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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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This is a forum, not a Facebook page. If someone posts something with which you disagree, rebut it.

For reference, and not in relation to any current event: This is not always appropriate. Rebuttal is appropriate for *legitimate* disagreement. It isn't actually appropriate when dealing with pure trolling, either of the "repeating something for the 10th time after it's been debunked 9 times" variety or the "Gish Gallop" variety.

People debating professional creationists, flat-earthers, climate deniers, "Tesla loses money on every car sold" types, and other similar trolls, have learned long ago that arguing with those people is not a matter of legitimate argument, but a matter of rhetoric -- they're not using legitimate arguments, they're using non-reasoning tactics, and you have to use non-reasoning tactics right back at them.

At some point, when dealing with genuine full-time trolls, the options are ignore until they go away (which *does not always work*); mock and insult them until they go away; or ban. The worst error one can make as a moderator is to ban the people who mock and insult a troll while retaining the troll; that kills a forum stone cold dead, as the people you wanted to keep leave en masse and only the trolls remain (and I've watched this happen more than once to forums). Moderatin' is hard.

I think in the last few months we have only had one genuine full-time troll here, but damn he was annoying.
 
Top level cynicism dialed up... giving Tesla enough rope to hang itself as pioneer to release self-driving, and pioneer to release deluge of incoming lawsuits.

Lawsuits in Germany are pretty tame. Worst case (sounds cynical, but from a financial POV, it's true) the self-driving car hits a few people in a way that they survive, but need assistance until the end of their lives in 80 years. Compensation for that plus some tame compensation for pain / suffering will add up.

If the car kills someone, that will be a lot cheaper in Germany. We don't have those famous US multi-million $$$ lawsuits for compensation.
 
Lawsuits in Germany are pretty tame. Worst case (sounds cynical, but from a financial POV, it's true) the self-driving car hits a few people in a way that they survive, but need assistance until the end of their lives in 80 years. Compensation for that plus some tame compensation for pain / suffering will add up.

If the car kills someone, that will be a lot cheaper in Germany. We don't have those famous US multi-million $$$ lawsuits for compensation.

That's what insurance is for. That's why people like you and I have insurance and that's why self driving car companies will have insurance. The insurance company will evaluate the changes of the car killing someone where it's the cars fault and charge appropriately. The cars will kill some people, they are big and heavy and moving very fast in tight congested areas. I think the interim solution will be that Tesla provides insurance to owners and has it's on insurance for these situations. If the cars are safer, the insurance costs for Tesla will be lower in total, period. If they are not safer, then they should exist as a feature.

You can already see moves where Tesla will want to provide insurance and they are also opening body shops so they can control the costs of those insurance claims.
 
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On the Jonas downgrade today -- he had an even more significant downgrade shortly before the Model S launch, after earlier issuing a massive upgrade that sent the stock soaring.

Two data points do not make a pattern, but interesting how that played out. Here is a quick summary I put together for @Bgarret's thread on Jonas' pessimistic production forecast: Model III - Your Case: On Time or On Jonas Time?

And since this thread is a check-in on Tesla's plan versus Adam Jonas' forecast, let's see where was our friend Mr. Jonas was. Well, in March 2011 he issued a research note calling Tesla "America's Fourth Automaker" with a huge (at the time) price target of $70 and the stock price skyrocketed.Tesla Soars On Morgan Stanley Upgrade; Sees 200% Upside Thank you Mr. Jonas.

But then, in December 2011, six months before S deliveries began, Jonas slapped Tesla with a major downgrade, dropping his price target from $70 to $44. The stock tanked. Part of the downgrade was based on worries that the EV market would turn out to be smaller than expected. But part of it was due to concerns that the Model S ramp would be slower than expected. Tesla: Morgan Stanley Turns Bearish On Slower EV Adoption

But Jonas' negative outlook on production (admittedly not as pessimistic as in his current report) turned out to be incorrect and in September 2012, once Model S production was up and running, AJ upgraded again based on Tesla beating market expectations on production. So on Model S, AJ's prediction turned out to be conservative, but wrong. Which is fine -- I think as an analyst being conservative probably means you get to keep your job longer.​

So Jonas is still manic depressive on Tesla, but maybe he is getting less so over the years. In any case, I think there is a decent chance that this downgrade works out the same way his downgrade before the Model S launch did. :)
 
Is it me or AJ feeling more and more insecure about his PT, he's been screaming at the top of his lungs the same PT the past 3 times, each and every time when the stock is on a tear past the $305 mark.
AJ trying to stay relevant in a industry of shady practices. Really a notch above dealership business model though slightly. In some aspect car dealers are more honest.
 
I'm just weighing in with a bit of optimism, due to the fact that I have company shares vesting today. I'll sell them all tomorrow and hopefully the money will clear immediately. Otherwise I'm stuck hoping this dip lasts until Thursday.

The challenging question is what a slow M3 rollout means for SP. I don't believe the current SP includes a near perfect launch. That idea is madness. The question is the level of tolerance for delays and quality problems.
 
1) Tesla will be making solar panels at the Buffalo GF not just tiles.

2) Elon claims solar roof cost less than a regular roof plus the cost of electricity. If so prove it by eating your own dog food. Elon did not claim solar roof cost less than a luxury roof plus the cost of electricity.
If you believe that Tesla behaving in a way that is inconsistent with their mission statement you should eat your own dog food and divest from TSLA, and stop polluting this thread with these ludicrous statements!

1. When Buffalo has not yet produced any tiles or panels it's a little early to make that complaint.

2. If they believe it's better to sell their output to meet customer demand that's equally good or better for the environment (better if they're selling panels or powerpacks to Hawaii for example because that displaces diesel generators).

3. Even if the reason that they are waiting is because they believe that its better to wait until they have more capital if you believe that their overall goal is furthering their mission statement that is something that intelligent investors should support.

I'm disappointed in your post because in the past I've respected your intelligent and useful posts, and I expect you to do better than this.
 
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Judge blocks top Uber engineer from working on key self-driving technology amid battle with Alphabet

"
One of Uber's top engineers will no longer be able to work on a key self-driving car technology, a U.S. judge ordered, adding a new hurdle in the ride-hailing company's race to get to market.

Uber will be able to continue working on its self-driving car technology, the U.S. judge said, but embattled engineer Anthony Levandowski must be removed from any work relating to a key technology called LIDAR.
"
 
Just set up a Solar Roof thread, Tesla Solar Roof

I hope with can have thorough discussion there in one handy location.
Thank you very very much! I hope that this will cause us to stop beating the topic to death here!

IMO the moderators should have done that a few days ago instead of being obsessed with the "ig" word.

"Ignore"
is not an obscenity!
 
Just found this on reddit, unfortunately, the source is not clear:
Goldman Sachs Client meetings with TSLA IR • r/teslamotors

The company noted digging themselves into somewhat of a hole with the switch to autopilot hardware 2.0 back in October 2016 –as they just recently were able to roll-out similar functionality to the first generation of autopilot hardware. However, with this –and a fleet of growing vehicles on the road collecting data, TSLA believes it has a widening lead relative to competitors. At present, the company has approx. 50k vehicles on the road with the potential for full autonomous vehicle ability; so with average annual vehicle miles traveled of approx. 12k per vehicle, TSLA is collecting data at a 600mn mile run-rate at present. By year end, on our volume delivery estimates, this increases to a 1.5bn mile run-rate. Lastly, the company noted it is not ruling out the use of LIDAR, but is also not waiting for the price point to decline for it to roll-out its fully autonomous software packages.
Bolding by me.
 
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