Actually, on a 60 kWh pack, 3.6 volts corresponds to ~0 miles of range. It is possible to accidentally discharge below that, as kmanauto had done in his 60. But that's driving below 0 miles as presented by the car. The onboard BMS exposes the voltage range of 3.6 volts to 4.2 volts. So it's roughly cycling at 75% to 0% to get ~12% degradation at 3,000 cycles with high temps, charging and discharging at 2C. Driving 75% to 0% and Supercharging at 130 kW over and over again, roughly 125-140 miles at a time (using ~155 miles of rated range) is basically doing Supercharger jumps over and over. These results show that the pack would have 12% degradation after 396,000 miles. And this is a 60 kWh pack. Of course, the lab result doesn't exactly correspond to the real word and YMMV and any particular pack may have weaker cells.
You only mentioned total mileage, not someone range charging each day and driving to depletion, or roughly 180 miles a day. Even then, degradation is really more a function of how long one stays at the highest voltage. It apparently doesn't affect it as much if one range charges and then leaves soon afterwards.
You wanted data, I supplied data from Panasonic's own researchers using NCA chemistry. Whether it is 400 mAh or 3150 mAh, it doesn't matter for life cycle testing... its more about optimization. Even if you took a discount factor, it shows that 2,000 to 3,000 charge cycles is far more likely than 1,000, to 80% using the voltage ranges exposed, especially factoring in use patterns. Very few people range charge every single charge cycle.
Going back to your original surmising, switching to NMC cells for automotive use doesn't make much sense for Tesla given the current state of things since they already did the hard work on the pack design to handle NCA. For someone else, they may not want to sort through such pack design, so using bigger NMC pouch/prismatic cells makes sense to them... it's not like they're trying to win at BEVs yet anyways.
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