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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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I think we will find out that President Trump has given Elon Musk the green light to revamp the entire electrical grid. I think we are going to see something so spectacular our grandchildren's children will talk about it.
whilst at the same time opening the gates for more oil to be drilled and transported..........I guess it's a game to see which one will keep humanity alive.....
 
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Trump his no cognizance of social norms.
It's been a long time since the Astor's were merely developers of real estate in and around New York City. Reportedly, Trump was not socially accepted by old money. Hence his opposition to the political establishment is explained.

He obviously has a great deal of talent but will soon learn if he wants to become a truly great president there's a difference between winning and governing. Already he's at least 2.9+ million votes behind. His greatness will be measured by how much he governs all of us or merely appeases the faction represented by the Republican party's worst elements.

Traditional presidents would have started at once; we can measure the progress upward of markets depending on how long is the latency of this personality defect. To state the obvious, winning is not necessarily succeeding and the longer he feels this way we all will be hurt. In real estate alone he has survived a lot of failures, often with foreign help.

I'm all for better relations with Russia and it is clear the Bushes, Clintons, and Obama have made classical mistakes by extending the influence of NATO instead of incorporating Russia within it as I've argued elsewhere. But I have a bad feeling about Putin. In the heyday right after Gorbachev's fall one of my students claimed to be the son of a secret police officer and was therefore probably destined for a similar future. (A common occurrence here too since it helps with security concerns.) He told me: "we in that nomenklatura will survive and flourish since we are everywhere and we know everything."
 
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It's not mutually exclusive to support clean energy and create new jobs utilizing existing natural resources.
Tesla can't hire every single worker in the automotive, construction, and energy industries who need a job.

The day will come when we will all be using clean energy and renewable resources. TODAY, we need jobs.

Not wanting to be political about it just trying to see all perspectives fairly.

More income for Americans means more money for luxury goods like Teslas!
 
So...people's thoughts/feeling/observations about Elon's tweet in favor of Rex Tillerson? I'm feeling something here about a carbon tax or dropping subsidies...

"This may sound surprising coming from me, but I agree with The Economist. Rex Tillerson has the potential to be an excellent Sec of State."

Elon Musk on Twitter

Oh my that was a depressing few minutes spent reading the hoi polloi react to this tweet and his followups. He really should not engage with random social media users. Elon's position is what I've been telling people so it reaffirms my faith in him in that respect. I also presume he knows that this helps ingratiate him with Trump since this is a very public token of commitment/loyalty to Trump's pick and thus Trump's judgement. Just don't talk to the hoi polloi. They can't go beyond superficial pattern matching.
 
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How large of a factor is capital gains taxation when it comes to peoples decision to hold?

I got in when SP was around 200 with the biggest salvo I could. It wouldn't be a bad move to set a sell limit to 250. But I'm not wanting to do that because of the higher taxation rates for stocks held less than one year.

Is the best move to just get out at the first sign of a dip, watch to rebuy or just hold for a year and make decisions at that point?

Long term vs short term cap gains is a big one for me.... my original strategy when I piled in at 180 was half long term stock, half trading. I was nervous about, and still learning, options. Making that core position 2019 LEAPS, instead of stock, would have been great...

Now I'm considering converting some of what was intended to be "trading material" to a long term hold. The medium term options will have to go, and I will have to shuffle stuff around to get out of margin (don't like being on margin long-term).

Yes, long term cap gains taxation vs short term is making me reluctant to sell shares and the few LEAPs I have, even tho I originally intended to trade some of that position rather than hold. Time will tell what happens, this is rather dynamic.

Remember the days we were buying the 180, getting worried about the dips to 179, and trying to decide when to sell all and buy back at 150? Those were the days....
 
whilst at the same time opening the gates for more oil to be drilled and transported..........I guess it's a game to see which one will keep humanity alive.....
I share your concern. I hope Musk at least got GF2 out of the deal. Batteries are absolutely essential to keeping oil in the ground. We'll need at least 10 TWh of annual capacity!

