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A massive 50 GWh battery factory project planned in Asia for next year
(source: Electrek)

Key points:
  • It costs ~$3 billion and takes several years to build 50 GWh of battery manufacturing capacity.
  • First phase, for only 1 GWh, will be completed in 15 months following the location announcement in 3Q17. Who knows how long, if ever, it will take to complete the rest...
Tesla will enjoy at least 5 years of nearly zero meaningful competition.
 
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Bunch of mistakes/fact twisting to suit the narrative. Quite easy to debunk this kind of stuff.
1. Comparing total sales of 4 Tesla models (Roadster, S,X & 3) to just one Ford Model T.

2. Model T started in 1908, but the plot shows it starting at 1907. If The Tesla plot is lined up with 1908 instead, it will be lower than single Ford model, Model T.
1908 in the United States - Wikipedia


Also here: Model T - Facts & Summary - HISTORY.com

3. Tesla started selling Roadster in 2008. Once you line up the plots with Model T starting in 1908 and Tesla sales starting in 2008, then the story looks completely different. Tesla sales will be seen massively lagging Model T sales. I can't understand why 2011 is shown as the start date for Tesla, then all models are included in the plot.

4. US population back in 1908 was 88.7 M ( US Population: From 1900). But in 2010, it was ~308M. Relatively popularity of Tesla electric cars is still < 1/3rd of Ford Model T.

5. Wait.. there is more. Is the Ford Model T plot for worldwide sales? If we compare to the markets where the Tesla cars are sold vs. where Model T was sold, it may look much much worse for Tesla.
1. Should we start in 1903, then, with Ford sputtering around waiting until they finally built the Model T? Tesla sputtered for a while on the Roadster, after all..Or maybe 1896 when Ford made the Quadricycle, which maybe was a trifle more analogous to the Roadster in the earliest Tesla days.
2. True. The plot should begin in either 1896 or 1903, but not later. It took Henry Ford several tries before he found the Model T and Tesla one extended Roadster evolution prior to Model S.
3. Ture, but not analogous at all. You are now suggesting Tesla starts with the Roadster and Ford with the Model T. It took Henry Ford twelve years to go from Quadricycle to Model T. Once again Roadster is equivalent to Quadricycle, not to Model T.
4. ...and your point is?
 
Tesla Model 3 spotted testing with roof racks

tesla-model-3-roof-rack-e1495656859717.jpg
 
I don't think he was trying to cause harm. He might have Asperger's or other cognitive issues. I think Musk realized that and acted accordingly.
Exactly. I don't think advocating violence against the infirm is a good practice. Now if you're talking about some perpetually anti-Tesla talking heads I might take exception.
 
Between this and the ignition scandal... makes you wonder if tax payers should ever have bailed them out...
There are people wondering about that? The answer is no. Because the taxpayer should never bail out any private company, for any reason.

If a company is going bankrupt, it is because it has been mismanaged, or is selling a product that is inherently unprofitable (which also would constitute mismanagement). There is no such thing as too big to fail. The thousands of people who would have lost their jobs would have found or created other jobs to make use of their skills in a matter of months. People are remarkably resilient, and won't allow themselves to starve for extended periods.
 
There are people wondering about that? The answer is no. Because the taxpayer should never bail out any private company, for any reason.

During ordinary times I'd agree with you. However, GM's bailout during the financial crisis was important. If GM had gone down, it would have been a huge psychological gut punch to everyday Americans. The job losses and psychological impact could have made the crisis much worse. GM management and shareholders certainly didn't deserve the bailout, but it was the best of two bad options.

It may have delayed the inevitable, but at least the job market is stable, if not thriving now. GM going down will just be a part of a more orderly EV disruption.
 
During ordinary times I'd agree with you. However, GM's bailout during the financial crisis was important. If GM had gone down, it would have been a huge psychological gut punch to everyday Americans. The job losses and psychological impact could have made the crisis much worse. GM management and shareholders certainly didn't deserve the bailout, but it was the best of two bad options.

It may have delayed the inevitable, but at least the job market is stable, if not thriving now. GM going down will just be a part of a more orderly EV disruption.

I doubt we'll see eye to eye on this. I don't think it would have made the crisis worse. Propping up a dying company that's been chronically mismanaged just allows that to continue. I believe the economy would have recovered faster and stronger if those people employed by the failing behemoths were forced to find something else productive to do with their time. In general, people won't act to improve their lives until their hand is forced. I'm a perfect example. I make only about 60% of the salary that my skills would garner on the open market, but I like my job, and I have security - I have no impetus to leave and find something better.
 
GM going down would have likely taken out the entire US auto industry. In no way would that have sped up the recovery to have all those people out of work.
You realize people don't just stay out of work for very long, right?

There's a reason that the unemployment rate has historically been fairly static. People find work, or else create it. What I'm suggesting is that that action (people suddenly out of work finding other work or else creating new businesses which can thrive) would have been better than maintaining the status quo, which is what the bailouts did.

Of course, we'll never know what could have happened if things went differently.
 
  • Disagree
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I doubt we'll see eye to eye on this. I don't think it would have made the crisis worse. Propping up a dying company that's been chronically mismanaged just allows that to continue. I believe the economy would have recovered faster and stronger if those people employed by the failing behemoths were forced to find something else productive to do with their time. In general, people won't act to improve their lives until their hand is forced. I'm a perfect example. I make only about 60% of the salary that my skills would garner on the open market, but I like my job, and I have security - I have no impetus to leave and find something better.

It's okay not to eye to eye. It's a good discussion to have :)

I view the bailout as a "shovel-ready" infrastructure spending bill. A true infrastructure bill, one that would have created jobs to stem the crisis, would have taken much longer to implement because of enviro impact reviews and red tape in general. The economic impact would have a long lag time.

The bailout immediately saved 1.5 million jobs. Remember that all the part suppliers would have gone under too, through no fault of their own.
 
The bailout immediately saved 1.5 million jobs. Remember that all the part suppliers would have gone under too, through no fault of their own.

Sure - but what new industries could the collective brainpower of 1.5 million people come up with if they were instead forced to find some other way to continue feeding themselves?

I would argue that those part suppliers would have still been at fault, for scaling up in an unsustainable way to supply a single customer who a) is chronically mismanaged and b) will drop you at the slightest inkling that a cheaper competitor could supply them instead.

Its the same problem that happens with WalMart. WalMart finds some tiny supplier that has a product they want, orders an insane amount of product, so the tiny supplier spends huge investment to improve capacity, because WalMart, and then a year or two down the road, WalMart drops them for a chinese knockoff, and the tiny supplier is left with massive over-capacity they can't afford and dies.
 
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