2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[JRP3]

I don't think NMC has advanced sufficiently. Assuming 20% improvement in chemistry on NMC (which the Powerpack/Powerwall 2 suggests) vs 0% improvement for NCA, a 21-70 with NMC should have around 13 Wh/cell while a NCA cell should have 18 Wh/cell. In this scenario a Model 3 using 4000 cells would have 72 kWh with NCA but only 52 kWh with NMC. That's what NMC allows, optimistially.

(Of course, NMC isn't the same as NMC. Tesla could go for two different NMC-chemistries. One optimized for durability for TE and one optimized for energy density for TA. But then again, why then drop NCA?)

Also a consideration is NMC uses a significantly higher amount of Cobalt than NCA, which is one of the few elements with some actual supply concerns.

 

[MitchJi]

2. NMC energy density may have advanced enough that Tesla could use it in the Model 3, whose largest battery pack may be 80kWh(?)
3. This puts Elon's statement of "a battery pack larger than 100kWh is probably not necessary" into more context
4. NMC is far more amenable to high-C charge rates that Elon <snip>

Thoughts?
I believe that the fact that the 100 kWh packs are so lucrative that Elon made the production a very high priority means that you can forget about 2 and 3.

I don't believe Elon would suggest massively faster charging if the current models wouldn't support a substantial increase.

 

[larmor]

Elon Musk back at Trump Tower

Seeking Alpha: Trump-Musk

spaceX existing contracts?

 

[dirtyofries]

I did, but didn't really think it significant in any way - after taxes it's probably enough money to buy a fully loaded Model X.

Do you think it significant?

Ha, not in terms of actual movement, just more as good thing to toss out in the general discussion thread.

As you said, has no true significance. It would be nice if it was actually used to buy an X...

 

[JGInnovation]

What's the relevance of Costco and operation of gas station to this thread?

From a discussion on page 54-55. The point being made is that Tesla's Supercharger business model is analogous to Costco's business model and it will be tough for others to compete by just building a charging network or adding chargers to gas stations.

 

[GBleck]

I'm far from a TA expert, but to me this action invalidated that pattern going forward:

View attachment 209353

Initially it looked like a fail to the downside and had it gone back to the previous uptrend line and been rejected it would've been bearish but since it moved back thru the uptrend I would look at it as a "failed" break down (a look below and fail) and thus was a bullish signal.

Your thoughts?

Mike

Wasn't the break down to max pain for a year, quarter, month, week end max pain price?

 

[vgrinshpun]

This article in EE Times Europe includes a picture of the inside of the pod. It is not clear if this is just file photo of PowePack pod version 1, or actually a picture from the January 4 event (unlikely?). The author also makes a claim that new cells have 5175mAh capacity. Hopefully we can use @AudubonB account to verify whether this info is coming from Tesla or pulled out of thin air...

If legit, we can make pretty accurate guesses about metrics of the new cells and production capacity...

 

[Yggdrasill]

This article in EE Times Europe includes a picture of the inside of the pod. It is not clear if this is just file photo of PowePack pod version 1, or actually a picture from the January 4 event (unlikely?). The author also makes a claim that new cells have 5175mAh capacity. Hopefully we can use @AudubonB account to verify whether this info is coming from Tesla or pulled out of thin air...

If legit, we can make pretty accurate guesses about metrics of the new cells and production capacity...

It's a pod version 1 from the Gigafactory opening. See for instance: Tour Tesla's Gigafactory Grand Opening Live, Elon Musk's Speech - Videos

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Wasn't the break down to max pain for a year, quarter, month, week end max pain price?

I'm not sure - but my understanding of TA (Technical Analysis) is you look at the chart pattern only and don't make "exceptions" to the pattern based FA (fundamentals).

Not saying I'm in 100% agreement with that (living in a vacuum with regards to news, etc.) but that's the way I understand TA is supposed to work.

I find TA fascinating - I'm just not very good at it...

Mike

 

[Yggdrasill]

The author also makes a claim that new cells have 5175mAh capacity.

5175 mAh sounds plausible, though. (Maybe a bit low.) Would really like to know if that's a figure from Tesla.

 

[Spidy]

I totally disagree.

I think Electrek has become the single best and most reliable source for information about Tesla and EVs generally. I do see from various sources that there is a concerted effort among FUDsters and short sellers to undermine Electrek's reputation. I guess they prefer information coming from folks like Niedermeyer, Bertel Schmitt and Charley Grant of the WSJ, who feed up everything with the negative spin they want.