Oddly enough if Trump gets his way with Border Tax Adjustments, this will drive up the domestic price of gasoline and crude, reduce imports, strengthen the USD and drive down the global price of crude, Brent. So this would effectively put a tax on domestic oil products and potentially drive down consumption. Meanwhile renewable energy is made in America. I doubt that Trump really intends this in his BTA, but life is full of unintended consequences.
 
Amen. But I suspect that you are in the 10% of people that can contemplate that balance.

I'm racking up the vote downs but so far, no intelligent discussion to counter it. People need to be pragmatic, no matter who is in office. Tesla has a tremendous ally right now in the leader of the free world.

You don't get to pick the cards you are dealt. You just play them.
 
It's been a long time since the Astor's were merely developers of real estate in and around New York City. Reportedly, Trump was not socially accepted by old money. Hence his opposition to the political establishment is explained.

He obviously has a great deal of talent but will soon learn if he wants to become a truly great president there's a difference between winning and governing. Already he's at least 2.9+ million votes behind. His greatness will be measured by how much he governs all of us or merely appeases the faction represented by the Republican party's worst elements.

Traditional presidents would have started at once; we can measure the progress upward of markets depending on how long is the latency of this personality defect. To state the obvious, winning is not necessarily succeeding and the longer he feels this way we all will be hurt. In real estate alone he has survived a lot of failures, often with foreign help.

I'm all for better relations with Russia and it is clear the Bushes, Clintons, and Obama have made classical mistakes by extending the influence of NATO instead of incorporating Russia within it as I've argued elsewhere. But I have a bad feeling about Putin. In the heyday right after Gorbachev's fall one of my students claimed to be the son of a secret police officer and was therefore probably destined for a similar future. (A common occurrence here too since it helps with security concerns.) He told me: "we in that nomenklatura will survive and flourish since we are everywhere and we know everything."
T is a blowhard creep that eeked his way into the presidency to even his own surprise... the guy is a lying freak of nature... and America will soon see it's weakest days because of it.

there's so many people attempting to look rationally at a T government... like you seem to be above... and there is no rationality to what has just occurred.
 
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I look at it this way. The fence-sitters were vindicated the last 2 years. The shorts felt brilliant at times too. But they have a deadline. By the end of 2017 we will see real volume in M3, TE, and progress on solar products. At that point the "multiple companies in one" narrative will be running and the valuation will simply have to be higher. When does the market adjust up to that point? I actually think it will be later in the year, but who knows? Maybe it really is now. The market should move ahead of the reality, so maybe this is the big move now.

Chart:
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Maybe another way to look at it is to see how much market capitalization was added to Tesla at the break outs. At the price we are at, to match the previous jump, the market capitalization is inconceivable to the major buyers therefore in the short term I'm looking at the limiting upside using market capitalization. We are limited to, say GM cap or even F, as the upside limit for M3 reveal, first delivery and ramp in 2017. This hold true as long as the major analysts see Tesla as just another car manufacturer.
 
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Here's what the doubters are missing:

Unlike the Models s/x programs, the Model 3 program is being designed from the start to mass produce a certain number of cars. They're building a machine that is designed to produce 500,000 cars per year in 2018. Why would anyone think a machine designed to produce 500,000 cars will in fact turn out much fewer? It would be like designing a computer chip to run at a certain speed, build it, and find out it actually runs at half that speed.

The reason Tesla can build this machine is that they know it will be utilized - they have 15B of reservations. I can't believe that the share price is still right around the same as when they got the reservations. It's going to be the biggest consumer product launch in human history. Elon has said that in 2018 they expect to sell 20B of model 3 for 5B gross profit. I think a lot people are applying the 'if it sounds too good to be true in probably is' theory. Big mistake.
 
...cozying up...

I just tweeted:

"Cozy to Trump team might compromise values & credibility by adopting "Alternative Facts" as a norm."

Tesla might very well be on the wrong side of history on this.

As an engineer company whose value for science is very important, associating to Trump team with a habit of falsehood might damage its brand.

It might be a short term rally for now, but at the expense of the effect of potential losing credibility?




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