2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Yggdrasill]

Was just typing up something similar, but almost 50% higher numbers.. (guess I used lower energy / cell and added TE cells

Anyway, just to put this in perspective. Assuming your numbers.. and even assuming 24/7 operation (will not happen)..
- 65M cells / month = 2,16M cells / day = 90k cells per hour = 25 cells per second !!
- 195M cells / month = 6,5M cells / day = 271k cells per hour = 75 cells per second !! (run rate end of 2018)

WOW ! Bullet speed indeed !!!
Remember all these cells have to be produced, but also get the initial charge and be aged and tested.
This needs lots of energy and storage space. Just try to imagine.. Flabbergasted I think the word is.

And than doubling that again as targeted in 2020.

The exact numbers are hard to pin down exactly, there are a lot of variables. My current working model is 13 Wh/cell for TE and 20 Wh/cell for TA.

I guesstimated 10 GWh for the first phase and 25 GWh for the second phase, but reviewing my numbers I'm not so sure they are entirely accurate.

35 GWh/year and a 50/50 distribution would be 176.8 million cells per month, but there probably should be more TA-cells. 350k Model 3 run rate at ~70 kWh average pack size in late 2018 would be 24.5 GWh/year, 70% of 35 GWh/year. With a 70/30 distribution, 35 GWh/year works out to a little over 160 million cells per month.

If this estimate for late 2018 is correct, I can extrapolate that phase one is around 53 million cells per month. Or 8.27 GWh/year worth of TE cells.

 

[JBRR]

"Faraday Future FF91 Impressions" from CES by youtuber Marques Brownlee

Edit: Electrec beat me to it

Faraday Future FF91 gets a test drive by MKBHD, let’s try to keep an open mind

 

[JBRR]

London breaches annual air pollution limit for 2017 in just five days

"This week new data also revealed that modern diesel cars produce 10 times more NO2 pollution than heavy trucks and buses per litre of fuel, which experts say is due to the much tougher testing faced by heavy vehicles."

 

[NOLA_Mike]

London breaches annual air pollution limit for 2017 in just five days

"This week new data also revealed that modern diesel cars produce 10 times more NO2 pollution than heavy trucks and buses per litre of fuel, which experts say is due to the much tougher testing faced by heavy vehicles."

 

[GoTslaGo]

Just to add some more findings to long term risk:

Dementia risk linked to living near busy roads

 

[NOLA_Mike]

View attachment 209194
that's what I'm seeing... it hadn't broke the uptrend until last friday, but it looks like it recovered.

I'm far from a TA expert, but to me this action invalidated that pattern going forward:

Initially it looked like a fail to the downside and had it gone back to the previous uptrend line and been rejected it would've been bearish but since it moved back thru the uptrend I would look at it as a "failed" break down (a look below and fail) and thus was a bullish signal.

Your thoughts?

Mike

 

[austinEV]

Gas retailers have all the motivation in the world to support EV.
They make very little on the sale of fuel compared to the much greater margins on their convenience store.
Putting in a couple charging stations is a no brainer for them, as those customers will be more apt to buy some sandwiches, drinks, and other snacks to enjoy while they wait for their charge to be completed.

Gas stations with really big pads can survive. Have to be able to reconfigure with tons of chargers, and refit the buildings with big bathrooms, coffee/dining. Basically it will be easier to convert a Panera bread to a charger stop than a gas station.

Yes, model 3 car interiors
should be easily hosed out ... with builtin nozzles ... just hook up to water supply yuk

Like those self cleaning bathrooms! brilliant.

"Tea, earl grey, hot!"

My girlfriend: [makes earl grey tea]
Me: "Ha, I only know about that from the obvious reference."
My GF: "What is that?"

 

[T3slaTulips]

Gas stations with really big pads can survive.

Really big pads and the right location along major highways. Downtown stations really won't be needed.

 

[Krugerrand]

Costco mark up is 15% on all things sold that's their business strategy from day one. I thought this is a pretty common knowledge.

I don't shop at Costco. Just never needed to stock up on toilet paper 200 rolls at a time. I've never given Costco a second thought, until right this very moment. So, not common knowledge to me.

And here's the dilemma I now have. Do I believe you about mark up, or the other guy? Neither has provided any backup references or proof other than talking as if you're both authorities on the subject.