I just notice that while nvidia announces a big partnership with Audi as well as Bosch&ZF, Electrek rather talks about some small side comment Elon made about Trump, while on the other hand they cover every tiny detail about Autopilot. What do you make of that?

 

[GBleck]

I'm not sure - but my understanding of TA (Technical Analysis) is you look at the chart pattern only and don't make "exceptions" to the pattern based FA (fundamentals).

Not saying I'm in 100% agreement with that (living in a vacuum with regards to news, etc.) but that's the way I understand TA is supposed to work.

I find TA fascinating - I'm just not very good at it...

Mike

I am also totally clueless to most of the dark art of technical trading. Only other thing during the dip was the run up to the delivery numbers. Maybe pure technical traders might avoid times right before news?

 

[vgrinshpun]

5175 mAh sounds plausible, though. Would really like to know if that's a figure from Tesla.

Me too. I've made a comment to the article - hopefully Author can respond...

As for the picture, I am confused. The InsideEV article that you've linked (thanks!) says that this is picture of the pod with 2170 cells, which would be indicative of PowerPack V2, not V1. At the same time they claim that the pod is 6.4kWh, which would be consistent with PowerPack V1...

 

[callmesam]

I just notice that while nvidia announces a big partnership with Audi as well as Bosch&ZF, Electrek rather talks about some small side comment Elon made about Trump, while on the other hand they cover every tiny detail about Autopilot. What do you make of that?

Not electric, not news. Audi partnering on 20 more hybrids isn't EV news. Nor building a self driving car in 2020.

Wake me up when Audi has a single long range electric vehicle on the road.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Me too. I've made a comment to the article - hopefully Authot can respond...

As for the picture, I am confused. The InsideEV article that you've linked (thanks!) says that this is picture of the pod with 2170 cells, which would be indicative of PowerPack V2, not V1. At the same time they claim that the pod is 6.4kWh, which would be consistent with PowerPack V1...

The pod shown at the Gigafactory opening used 18650-cells. InsideEVs is just a bit confused.

 

[JBRR]

I just notice that while nvidia announces a big partnership with Audi as well as Bosch&ZF, Electrek rather talks about some small side comment Elon made about Trump, while on the other hand they cover every tiny detail about Autopilot. What do you make of that?

There's a hint in the name of the site... "electrek" .. I'll leave you to figure it out.

 

[dirtyofries]

Me too. I've made a comment to the article - hopefully Authot can respond...

As for the picture, I am confused. The InsideEV article that you've linked (thanks!) says that this is picture of the pod with 2170 cells, which would be indicative of PowerPack V2, not V1. At the same time they claim that the pod is 6.4kWh, which would be consistent with PowerPack V1...

It's possible they just pulled an old stock photo either as a replacement/placeholder or because they figured no one would know better.

I'd love to know where they got their capacity info.

 

[vgrinshpun]

The pod shown at the Gigafactory opening used 18650-cells. InsideEVs is just a bit confused.

Well, then the ratio of energy density of TE vs. TA can be easily calculated using quantity of cells in this pod (we now have two pictures!). Sounds like a very nice homework project (note to self)

 

[erthquake]

I just notice that while nvidia announces a big partnership with Audi as well as Bosch&ZF, Electrek rather talks about some small side comment Elon made about Trump, while on the other hand they cover every tiny detail about Autopilot. What do you make of that?

Was it announced for an Audi EV platform? No? Then why should it be on Electrek?

 

[Yggdrasill]

Well, than the ratio of energy density of TE vs. TA can be easily calculated using quantity of cells in this pod (we now have two pictures!). Sounds like a very nice homework project (note to self)

I've done that ages ago. 888 cells per pod, 6.4 kWh = 7.2 Wh/cell

Assuming a 50% bump in active material in the 21-70s and a 20% improvement in chemistry: 7.2 Wh/cell x 1.5 x 1.2 = 13 Wh/cell.

That's for NMC.

NCA goes like:

11.45 Wh/cell for 85 kWh pack as measured by wk057, 5% improvement with the 90 kWh pack, 50% more active material and assuming a further 10% improvement in chemistry (some carry-over from the improvements on NMC):

11.45 Wh/cell x 1.05 x 1.5 x 1.10 = 20 Wh/cell