2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[erthquake]

@1:50
I think a lot of people missed this.

"we're having this debate, how adventerous do we want to be with the model 3. The simplest thing would be to make it a smaller version of the model S - but then we could also try to do something more radical. I think we're gonna do something more radical."

But that was said before the troubled Model X rollout. Still, I want to believe

 

[sundaymorning]

And now center consoles are standard on the S.

Yes and I hate it. There's always two sides to the coin. Only advantage to that console is the hidden cup compartment for the rear seat. I'm in love with my console-less MS.

A console is something that takes a few minutes to install and not too much technology is involved. If BMW's or any legacy's main selling point is their HUD, then their consumer must be ready to shell out an extra $2,500 for it (yes, that HUD we think we're getting for free actually cost money too). From my perspective, most M3 buyers aren't into that kind of spending for a "lil ole speedometer" display.

HUD-less M3 means cost advantage and price advantage over competitors. That's the real genius. Consumers may say that they would pay $2,500 for a HUD, but it's going to be very hard check to sign that check with M3 being a bit cheaper. That extra $2.5k can get you supercharging capability. It's a no brainer.

Now before you knock on Tesla, do a bit of testing and research by covering the HUD on the model S and look at the huge iPad and imagine the HUD there, it's actually positioned better than the smaller one where you need to peak through the steering wheel. And yes, I've tried this on my model S and approve the change. As a matter of fact, it's actually easier on your neck.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Ok Tsunami of short comments, here we go:

I may get pilloried for this, but I actually see a lot in common between Apple and Tesla fans. True zealotry is actually maybe only a small % of all fans, but there is a shared faith in the vision of the founder(s) of each company. Faith being the important word. 5 years ago most people said I was 100% crazy for betting on Elon Musk. There is far less objection today, but a substantial # of people I know are still convinced that Tesla will never amount to much. I heard much the same about Apple in the late 90's and early 2000's.

All of this is a bet on a fellow with a vision, outsized ambition, and tendency to make bold promises using exaggeration. I fully admit that it is a bet on my part, because people like Musk only show up once in a very long time.

I'd like to think that we have more constructive criticism and don't just follow Elon like sheep.

It wasn't just the spaceship comment, but it was also borne out of our reaction that the single display might not be enough to safely help us keep our eyes on the road. The Yaris's display is higher and further away from the driver than the Model 3 display. I'm concerned that even the top left corner of the Model 3 display isn't within useful peripheral vision.

Fair points, this is why I said we will only know once people start test rides or we see reviews.

There have also been hires from companies working on augmented reality products e.g. HoloLens from Microsoft, and someone from Skullcandy I think (trying to find the info on that)

If you are REALLY SAYING that Elon's tweet that said "wait 'til you see the real steering system" referred to Elon's view at the time of the current prototype interior as debuted very clearly during the reveal event, IMO you are crazy. Maybe you are right and I am wrong, but I believe Elon was referring to something else quite different when he tweeted, and we have not seen that yet.

I wouldn't be surprised if he wants to debut a car with no steering wheel - but something else instead that is less intrusive during self-driving.

I never said anything about the steering system tweet. I am not sure what that one has to do with HUD unless you were expecting a motion detecting 3D touch type of HUD based steering, which is not spaceship, nut pure sci-fi.

Before the digital age, a HUD is necessary, but now that the digital age has arrived, you don't need two displays.

Right, that is a very valid statement in 3-5 years. Not today. Elon's optimistic projection was SW ready by EOY followed by years of regulatory validation. So 2019? 2020? The M3 hits the road this fall.

Tesla probably already have HUD ready, but maybe they want to add HUD to Model S/X first (Elon said S/X will get the best technology first), otherwise, it will hurt the sales of Model S/X, and since their focus is on Model 3 for now, they don't want to introduce hardware upgrade to Model S/X before Model 3 is done. I guess Tesla will introduce HUD to Model S/X before holiday season of 2017 to fuel the Model S/X order, and then add HUD to Model 3 in 2018.

That is still very much possible.

We were told Model 3 would compete favorably with BMW 3 Series and Audi A4 not a Yellow Cab Prius.

Right. The taxi comment made my cringe a bit too.

