dhrivnak
Active Member
Yes I have with my Volt. And the dealer experience was very good. And I hate to say to the Volt as has been far more reliable than my Tesla. Just not quite as fun to drive however.
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
Reciprocity
Active Member
Pretty vague claims given they do not define whether that price is at the pack or cell level. Additionally, I have never seen where Audi intends on getting their batteries. We know LG is most likely at $145/KWh. I am assuming Tesla will very soon be at $190/KWh * 35% savings = ~$125/KWh at the pack level based on the savings from the Gigafactory ramp.
Interestingly, Audi claims 35% by 2025, which would be about 650,000 per year by 2025. As we know, Tesla intends to be at a 500,000 run rate by the end of 2018. Tesla could be doing 2 million cars a year by then with pack pricing at sub $100/KWh. I think Audi/VW is one of the more aggressive groups pushing for EV when compared to the rest, so even they do not see the changes coming or they would be breaking ground and partnering on huge battery factories.
No, we do not know that.
145$/kWh war part of a billion dollar deal, that contains FIXED battery price for 4 years up to '19 and assumes GM buys much more than just cells.
Saying LG is at 145 because of such a deal is plain lie.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Harsh much? It's the information that we have, not a lie. Less cafine bro.
You're always going to read about endless people complaining about the product on the forums because those are the people that post on the forums. You're not going to hear from people completely satisfied with the product. At least not as much. It's just human nature. Having said that, no company is perfect. Tesla has plenty of room to grow in the service department and communication to customers. Even with all the improvements they make, they still have the highest customer satisfaction numbers.
Personally, I go test drive and experience the products myself every few months as an investor (but not owner yet) to make sure Tesla is making progress. During my last test drive, I concluded AP2 is on par with AP1 I drove back in November 2016. The only thing missing was the self parking feature.
1. If you think or hope they're fabricated, and/or very small percentage, why give them so much exuberant press?
2. "TON with terrible X issues": ok, I'll bite: exactly how many? What are the actual numbers, or at least a reasonably explicit count, which would give a percentage based on number of X's sold, which would give us a bit more context as to exactly how big that TON was. Which of those are truly "terrible", and which are annoying, or merely cosmetic?
With respect, I know you have real problems with the X because of the FWD and I don't want to resurrect that particular set of rants -- I get it. However let's not replace that with language about service implying most X's have horrible service problems. That's what your post seems to be trying to imply, and I won't buy ANY of it until I see some reasonably accurate numbers, to give appropriate context.
Just my opinion.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
For the record, I don't think I ever gave a timeline on what the stock will do. I may have made an offhand comment that maybe implies what you indicated, but the following is my philosophy:
I estimate the intrinsic value of the company at a very high $1T+ but no one really knows when the price of the company will get there, if ever. This is why I stay away from options and want to preserve my staying power.
If a short squeeze happens in the next few months, however, I would expect the SP to rise above $1,000, and what it does afterwords will dépend on how the Model 3 ramp-up and margins are progressing.
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The information we have does not say what you stated above.
Not enough caffeine?
Krugerrand
Meow
If. OMG, I'm so over the 'short squeeze' talk at this point. Y'all need to go out and buy some oranges or lemons and squeeze those, unless you can tell me at what price the stock will force the squeeze.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Agree with everything you said, but the bolded sentence?!
Tesla will likely have 8-12 Gigafactories by then (possibly more), and assuming each will produce 1m+ cars, that's multiple times of 2 million cars.
I think the issue is that it could be either a different interpretation, or mis-interpretation of the same data without intent to deceive.
That's a bit different than claiming somebody ls lying, which has some implication of intent to mislead.
I've long suspected that Tesla's costs may be significantly lower than what folks believe... especially with Jeff Dahn's reaction when asked about it.
They'll undoubtedly be even lower still with the GF1.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I've estimated $450-500 before, and listed ten items that may ignite it. A profitable Model 3 ramp up to 5,000/week this year is one of them.
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If we don't know what the price is, then we don't know if it's a lie either. Anyway, there is nothing wrong with negotiating a long term supply contract for a substantial volume purchase in exchange for a lower price. Tesla did the same thing with Panasonic.
For a different data point : Renault is selling 41kWh batteries to end users for 7000 EUR. That's 170EUR/kWh and includes dealer and manufacturer markup. It seems reasonable most large automotive companies with substantial electric car products are sourcing battery packs at somewhere that quoted price of $145/kWh. Since Audi is only starting up production next year and prices are dropping rapidly it's certainly plausible that the $115/kWh is their pack cost.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I have a Dec, 2016 model x and I haven't had any issues that wouldn't be considered anything but extremely minor and I have found that when I do have an issue, service is quick or I get a very nice loaner.
I know I'm only one guy with one car but it tells me that it is possible to build the car without major issues. Never had any issues with the fwd desires a minor squeak when they opened. They took care of this whole distracting me with hot sales ladies offering me coffee. It's only been 6 months and 12k miles but so far so good.
I typically see a few model S everyday on my short commute, but I am starting to see almost as many model Xs. I can't tell to how many looks I get, mostly women in the wholefoods parking lot. I know it's not very scientific, but I think we are going to start to seeing model x finally mature enough in production to see it finally eclipse model S in production and deliveries. I expect at least 20-30% more x then s on the 2H2017. Hopefully s still continues to grow as well, only they will 1H2018 but I'm more worried about the next 6 months then the following 6.
Nonsense this happens to every world class company. What you are pointing out happens already to the best so are you saying your portfolio does not have any mature company?
Krugerrand
Meow
Time frame. Time frame. Time frame. Devil is in the details. That range has to be hit in a relatively short (as in short from today's date) and compact (as in happening over a few days) period of time. It's taken 3 months (Mar 27 - $270ish) to gain $100ish with several 'dips' in there giving shorts time to get out and re-enter, and get out and re-enter etc... If it takes another 3 months to get into that range (just another $100 to do so, which seems not out of the impossible given what's coming up in the next 3 months (ie., several of those igniting items) there won't be a bonfire, but rather just a nice fire to roast wieners and make s'mores - no squeeze.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I actually prefer a slow fire because I don't want to have to sell my shares, and I can keep my margin level stable if the price is perpetually and significantly below intrinsic value, which will continuously increase as we move through time and the company executes on its plan.
Yes maybe with couple of industry awards and Wall Street upgrades. The ramp doesn't even have to be silky smooth as long as there is one IMO.
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