racer26
Active Member
Or else the cars have to be twice as reliable... That would yield a similar load.
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sundaymorning
Active Member
With the current logistical plans to first release M3 only to employees, Tesla is hoping to eliminate many problems before releasing them to the public. This gives them time to retool and readjust robotics where necessary. Since employees have their car on the lot at the factory 8 hours per day, many issues could be quickly fixed same day. Once the public gets their vehicle, the product has already been streamlined to perfection. With that being said, I'm sure they'll open more service centers for M3. And we likely won't see the MX type of fiasco rollout. Tesla is a fast learner and they evolve quickly, even in terms of delivery and service...
Lots of that stuff doesn't require a service center and can be handled by Tesla Rangers. I believe they are ramping that program up substantially.
Great read. Tesla is at the center of this disruption similar to how Apple was at the center of the mobile computer revolution 10 years ago.
Cars and second order consequences
Cars and second order consequences
thank you for actual numbers. may i use them to refute?
I created a major firestorm/shugar storm/ name calling storm from a lot of shorts and "wanna be shorts" when I questioned the numbers and called "BS" I suspected due to vehemence of attacks I was close to truth, but it is Seeking alpha, It's a crappy juvenile graph that edward tufte Edward Tufte: Posters and Graph Paper would laugh at
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
If they can figure out how to build an alien dreadnaught production line to build them, delivery is mouse nuts.
Unfortunately for you, it's one of my Life goals to convert AlThanks, but I stopped celebrating birthdays several years ago!
from Cautious Bull to Raging Bull.
Note: some of us set our Life goals low enough to guarantee internal self-worth to the world
DurandalAI
Member
Yes, I fully expect and predicted a long time ago that after or at Model 3 introduction we will see a Tesla app store, with apps running in a walled garden. The production volumes will certainly justify it! Also, fully-autonomous driving will free-up the driver to use the apps. I'd also like to see Amazon Alexa VUI (Voice User Interface) technology integrated into the Model 3 at some point. Frankly, I'd love to use it in my Model X today, since it wouldn't distract me from the road. People could order stuff from Bezos while driving around, so AMZN will make money from this very desirable demographic, too.
The are many other things Tesla could do if they wanted to monetize Model 3 owners, besides Tesla Network. One is to sell auto insurance with discounts off premium based upon various factors like % of time using fully autonomous driving, where and home much driven, etc., which only Tesla knows. This way, I wouldn't have had to pay anything for car insurance on my X when it spent 2 months 11/30-early Feb in the body shop waiting for parts to fix a collision with road debris that fell off a pick-up truck!
Considering that the screen has access to control certain functions of the vehicle, I would not want there to be an app store for the screen. Honestly, I'm not even happy about the fact that there is a web browser that can access the internet. It's a security risk that has only been utilized once as a proof of concept so far, but I think as a whole those systems should be as insulated from apps and the internet as possible. I'm aware of sandboxing and other such methods, but they are not foolproof by any means. We all have mobile devices these days anyhow, so I don't think that there will be much of a benefit.
Go right ahead, rattle their cages!
They prefer not to talk about one simple fact that at any given moment, including end of the quarter there are always cars in transit, manufactured, but not delivered. Tesla was batching production geographically to minimize quantity of cars in transit, but this practice is or about to stop because it creates lopsided delivery schedule when deliveries are very light during the first and second month of the quarter, with majority of cars delivered during the final month of the quarter. This practice is not sustainable with M3 coming to the mix, as production is slated for steep rise.
So if one assumes average global transit time - time between moment a car is manufactured and time when it is delivered - of 6 weeks, and MS/MX production of 2.5k cars per week, the steady state production with orders apportioned to geographic regions according to the rate of incoming orders from these regions (rather then batching orders to minimize cars in the pipeline), the total quantity of cars in transit would normally be 15k.
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3Victoria
Active Member
StapleGun
Member
They must be pretty happy with this since they didn't provide any extra commentary.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I was hoping for at least 22.5k
A win should feel like a win.
50k for first half should be in the bag.
A win should feel like a win.
50k for first half should be in the bag.
I have a feeling their shipping practices as we know them will change with Model 3 (until they get factories in Europe and Asia). I googled a bit, and found the world's largest vehicle transporter ship can carry up to 8500 cars, but other more typical ones are 5-6k. (Did not do much research, but that's what I've found).
So, for instance, I imagine Tesla usually put all their Europe bound cars on 1 ship halfway through the quarter, filling it fully / mostly, to minimize cost per car. Starting with Model 3, "they need a bigger boat", or rather, more ships per quarter. So they will probably move from the once a quarter schedule to a conveyor belt type of approach, with several ships per month, maybe. This would mean less batching, as whatever S or X is intended for e.g. Germany for early February, would just join a couple of thousand Model 3s heading to Tilburg in January and so on.
racer26
Active Member
Just over 25k, so... More than half of the high end of the 47-50k guidance. Smells like a no excuses beat to me.
dandurston
Member
Nice results!
Can anyone explain how deliveries (25k) can be less than production (25.4k) and yet cars in transit to customers drops (~6.5k to 4.6k IIRC)?
The only way I can think of it is that non-customer assigned inventory has increased by a few thousand. So there is an extra ~3k in inventory.
Can anyone explain how deliveries (25k) can be less than production (25.4k) and yet cars in transit to customers drops (~6.5k to 4.6k IIRC)?
The only way I can think of it is that non-customer assigned inventory has increased by a few thousand. So there is an extra ~3k in inventory.
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