Certainly possible, but in existing packs that provides both structural rigidity, and is used as a protected center conduit for the cabling.
Seems unlikely, IMO.
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
It's going to be longer. There are four reasons for their advantage:
1. Custom large scale cell manufacturing equipment.
2. Collocation.
3. Vertical integration.
4. Alien dreadnaught production technology. About half of the cost of the original Gigafactory was the building and related, plus the time required to build it.
RBC Capital Markets' sense is management is still confident about targets (5k/week at some point in 2017, 10k/week at some point in 2018). Production capability getting ramped up. Stamping press came in on time, two big goalposts from here are body welding and final assembly line. A delicate dance needs to occur between Gigafactory ramp (batteries and drive units) and Freemont ramp as to not tie up capital. Plan has room for audibles as some challenges will pop up but cushion is built in. Meanwhile, management sees a pretty clear line to 1mm units of capacity at Freemont. This would be 2x what that facility ever produced (under NUMMI) but if true means that while additional factory announcements likely, not necessary to hit 1mm unit 2020 target.
Sounds like 2H capex could be equal to 1H or $4bn for year. Sounds like Model S/X to remain with 18650 cells for now, 2170 only for Model 3 and Energy. On autonomous, fleet doing 2mm miles/ day. Not opposed to LiDAR but not in today's suite because expensive and obtrusive. Think Level 4 can be done w/cameras, radar. Never say never but unlikely to sell Autopilot to other OEMs. Solar roof is sold out well into 2018. Will start making in prototype mode at Freemont before transferring to Buffalo NY (but well into 2018 before online). Buffalo will have 1GW capacity (~20k houses).
Sounds like?! I believe that they are sandbagging on the switch because they are concerned about Osborning the MS-MX.
They have a cash cow with AP! They repaced mobile eye in about a year. Going forward most of the software spending is complete and their hardware costs are going down. They are planning to reduce their prices for AP, at the latest when the M3 is launched. It will still be a huge money maker. Their marginal cost is under $1.5k.
You seem to be forgetting that if they only convert their existing equipment to produce 2170's they won't achieve any of the cost savings.
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Gene Munster on CNBC this morning indicated that Tesla could be next Amazon:
Tesla could be the next Amazon, says Gene Munster
Tesla could be the next Amazon, says Gene Munster
mmd
Active Member
What? Now some of you are trying to spin the < 30 days wait time into a positive? Are you agreeing thatTesla is not production constraint on Model S/X? Are you saying, the custom building scheme for all S/X was wrong , and the model used by other car makers is the way to go?
Funny how people have changed with the direction of wind.
Funny how people have changed with the direction of wind.
Reciprocity
Active Member
If you could replace one component and add up to $10,000 in GM to each car would you wait to do it? I get that they have a commitment to Panasonic for 2B cells, but I am sure they can work around that commitment and could probably even offer to buy 21-70 from Panasonic made in Japan/China or wherever they make them. Could also see some demand for 18650 as replacements for existing cars so they could still consume the rest of the 2 billion cells they haven't already. The original contract appears to target end of 2017 anyway and around 280,000 total cars though that comes down with more 100KWh packs.
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