2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[dirtyofries]

Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Trump: ‘I think we may see some surprising things from the next administration on renewables’

It's sort of amazing to me that Elon/Tesla see such a different thing than other companies.

Sungevity is canceling their IPO on what they claim is Trump uncertainty.

US rooftop player Sungevity's IPO plans cancelled

Hoping today's meeting adds further concrete to the foundations.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I've done that ages ago. 888 cells per pod, 6.4 kWh = 7.2 Wh/cell

Assuming a 50% bump in active material in the 21-70s and a 20% improvement in chemistry: 7.2 Wh/cell x 1.5 x 1.2 = 13 Wh/cell.

That's for NMC.

This would mean that the PowerPack V2 has 11.11% more 2170 cells than PowerPack V1 18650 cells, which seem to be counterintuitive since 2170 cells have larger diameter. Something is amiss here...

 

[EinSV]

I just notice that while nvidia announces a big partnership with Audi as well as Bosch&ZF, Electrek rather talks about some small side comment Elon made about Trump, while on the other hand they cover every tiny detail about Autopilot. What do you make of that?

Audi has been one of NVIDIA's partners for a decade and announced at CES 2015 that it was using NVIDIA chips in its self-driving technology. Pace Setter: Audi to Use Tegra X1, Accelerating Drive to Self-Piloted Cars | The Official NVIDIA Blog

So to me the announcement you cite is not exactly earth shattering. (Not to mention that the tweet you cite is from a couple days ago). I couldn't even find much if anything about it on NVIDIA's own Audi partner webpage. Audi and NVIDIA DRIVE Partnership

On the other hand, the article on Musk's comment about Trump ended up being followed quickly by a meeting with top Trump aides, which seems very newsworthy. I am not going to second guess every choice of which story to run on short deadlines, but on this one I say props to Fred Lambert and Electrek for good reporter's instincts to get out in front of breaking news.

 

[mmd]

My understanding is that phase one has at least two, maybe four cathode lines, with an equal number of anode lines (and an unknown number of winding and cell assembly lines, probably greater than one). Phase two should have twice that of phase one. So, sometime this year you should have 2-4 lines operational and sometime in 2018 you should have 6-12 lines operational. These are obviously very much improved lines designed for unprecedented volume, and they can't be directly compared to lines at other factories.

I expect phase one to ramp up to around 65 million cells per month sometime in 2017 and phase two to ramp up to 130 million cells per month starting in 2017 and ending in 2018. A total of around 195 million cells per month at the end of 2018. Initial volume is anyones guess.

Can you please cite your sources/pictures? Just assumptions and expectations are not that interesting

 

[hockeythug]

I just notice that while nvidia announces a big partnership with Audi as well as Bosch&ZF, Electrek rather talks about some small side comment Elon made about Trump, while on the other hand they cover every tiny detail about Autopilot. What do you make of that?

The constant republican bashing from that Lambert guy is so unprofessional. I no longer visit that website. Just another biased news source.

 

[Yggdrasill]

This would mean that the PowerPack V2 has 11.11% more 2170 cells than PowerPack V1 18650 cells, which seem to be counterintuitive since 2170 cells have larger diameter. Something is amiss here...

My theory is that Tesla has moved away from using the Model S-type cell module design to using heat pipe cooling or something similar, which allows them to pack the 21-70s really tight. There is room for the cells when you remove the cooling from in between the cells and reduce the cell spacing. We do know the 21-70s have both the terminals on one end of the cell, allowing for cooling from the other side.

 

[3Victoria]

My theory is that Tesla has moved away from using the Model S-type cell module design to using heat pipe cooling or something similar, which allows them to pack the 21-70s really tight. There is room for the cells when you remove the cooling from in between the cells and reduce the cell spacing. We do know the 21-70s have both the terminals on one end of the cell, allowing for cooling from the other side.

Yes, the bottom cooling with heat-pipes sounds like best technology and best packing at 90%.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Can you please cite your sources/pictures? Just assumptions and expectations are not that interesting

I went back and checked and the first phase will at least have two cathode ovens, which was said on the gigafactory tour:

Go to 18:25.