Just pointing that out.

 

[3Victoria]

London breaches annual air pollution limit for 2017 in just five days

"This week new data also revealed that modern diesel cars produce 10 times more NO2 pollution than heavy trucks and buses per litre of fuel, which experts say is due to the much tougher testing faced by heavy vehicles."

Some of the commenters to that article suggested restrictions for EVs only, but others say there aren't enough EVs. Yet the big 3 claim there is no demand for EVs?

We need to get way more serious about going EV.

 

[Krugerrand]

Is there only one cell production line at Gigafactory 1? How will it achieve the said "Economies of scale" with just 1 line?

If one line produces faster than four lines, do you think that would work?

 

[Krugerrand]

Well Toyota committed to Panasonic for their late-to-market EV effort. Recently they moved the project to report directly to Mr. Toyoda so they are clearly putting a high priority on it. What are the chances that Mr. Toyoda, who shook hands with Mr. Musk for their investment, the NUMMI plant sale and the RAV4 deal, is outsourcing development of their long range BEV drive train to former partner Tesla? Mr. Toyoda knows they are behind and what better way is there to accelerate their efforts than to leverage the expertise of the company with the most experience in using Panasonic cells in BEV applications.

That would make logical sense, but would he do it that way? I have no idea as I know nothing about that man. I do know a little about Japanese culture.

 

[JBRR]

France’s Economy Minister in Bid to Woo Elon Musk’s Tesla

 

[AudubonB]

Gigafactory Tour Update:

I'll be creating a separate thread dedicated to a Tour Report. I'm behind on a lot of items more pressing to me, however, and I don't want to give the report short shrift. Doing it properly will include carefully going through 1h56m of audiotape...although we couldn't take any pictures, there was no audio restriction. I'm really hoping Tesla quickly releases the video stream of the formal presentation and Q&A; that would make my transcribing 1000% easier.

To allay concerns I've seen in any number of places: we were not subjected to ANY NDAs of any kind. There are not 5-6 dozen investors and analysts out in the wild knowing something you can't learn.

 

[Drax7]

France’s Economy Minister in Bid to Woo Elon Musk’s Tesla

french labor laws are a piece of cake.

 

[dennis]

From the Electrek article quoting Adam Jonas:

According to Mr. Musk, they feel ‘pretty good’ about the pace of progress at the Gigafactory which manufactures the Model 3 battery pack, electric motor, drivetrain and power electronics. He did highlight the riskiest components as some of the long lead items such as stamping dies for the body panels and the seats.

Could this explain why we haven't seen any Model 3 beta units? We know they hand built 3 alphas, only 2 of which are driveable. We also heard they had ordered enough parts for 300 betas, although there was speculation that some portion of those wouldn't necessarily be used for completed cars. Does anyone know if betas are built from the stamping dies that will be used on the production line or is there some intermediate way to produce the thousands of body panels needed by the betas?

 

[Waiting4M3]

french labor laws are a piece of cake.

at least they don't apply to robots just yet

 

[Spidy]

"Faraday Future FF91 Impressions" from CES by youtuber Marques Brownlee

Edit: Electrec beat me to it

Faraday Future FF91 gets a test drive by MKBHD, let’s try to keep an open mind

Just post the source. God what is is with this forum where everyone has to post it via electrek like it's something special. It's just some random blogger's opinion on it, it's like quoting a comment on this forum.

 

[racer26]

That impressions video does a much better job of showing what I said about the interior of the FF91, especially around the 2:50 mark. The performance version that allegedly beat the MS P100DL by 0.01 0-60 on stage is hardly a showroom ready car. Its a prototype with very sparse interior - and is therefore considerably lighter than a car ready to sell to a customer.

 

[EinSV]

<snip> God what is is with this forum where everyone has to post it via electrek like it's something special. It's just some random blogger's opinion on it, it's like quoting a comment on this forum.

I totally disagree.

I think Electrek has become the single best and most reliable source for information about Tesla and EVs generally. I do see from various sources that there is a concerted effort among FUDsters and short sellers to undermine Electrek's reputation. I guess they prefer information coming from folks like Niedermeyer, Bertel Schmitt and Charley Grant of the WSJ, who feed up everything with the negative spin they want.