Tesla will not have a massive powertrain and charging network advantage forever. Especially in Europe where private CCS networks are expanding quickly and in China where the national government will expand their standard quickly. At some point Tesla will have to have competitive interiors. Better now than later.

Agree. If BMW or the VW group step up their game, that will be fierce competition. Volvo too. Tesla better be ready by then. But based on their new hires on interior design and augmented reality I think they are on the right path.

 

[AlMc]

Short interest as of March 15, 2017 was reported yesterday. Short interest remained virtually unchanged from the last reported number but based on the average daily volume of *about* 4 million the days to cover increased to 7.67.

short interest 31,068,721

 

[RobStark]

Yes and I hate it.

And do you know why center consoles became standard?

Because the overwhelming majority ordered the optional console when offered.

I suspect if there is no HUD/instrument cluster then Tesla offers one as an option the overwhelming majority will buy one as an option.

 

[electracity]

The upcoming generation of drivers, or should we say passengers, are all about Tesla. I don't think energy and resources into the interior will be a benefit to the company.

It doesn't take much energy or resources to improve the interior, as it is a profit center. Musk just needs to hire experienced people and let them do their work. While the early basic interior of the model S was due to limited resources and available time, that is not true today. Musk told us the problem when he promoted "the worlds best second row seats". The problem is that his taste and wants for interiors is not the taste of the average Tesla buyer. He has played Steve Jobs with the interior, but without the same skill and taste.

 

[winfield100]

Anything we can spot from the RC video? Elon is a master - 6 seconds of video which will be analysed frame-by-frame for anything we can ID.

Right off the bat, I see gloss black paint, confirming this is indeed a fourth Model 3 chassis.
It does indeed have the new style mechanically simple but still aero handles.
Some of the nose geometry and tail geometry seems a bit different.

That video looks "intriguingly" like the Tesla Firefly video where @ ~54 seconds I see a subtle morphing of body shape/length

 

[winfield100]

don't forget that initial orders are going to tesla and space-x employees. given a modest production ramp that may take up most of this year so the dual motor variants may be available "soon" after production opening to non-employees

......so how does an almost 70 year old get to be a summer intern, either place....?

 

[KLC13]

Guys, when you are driving next time do this little experiment:

Is it more distracting to see the current information cluster above the steering wheel or glancing just past your right hand (e.g. at the left air conditioning vent, but that too is farther away from the proposed info modal on M3).

I personally found looking at info cluster more distracting. If this new position of the speed info works better, than I think it will be another positively disruptive design change from Tesla.

 

[Navin]

Attention folks - if you want to understand the soul of tesla - it begins with Elon musk. Watch this video. If you are short and betting against this guy - good freakin luck.

 

[Lump]

Short interest as of March 15, 2017 was reported yesterday. Short interest remained virtually unchanged from the last reported number but based on the average daily volume of *about* 4 million the days to cover increased to 7.67.

short interest 31,068,721

Whoa, look at that, an actual useful & relevant TSLA posts, scroll wheel is wearing out skipping over all the off topics.

 

[winfield100]

I never watched the moon launch, because I wasn't born yet. I grew up during the Space Shuttle era, so I thought of interiors more like First Class seats on an airline.

watching the Saturn 5, when they lit the torch, flames came out and the rocket gave a slight shudder, and SAT there, then slowly, ponderously, lifted and flew, accelerating. todays rockets, spacex etal, "climb like homesick angels"

 

[Drax7]

Attention folks - if you want to understand the soul of tesla - it begins with Elon musk. Watch this video. If you are short and betting against this guy - good freakin luck.

Gives me goose bumps, rocketry was a hobby of mine as a teenager.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I'd like to think that we have more constructive criticism and don't just follow Elon like sheep.

I did say that only a small % of Tesla and Apple fans fell into the "zealot" category (aka people who defend the company no matter what). Even in the glory days of Apple, circa 2008-2011, when it seemed like the company could do no wrong, fans did criticize the company for misteps like the iPhone 4 antenna band issue.

It doesn't take much energy or resources to improve the interior, as it is a profit center. Musk just needs to hire experienced people and let them do their work. While the early basic interior of the model S was due to limited resources and available time, that is not true today.

