JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Tesla stock taking off and we're talking about Ford?
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Krugerrand
Meow
Most of the time footage is uploaded the same day as it's 'made'. Jan 21st was a Saturday. That's self-explanatory, right?
jesselivenomore
Member
General market: the past 2 years have been some of the most FUD ridden, bear filled "bull market" I've ever seen. Almost not a day goes by without CNBC inviting the next hedge fund short on to call the next top or crash. For those who have been through 2008 and 2000, that is not how sentiment behaves during market peaks. Not to get political, but Trump getting elected may have been the exclamation point to all this contrarian sentiment with every commentator calling for a doomsday, shaking out many in the process. Banks are now breaking to new highs. China data just came out last Friday above expectations, prompting copper to rally 4% in a day. One by one the bear thesis is crumbling. I believe we are now moving on to a phase of realization where we are breaking free from the negativity. This could last years(with pullbacks of course), ending with euphoria before the final top.
Tesla: obviously this would be beneficial.
Tesla: obviously this would be beneficial.
This to me appears to be a classic case of buy the rumors-sell the news type event in the last few weeks. Regardless of the news during the Q4 ER I'm expecting a relatively significant pull-back to the $260s for some gap-filling. However, I wouldn't be surprised if we hit ATH by 2/22. My strategy will be to ride the wave up with my core stock holdings and purchase some puts right before the ER.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Tesla can put remote parking anywhere. Autonomous shuttles would make it all the better. Workers can even be picked up at home.
Krugerrand
Meow
Krugerrand
Meow
I can't even believe he went down that road. Elon changed his mind a long time ago about leaving or even about becoming COB.
I don't know. For me, I need reassurances more than ever at this juncture. We are near ATH. The natural inclination is to lighten up, just as natural inclination would be to load up in 180s or 160s. So I don't think re-discussing valuation for the nth time hurts.
Seems natural to discuss Ford's market cap, given that F is the next auto industry market cap for Tesla to eclipse on a move upward.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Looks like Musk started growing his beard in time to meet with the Sheik.
I have nothing better to comment on.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
There is no way we have a ER selloff. I give the chance less than 10%. The guidance will be just too good.
Still fighting hard over at Twitter gang! Congrats and stay long for Pete sake! The squeeze hasn't even occurred yet!
Still fighting hard over at Twitter gang! Congrats and stay long for Pete sake! The squeeze hasn't even occurred yet!
racer26
Active Member
Needed to grow more hair to rip out?
Really though, I don't understand why people get so hung up on the notion of TSLA's market cap eclipsing other automakers who build many more cars than Tesla does. Sure, they build more cars - but that's not the important number. Many of the cars the other automakers sell are on wafer-thin, or in some cases even negative margins. Tesla enjoys some of the largest margins in the industry. As for P/E multiples being much larger for TSLA, are any of the other automakers branching out into other markets, or creating entirely new markets? Do they have room to grow to 10x or more of their current footprint in the market?
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
TSLA is going to build another Gigafactory and make the shorts pay for it.
That's odd - I'm not saying you're wrong - because on irregular occasion I scour its entire portfolio unsuccessfully looking for TSLA and wondering why it can't be found. Time to look again...
Because all know how crucial that all-important P/Vehicle ratio has been over the last 120 years?
More crudely, amongst analysts the saying is "p/s is best understood once you raise its first line above the horizontal".
For me, I look at TSLA like this.
Ground transportation is crucial to modern society. Currently, this service is provided by multiple players.
0. You have government to build roads.
1. You have oil companies to extract crude oil and refine it.
2. You have oil service companies to build the pipeline or other methods to get the oil from production to consumption.
3. You have gas stations to serve individuals.
4. You have auto OEMs to build the cars.
5. You have dealers to sell the cars and service them.
6. You have drivers to drive them (it's either costing your time, or your money to hire someone to drive for you)
7. You have insurance companies to cover accidents.
8. You have parking lots to put the cars when not being used.
Together, this sector is worth a few trillion dollars at least. I don't think there's doubt about this.
The most obvious thing to think of TSLA is tied with 4. TSLA does build cars right. But also TSLA sells you the car, eliminating dealers. So 4+5. But then the big battery itself is capturing part of 1-3. Combined with solar, its getting an even bigger part of 1-3, arguably even more because you can use electricity to power up other stuff. Then comes self-driving. This covers 6-8 by providing the driving service, lowering the accident rates, and reducing need of parking space. The only part TSLA doesn't touch is 0, the road. But with the tunnel thing, I don't know.
Unless people value the service of ground transportation and/or their time less in the future (which is possible I think, there could be a new method of individual/logistic transportation method invented). TSLA has a long way to go. 1 T market cap is not that wild actually.
Comparing TSLA to GM/F/FCAU is only seeing 4, maybe a little 5. Therefore is fundamentally undervaluing TSLA by a ton.
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Long time forum participants will remember way back in 13, when 4-5% daily moves were not only common, but met with wave after wave of additional short selling. There was absolutely NO WAY that Tesla could be worth $5 billion dollars.
Almost got to the point where the exchange needed to staff up on grief counselors.
Are we due for a short pullback after the tremendous run up from $149? Don't care.
Am I worried about whether TSLA tanks because yearly guidance missed by 400 cars out of 50,000 produced? Nah
Am I worried about the next earnings coming out shortly, wondering if gross margins will be 25% or 25.5%? Not for a minute
Am I pondering whether the current rally is because: 1) TSLA was way oversold down to $149, 2) General marker euphoria, 3) Analysts and public starting to figure out what TSLA is going to become, 4) maybe someone knows what is going to be divulged in the next CC, 5) Model 3 might be ahead of schedule.
Ponder the last one a bit. But short term fluctuations could be for any reason, and it is fun discussing them, but given the nature of the market you will never "know". Thats why I'm sticking with Leaps. I'll sell these the day before they need to be exercised. I sleep better at night using this "trading strategy". Especially the last couple months...
RT
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