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Costco's markups are half of Walmart. It's designed to break even. Profit comes from memberships. They are different business strategies, that's the point I'm making. Tesla can employ a break even operating strategy for superchargers like Costco because of an upfront access fee embedded in the cost of the car with no need to sell high margin items at a Supercharger to make up the difference.

I also believe Costco has inventory on consignment. The vendor gets paid for what sells, so totally different business model than Walmart. I've seen people return half eaten apple pies for that reason.
 
I don't shop at Costco. Just never needed to stock up on toilet paper 200 rolls at a time. I've never given Costco a second thought, until right this very moment. So, not common knowledge to me.

And here's the dilemma I now have. Do I believe you about mark up, or the other guy? Neither has provided any backup references or proof other than talking as if you're both authorities on the subject.

Just pointing that out.

From a search for Costco's business model:

Costco's business model is smarter than you think
Why Costco's business model is so great
Costco: Breaking all the retail rules
Fascinating facts about Costco
 
I don't shop at Costco. Just never needed to stock up on toilet paper 200 rolls at a time. I've never given Costco a second thought, until right this very moment. So, not common knowledge to me.

And here's the dilemma I now have. Do I believe you about mark up, or the other guy? Neither has provided any backup references or proof other than talking as if you're both authorities on the subject.

Just pointing that out.

Like one comedian said, "If you want to cook something with cheese, go to the grocery store. If you want to build something out of cheese, go to Costco."
 
I also believe Costco has inventory on consignment. The vendor gets paid for what sells, so totally different business model than Walmart. I've seen people return half eaten apple pies for that reason.

Not different at all: DSD is a thing in pretty much all retail (I used to work for a Supermarket Distributor). For example Pepsi and Coke, almost all Beer etc.. Is DSD (on "consignment" as you say). They pay for shelf space and the market gets a cut for selling the product.

Most Supermarkets run on ~2% profit margins but individual products might have higher or lower margins (Generally Produce is 30%-50% to account for waste).
 
From the Electrek article quoting Adam Jonas:



Could this explain why we haven't seen any Model 3 beta units? We know they hand built 3 alphas, only 2 of which are driveable. We also heard they had ordered enough parts for 300 betas, although there was speculation that some portion of those wouldn't necessarily be used for completed cars. Does anyone know if betas are built from the stamping dies that will be used on the production line or is there some intermediate way to produce the thousands of body panels needed by the betas?

Ugh. I feel any stamping going on is my stamping out misinformation:
He did highlight the riskiest components as some of the long lead items such as stamping dies for the body panels and the seats.

Mr. Jonas may - or may not - be correct, but he is wrong. That is, Mr Musk did NOT highlight...items such as stamping dies, as being "riskiest items".

Rather, Mr Musk very specifically said that those are the two remaining long lead items yet to be finalized; he also qualified that by saying "there are a lot of machine shops in the world" and that the six months remaining were sufficient to take care of that. He then said "If Schuler meets their timeline for bringing the stamping press in, then I feel pretty good about the schedule." Schuler is the manufacturer of the extant presses Tesla inherited from NUMMI as well - those monstrous Terminator-killers all of us have seen on tours or in videos.

Now I have to sign off. Too much occurred while I was goofing off in Nevada!
 
Did everyone catch Kimbal Musk's 2500 share sell?

SEC FORM 4

Note 1 on the Form for this transaction:
"1. The sale transactions reported on this Form 4 were effected pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted by the reporting person on September 14, 2016"

Nothing to see here, this transaction was planned back in September...
 
Ugh. I feel any stamping going on is my stamping out misinformation:

Mr. Jonas may - or may not - be correct, but he is wrong. That is, Mr Musk did NOT highlight...items such as stamping dies, as being "riskiest items".

