2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[jhm]

I'm hoping that the Roadster 2 has a special safety feature: the heart attack button. Here's how it works. At the onset of a heart attack, press button. The Roadster then accelerates from 0-62 mph for one final chest compression. Also relieves gas.


Edit, switched from "constipation" to "gas" because "gas" is much funnier.

 

[jhm]

Members of the Porfifera phylum have no nervous system.

But members of the Covfefe phylum do not.

(Sorry, could not resist.)

 

[Reciprocity]

I'm hoping that the Roadster 2 has a special safety feature: the heart attack button. Here's how it works. At the onset of a heart attack, press button. The Roadster then accelerates from 0-62 mph for one final chest compression. Also relieves constipation.

Uhm.. Roadster 2 has a heart rate monitor. No need for extra silly buttons.

 

[jhm]

Uhm.. Roadster 2 has a heart rate monitor. No need for extra silly buttons.

You should still check with your doctor to see if you are healthy enough for Roadster 2.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Is it just me or are we looking at a 2021 global battery manufacturing capacity picture of:

1+ TWh for Tesla vs. less than 100 GWh for everyone else combined.

----------

I'm really excited for what 2020+ has to bring to Tesla.

The company is going from building 1 Gigafactory in 5 years to planning 5 Gigafactories simultaneously.

What does that mean for the next round?

 

[dc_h]

HOW?!?!?! It's almost like they invented a new chemistry with higher energy density.

Tesla Model S P100D owner sets record 560 mi (990 km) on a single charge

Kind of cool to see how far this can go, but all I can think of is the 100's of angry ICE drivers trying to get around the hyper-miler. Hope he wasn't in a left lane anywhere.

 

[Reciprocity]

You should still check with your doctor to see if you are healthy enough for Roadster 2.

Ill go to the same one that got me my Prescription for glaucoma!

 

[dc_h]

Is it just me or are we looking at a 2021 global battery manufacturing capacity picture of:

1+ TWh for Tesla vs. less than 100 GWh for everyone else combined.

China intends to be 12% EV by 2020. CATL and BYD will be producing batteries. It would be great if Tesla can be 50% of global production, but I think growth with everyone else will make 30% more likely.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

China intends to be 12% EV by 2020. CATL and BYD will be producing batteries. It would be great if Tesla can be 50% of global production, but I think growth with everyone else will make 30% more likely.

Do you know CATL's and BYD's growth plans for the next five years?

My understanding is Tesla's planned growth is VASTLY discounted and underestimated, and no one else is even at the same ballpark.

Financial Times article: Subscribe to read (not mine; although I do keep a very close eye on this independently)

 

[techmaven]

Do you know CATL's and BYD's growth plans for the next five years?
My understanding is Tesla's planned growth is VASTLY discounted and underestimated, and no one else is even at the same ballpark.

Ignoring Japanese production capacity borders on incompetence IMHO. Maybe they thought it would be economically unviable? Panasonic's capacity in Japan exceeds 9 GWh, or bigger than every facility shown in that chart. It also ignores SK Innovation completely.

 

[winfield100]

That is not how you are supposed to respond to FUD. I must have done something wrong.

is it H2, or H2S. i have a very old dawg that is excellent for the H2S

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Ignoring Japanese production capacity borders on incompetence IMHO. Maybe they thought it would be economically unviable? Panasonic's capacity in Japan exceeds 9 GWh, or bigger than every facility shown in that chart. It also ignores SK Innovation completely.

Agreed. Financial Times article also shows 35 GWh for Tesla in 2020, which is completely wrong on many levels.

Here's the last I've seen of SK Innovations:

SK Innovation is doubling its battery production for electric vehicles to 4GWh/year to support demand from Mercedes and others

 

[ValueAnalyst]

HOW?!?!?! It's almost like they invented a new chemistry with higher energy density.

Tesla Model S P100D owner sets record 560 mi (990 km) on a single charge

For the record, this is what sarcasm looks like. I'm not actually saying they invented new chemistry, obviously (or so I thought)...

 

[racer26]

Agreed. Financial Times article also shows 35 GWh for Tesla in 2020, which is completely wrong on many levels.

Here's the last I've seen of SK Innovations:

SK Innovation is doubling its battery production for electric vehicles to 4GWh/year to support demand from Mercedes and others

Tesla should be in that chart at 105GWh not 35GWh.

Also, CATL's 50GWh has no funding as of present, AFAIK. So its vaporware.

So yeah, Tesla is alone, IMO, before you even consider that Tesla is planning to announce GF3,4,5 later this year, likely to come online by 2021 and expected to be similar in magnitude to GF1.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla should be in that chart at 105GWh not 35GWh.

Also, CATL's 50GWh has no funding as of present, AFAIK. So its vaporware.

So yeah, Tesla is alone, IMO, before you even consider that Tesla is planning to announce GF3,4,5 later this year, likely to come online by 2021 and expected to be similar in magnitude to GF1.

Exactly, except that I expect (that's three different words starting with ex) that Gigafactory in China will be bigger than Gigafactory 1.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

"Next stop 270"

This will never get old.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla's China Plan Bolsters Prospects in Biggest Market for EVs

I expect the next Gigafactory in China to be bigger, more vertically integrated, and come online faster than Gigafactory 1.

This can easily boost Tesla's annual production rate to 4 million cars (run-rate) by end 2020/21.

Hopefully more, so I can say "Elon & Team proved me too conservative, once again."

 

[EinSV]

View attachment 232032

<snip>

This can easily boost Tesla's annual production rate to 4 million cars (run-rate) by end 2020/21.

Hopefully more, so I can say "Elon&Team proved me too conservative once again."

Hey -- you're not getting soft on us are you?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Hey -- you're not getting soft on us are you?

Well, note that I did not mention Gigafactories 4, 5, and 6 this time.

Good attention to details though. Impressive. Keeping me on my toes.

I literally LOL'ed in public.

 

[Starno]

10 days away from July ...