I don't expect this recent hire to have immediate effect on the Model 3's minimalist interior, but I believe that Model S, X, and 3 will see substantial changes/improvement in the coming years:

Tesla nabs Volvo’s top interior designer

"Anders Bell, Volvo’s senior director of engineering and “head of interior engineering” for the automaker, will soon have a new job at Tesla.

For the last two years, Bell has been in charge of all interior engineering for Volvo, taking cars from concept to launch."

 

[gigglehertz]

Weekend OT conspiract theory:

Tesla hiring 2 people with HUD expertise along with no instrument cluster screams HUD. I think people are getting hung up on the spaceship comment. Elon did say they weren't going to be too adventurous with the 3 at first, aiming for streamlined production and an easy production ramp. I think a HUD may have been delayed for some reason (problems with glare etc) so it may launch without one. Perhaps this (or no dual motor) is the inside info Adam Jonas may have misconstrued as no Model 3 until late 2018 or whatever. (Isn't it strange how connected Wall St people always seem to run into this inside info?) I believe he did mention in that note that Tesla wanted to prioritize safety.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

I wonder what the scroll tabs on the steering wheel are for? Controlling the center screen?

 

[dennis]

I personally think the single center screen will be a total non issue for the stock, and for customers. After reading endless posts here about it I recently did a long drive in my Toyota Sienna which has a normal steering wheel cluster, and a small center display for the heater/clock (Which is way farther to the center than the top left corner of the Model 3 screen). I spent several hours on the freeway looking at each of the two displays endlessly, and came to the conclusion that the ways your eyes work you have to take your focus completely off of the road to look at either of them. The idea that you can look down at your speedometer, and keep your eyes on the road at the same time is BS in my opinion.

Totally agree. I have this favorite freeway exit ramp by my house where I test the handling of the cars I purchase. It involves getting the car to the edge of losing traction and holding that speed through the cloverleaf. It requires total concentration on the road ahead. It was easy to determine speed in my 2006 M5 with HUD, almost impossible in everything else because I have to drop my eyes down to read the speedo, even with the large and crisp digital displays in my Model S and McLaren 12C. The only way to reach the fastest speed and note it is to have a brave passenger reading the speedo.

 

[AlMc]

Weekend musings after the recent EM model 3 tweet storm:

Now that EM has let us all in on some model 3 news we are all trying to read the tea leaves on what the model 3 Configuration Page and the model 3 itself will be like at launch.

What we know (or I think we know) now to be priorities at launch.
1. Have a base price vehicle be what EM said it would be: base of $35k
2. Have it be easy to make, thus easy to ramp (learned from model X ramp issues)
3. Similar to #2: Don't offer everything that will eventually be available at launch (again, learned from model X where too much was offered
from the beginning.
4. Make sure there is a clear delineation between the S and the '3', at least at launch.

Given the above what will the configuration page look initially?

1. Very few options:
a. paint: one standard (white) and 3 metallic (upgrade)
b. interior: Two seat colors: black or tan (leatherette standard); leather (upgrade)
c. battery: two choices standard 55; upgrade 75
2. No HUD
3. Probably NO mention of AWD. If they do have it on the Config Page they indicate it is available in mid 2018

Simplifying the design page/choices simplifies the production process and if people want 'S amenities' they buy an S. The early model 3s will have negative (or very low) margins and the ramp has to be fast to take advantage of the 60-90 day supplier bills. In addition, keeping the S and 3 very different will push some people that don't want to wait till 2018 for an AWD 3 into an S (or X). Selling as many higher margin Ss during the ramp is going to help overall GMs.

Moving forward. Once they have gauged demand and had a successful ramp it is time to put the HUD and interior upgrades into the S and X. I think early 2018 (late 2017 if demand for S seems to be a problem). Then later in 2018, maybe even when they open up AWD 3s, the HUD shows up on the 3 design page. At this point the margins should be very good with faster production rates and high margin upgrades.

 

[sundaymorning]

Here's a nice breakdown of the M3 giff

 

[Reciprocity]

Dumb idea here, but what if there was a cell phone dock where the the second screen typically was. When you dock your phone, it automatically becomes the second display with data directly from the car. Could even use your cells data instead of built in 4g to keep costs lower for base sticker price.