Rather, Mr Musk very specifically said that those are the two remaining long lead items yet to be finalized; he also qualified that by saying "there are a lot of machine shops in the world" and that the six months remaining were sufficient to take care of that. He then said "If Schuler meets their timeline for bringing the stamping press in, then I feel pretty good about the schedule." Schuler is the manufacturer of the extant presses Tesla inherited from NUMMI as well - those monstrous Terminator-killers all of us have seen on tours or in videos.

Now I have to sign off. Too much occurred while I was goofing off in Nevada!

I think we are all patiently waiting on pins and needles for your trip report. Take care of what's important, but your minions are silently staring at you......:)
 
The exact numbers are hard to pin down exactly, there are a lot of variables. My current working model is 13 Wh/cell for TE and 20 Wh/cell for TA.
This was mentioned first on Seeking Alpha, but has anyone given thought to whether Tesla might switch over all 2170 cells to NMC?

1. Other manufacturers are using NMC in their EVs.
2. NMC energy density may have advanced enough that Tesla could use it in the Model 3, whose largest battery pack may be 80kWh(?)
3. This puts Elon's statement of "a battery pack larger than 100kWh is probably not necessary" into more context
3. NMC is far more amenable to high-C charge rates, the likes of which Elon recently alluded to.
4. NMC would allow more synergy between TA and TE products, the raw materials required, and the machine lines to produce those products.

Thoughts?
 
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Gigafactory Tour Update:

I'll be creating a separate thread dedicated to a Tour Report. I'm behind on a lot of items more pressing to me, however, and I don't want to give the report short shrift. Doing it properly will include carefully going through 1h56m of audiotape...although we couldn't take any pictures, there was no audio restriction. I'm really hoping Tesla quickly releases the video stream of the formal presentation and Q&A; that would make my transcribing 1000% easier.

To allay concerns I've seen in any number of places: we were not subjected to ANY NDAs of any kind. There are not 5-6 dozen investors and analysts out in the wild knowing something you can't learn.

Please post a link to the audio file!
That's easier for you than doing a transcription and better for us!
Maybe via @FredLambert of electrek. That would help Fred and be easier for you.
Right. Won't they have to dedicate different lines for stationary vs auto batteries? Are there structural differences, or just changes in electrolyte chemistry?
Just chemistry changes. It's relatively easy to switch between the types of cells produced.
 
This was mentioned first on Seeking Alpha, but has anyone given thought to whether Tesla might switch over all 2170 cells to NMC?

1. Other manufacturers are using NMC in their EVs.
2. NMC energy density may have advanced enough that Tesla could use it in the Model 3, whose largest battery pack may be 80kWh(?)
3. This puts Elon's statement of "a battery pack larger than 100kWh is probably not necessary" into more context
3. NMC is far more amenable to high-C charge rates, the likes of which Elon recently alluded to.
4. NMC would allow more synergy between TA and TE products, the raw materials required, and the machine lines to produce those products.

Thoughts?
I don't think NMC has advanced sufficiently. Assuming 20% improvement in chemistry on NMC (which the Powerpack/Powerwall 2 suggests) vs 0% improvement for NCA, a 21-70 with NMC should have around 13 Wh/cell while a NCA cell should have 18 Wh/cell. In this scenario a Model 3 using 4000 cells would have 72 kWh with NCA but only 52 kWh with NMC. That's what NMC allows, optimistially.

(Of course, NMC isn't the same as NMC. ;) Tesla could go for two different NMC-chemistries. One optimized for durability for TE and one optimized for energy density for TA. But then again, why then drop NCA?)
 
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Note 1 on the Form for this transaction:
"1. The sale transactions reported on this Form 4 were effected pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted by the reporting person on September 14, 2016"

Nothing to see here, this transaction was planned back in September...
Not only was it planned back in September, but it's simply an exercise of 2500 shares worth of options with a $29.66 strike price, and then selling off those shares.

He still owns the same 166,646 shares of TSLA common that he did before this transaction, and now owns 22,500 of the derivative options that he exercised 2,500 of here. These options expire in June 2019, and he must use them before then. His profit on this transaction was about $450,000. Likely just taking some profit on the options to live off of.
 
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