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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Just FYI, I reached out to Ben Kallo today regarding the Benzinga article.

Me: "An article about your meeting with Tesla management was just published claiming: 'Specifically, management noted that it is on track to produce about 250,000 vehicles by the end of 2017.' (Actionable Trading Ideas, Real Time News, Financial Insight | Benzinga). Can you confirm if this is true?"

Ben Kallo: "No that's not what we wrote. We wrote that production will ramp to that - consistent with what they said before - exiting the year at 5k M3 per week. Thanks for reaching out."

Thanks for going to the source on this, Dave. Nice to confirm as we suspected that Ben Kallo has too solid a track record to make a mistake like that. An inexperienced, junior reporter at Benzinga (shocker!) was the culprit.
 
A different kind of run flat that is essentially a spoked plastic lattice/tire inside the pneumatic casing could do that and help with tire noise.

Current best tires might do it, too.

250px-Rollingstock_axle.jpg
 
CATL 50 GWh by 2020: Chinese battery maker signs massive supply contract with NEVS ahead of build out of new Gigafactory-size plant

One key advantage Tesla has over CATL is that Tesla is vertically integrated whereas CATL needs to partner with car manufacturers.
Key advantages are cost of batteries, quality of batteries, automated high volume pack building, and demand for products using their batteries.

Panasonic builds prismatic cells on their own, but not at the scale required to match the Gigafactory cost reductions because they can't sell that many cells .
 
Very insightful article. This writer is my new hero, after Elon of course.;-)

This is how Big Oil will die – NewCo Shift
I hope he's right.

One reason that I think that the timing of this article might be optimistic is that I believe that it will take longer to scale production of EV's and batteries than it took to produce cell phones.
 
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Key advantages are cost of batteries, quality of batteries, automated high volume pack building, and demand for products using their batteries.

Panasonic builds prismatic cells on their own, but not at the scale required to match the Gigafactory cost reductions because they can't sell that many cells .

What is preventing existing car manufacturers from coming together and striking a deal with Panasonic so build Gigafactories?
 
Key advantages are cost of batteries, quality of batteries, automated high volume pack building, and demand for products using their batteries.

Panasonic builds prismatic cells on their own, but not at the scale required to match the Gigafactory cost reductions because they can't sell that many cells .
This is ironic, because one of the standard questions since forever has been "where are Ford, GM, etc etc going to get the batteries for a huge increase in compliance production EVs?"

OT question: how do people get strikethrough text displayed? I had to use red colouring.

[EDIT] VA beat me to it with his question. My underlying thought is: lack of collective will.
 
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What is preventing existing car manufacturers from coming together and striking a deal with Panasonic so build Gigafactories?

Each wanting a competitive advantage.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel had a pow-wow with CEOs of VW,Daimler Benz and BMW and told them they should share a Gigafactory and the German government would subsidize the venture.

They all said no. Each wants to pursue a course that gives it an advantage over rivals.

All the richer OEMs can build a Gigafactory,supercharger network, ground up BEV platform with mattress battery etc. They insist on not doing it.
 
What is preventing existing car manufacturers from coming together and striking a deal with Panasonic so build Gigafactories?
A few quick thoughts.

Coming together?! First they need to figure out that they are in deep trouble if they don't do something similar, get the huge scale and cost advantages to the Gigafactory. If you listen to the GM employees skepticism about Tesla's prices (when bragging about their high cell prices) they clearly have no idea!

Several other things:
Panasonic developed the technology for large scale cylindrical cell production. Quite a bit of it's the same, but there are differences, so that group or Panasonic would need to fund some additional R and D to produce prismatic cells at a similar scale/cost, or convince other oem's to use small cylindrical cells.

Tesla owns the automated pack building technology, for cylindrical cells. Someone would need to develop similar technology for either prismatic cells or cylindrical cells.
 
Each wanting a competitive advantage.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel had a pow-wow with CEOs of VW,Daimler Benz and BMW and told them they should share a Gigafactory and the German government would subsidize the venture.

They all said no. Each wants to pursue a course that gives it an advantage over rivals.

All the richer OEMs can build a Gigafactory,supercharger network, ground up BEV platform with mattress battery etc. They insist on not doing it.

Sounds like problem they'll have to overcome at some point, but it may be too late. Balance sheets are too levered and margins will decline substantially over the next twelve months.
 
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ATTENTION: This is the third time Elon is referring to tires.

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I know some here disagree, but Tesla may be working on long-range high-performance tires, which would make sense for Tesla Network.

I think there is some ancient law (in the US) that carmakers cannot manufacture tires? But I doubt they would actually make them, but specify them like every other automaker.

What is preventing existing car manufacturers from coming together and striking a deal with Panasonic so build Gigafactories?

yeah, will. They have to decide to invest in battery factories; sending a message to shareholders that all their existing assets are at risk of rapid depreciation. Also why Kodak couldn't convert to digital cameras.
 
It must suck when you end up admitting your existing brand (Volvo) is a negative rather than a positive for an exciting new market segment.

Polestar was an independent tuner that raced Volvos and sold modifications to the public based on their racing efforts.

Then it was purchased by Volvo. Similar to how AMG was an independent company purchased by Mercedes Benz. MB wanted to copy BMW M Division which was always part of BMW.

I don't make fun of Volvo. They seem to be the most serious about transitioning to BEVs. Polestar was purchased in 2015 to be their Halo Product. Now they are saying their halo product will be all BEVs. Or maybe PHEVs too since they say they want to take on BMWs i sub brand. But a major push forward with them also saying there will be no next generation Volvo diesel engines.
 
This makes perfect sense.
Its really the ultimate problem in industries on the verge of disruption.

Even if the management of the incumbents has the wisdom and foresight to see the impending problem and attempt to position for it, their shareholders will demand they continue to push the highly profitable incumbent product to the bitter end, rather than spend money on the initially low-returning new product.

Its exactly what happened to Kodak. Kodak is credited with developing the first digital camera in the 80s. Then they buried it, because film was super profitable and they basically owned the market. Once other groups started coming out with digital cameras, Kodak was too far behind and clinging to the last bastion of film until their death.

Its a remarkably similar story to GM - the EV1 was widely heralded as an excellent EV for its time. GM tried to bury it, and now they're playing catch up trying to keep up with Tesla.
 
Polestar was an independent tuner that raced Volvos and sold modifications to the public based on their racing efforts.

Then it was purchased by Volvo. Similar to how AMG was an independent company purchased by Mercedes Benz. MB wanted to copy BMW M Division which was always part of BMW.

I don't make fun of Volvo. They seem to be the most serious about transitioning to BEVs. Polestar was purchased in 2015 to be their Halo Product. Now they are saying their halo product will be all BEVs. Or maybe PHEVs too since they say they want to take on BMWs i sub brand. But a major push forward with them also saying there will be no next generation Volvo diesel engines.
Unlike BMW's i sub-brand, the Polestar EV's will carry no Volvo branding. That is what I was referring to.
 
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