On the same tour it was said that the anode production is basically just mirrored on the other side of the building. So, two cathode lines and two anode lines. (At least.)

 

[vgrinshpun]

My theory is that Tesla has moved away from using the Model S-type cell module design to using heat pipe cooling or something similar, which allows them to pack the 21-70s really tight. There is room for the cells when you remove the cooling from in between the cells and reduce the cell spacing. We do know the 21-70s have both the terminals on one end of the cell, allowing for cooling from the other side.

As you might know, I am intimately familiar with the architecture of the new pack and was the one to share it on this Forum. I, however, am skeptical that pod contains 11.11% more 2170 cells each of which has diameter 16.67% larger than 18650 cell. I personally think that your educated guess that 2170 NCM has capacity of 13Wh is too conservative...

 

[LargeHamCollider]

5175 mAh sounds plausible, though. (Maybe a bit low.) Would really like to know if that's a figure from Tesla.

5175mah would represent a chemistry (with perhaps some of that attributable to packaging) improvement of about 7.5%, pretty significant and better than I expected. A 100kWh S/X pack re-done with such cells would have a capacity of ~115kWh.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

The constant republican bashing from that Lambert guy is so unprofessional. I no longer visit that website. Just another biased news source.

I think the plain bashing of either side isn't needed here especially adding personal insults, feelings and biases. None of that helps with following Tesla or TSLA price.

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesla can still sell cars in Missouri stores, pending appeal

Green Car Reports: Missouri

 

[Yggdrasill]

As you might know, I am intimately familiar with the architecture of the new pack and was the one to share it on this Forum. I, however, am skeptical that pod contains 11.11% more 2170 cells each of which has diameter 16.67% larger than 18650 cell. I personally think that your educated guess that 2170 NCM has capacity of 13Wh is too conservative...

I've assumed a 700 mm x 700 mm battery pack with cells packed real tight. That's based on this picture of the powerwall: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

And some calculations: 2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

There will certainly be some uncertainty here, but I'm getting more and more confident in my calculations.

Edit: (One error does stand out to me though. I've used the 210 kWh as the pack capacity for the Powerpack, which is the AC storage capacity. Using the full 224 kWh capacity, and 16,000 cells per Powerpack, the NMC 21-70s aren't 13 Wh/cell, they are actually 14 Wh/cell. My bad.)

 

[T1989]

Breaking news!
Elon Musk seen entering Trump Tower.

 

[racer26]

So... what's the next catalyst on the chopping block?

4Q16 ER in late Jan/early Feb?

Possibly non-P 100D MS/MX pack release before that?

Anything else we know about that has a firm date?

 

[Drax7]

Breaking news!
Elon Musk seen entering Trump Tower.

already in love with him. job offer to follow.

 

[dirtyofries]

Breaking news!
Elon Musk seen entering Trump Tower.

Might be over by now...

2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

 

[AlMc]

already in love with him. job offer to follow.

You mean EM offering Trump the job as COO??? I really wanted Wheeler for that position

 

[vgrinshpun]

You mean EM offering Trump the job as COO??? I really wanted Wheeler for that position

Now, you are scaring the baby cow sugar out of me.

Are you craving for the never ending supply of sizzle over a sudden?

 

[Bgarret]

So... what's the next catalyst on the chopping block?

4Q16 ER in late Jan/early Feb?

Possibly non-P 100D MS/MX pack release before that?

Anything else we know about that has a firm date?

Not having a firm date, but I'm hoping for some "material" TE announcements prior to earnings. The California project was "nice", but with cells and the production process ramping at the Gigafactory, let's get some bookings globally for TE, looking specifically at Germany, China (largest renewable portfolio and recent announcement of 100s of Billions of renewable spending), Australia.....you get the picture. Would like to have Elon, JB, Wheeler etc give TE related guidance for 2017 on the earnings call and be able to point to more than Hawaii and California as markets.