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erthquake
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I presume this is also an outright purchase and not a PPA, right? If the Model 3 hits the 20k monthly run rate, Q4 could look quite healthy.
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Musk just said they would be on the hook for 50 mill if it doesn't get built under 100 days.
Edit: I guess he could have been talking Australian dollars ~40M US dollars
Early part of exponential ramp.
ValueAnalyst
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There clearly is collusion, but clearly no regulatory body cares and these a-holes get to do whatever they want.
Set up a valuation-based accumulation strategy and take advantage of the dips.
ValueAnalyst
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Where did you get the $250/kWh number? That should be just the battery cost at the pack level. You then have to add inverters, installation, shipping, and so on. For a project this size, $400-500 is probably a better estimate.
Also, this project is more about the news, not the bottom line. This hopefully will open the flood gates for Tesla Energy that market is valuing at nothing more than a few hundred million right now.
Someone said that Elon said they are the hook for $50M if they don't get it installed on time, so that works out to an installed cost of $388/kWh.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I think it's a single big Domino to fall. Just like Domino's the first few fall slower then you get some momentum and they start falling quickly and Branch out in every direction. Each one can be studied by potential customers and used as an example of successful execution. When you are spending 32M or more on a single setup, you want to be sure it's bullet proof.
I think Tesla might end up being Tesla's biggest single customer as Tesla becomes the biggest utility. They need thousands of these micro grid solutions to power superchargers for millions of cars and hundreds of thousands of semis and of course all the factories. This could actually become a pretty big profit center as most vehicles will not have free access. Generate power at 4c/KWh and sell it for 12c/KWh.
Back of the napkin math, 300,000 semis x 1000KWh/day x 250 days per year x 8c margin = $6B in profit. 6 million cars would add another $3B in net profit mind you add the 4c cost covers all the costs for the utility side. Now you have to build the superchargers, but you have to build them anyway. How many utilities have 9B in profits?
With 100,000 MWh of generation and $9B in revenue, Tesla would make this list:
The World's Top 10 Utility Companies
^ That was me. Also, not sure if he was referring to Australian or US dollars.
ValueAnalyst
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That makes sense. Not too shabby imo.
Also, this is likely first of many projects in Australia.
Also, this goes to show no one can match Tesla's low price! That's the news!
According to Tesla slashes price of the Powerpack system by another 10% with new generation, it's $445/kWh.
Each power pack is 100KW, it's about 1000 power packs for 100MW, $50K per pwoer pack, it's about 50 million dollar. Plus inverts, probably 75 million.
We might need another gigafactory soon. Glad to see that GF1 is ramping up very fast! Over 3,000 employee/contractor cars parked there! It is a sight to behold!! Tesla Gigafactory 1: new aerial shot shows lots of activity as it starts Model 3 productionWell there goes the battery cell supply for 1,720 Model 3s with a 75kWh pack.
Also being on the hook for $50M could mean a number of things. Maybe that would be the 'at cost' price to Tesla absent of profit margins.
It was at the start of the presser with Jay Weatherill, and I barely caught it. Hopefully, it gets posted to youtube or something.
Edit: OK just listened to it again courtesy of @Lump.
"$50M or more" was his exact phrase. Don't know if he is talking US or Australian dollars, and/or discarding profit margins.
It was at the start of the presser with Jay Weatherill, and I barely caught it. Hopefully, it gets posted to youtube or something.
Edit: OK just listened to it again courtesy of @Lump.
"$50M or more" was his exact phrase. Don't know if he is talking US or Australian dollars, and/or discarding profit margins.
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Let's help the paid media with some titles for tomorrow:
Here are a few. Pls chime in with your own suggestions.
Elon scraps cars and focuses on just the batteries.
Elon loses hope on cars and the us and pivots towards international markets.
Here is what makes Elon's battery project in Austraila so bad for the stock.
Goldman analyst downgrades tesla and changes price target by $1 dollar citing general disdain for kangaroos.
Don't count your money yet Elon - 5 reasons why Tesla's desperate project in Austraila will take longer than anticipated.
Here are a few. Pls chime in with your own suggestions.
Elon scraps cars and focuses on just the batteries.
Elon loses hope on cars and the us and pivots towards international markets.
Here is what makes Elon's battery project in Austraila so bad for the stock.
Goldman analyst downgrades tesla and changes price target by $1 dollar citing general disdain for kangaroos.
Don't count your money yet Elon - 5 reasons why Tesla's desperate project in Austraila will take longer than anticipated.
Didn't Elon say he would build a rollercoaster for factory employees as a perk? Maybe he'll build the parking lots at the top of those mountains (or hills depending on your perspective) and have a rollercoaster leading down into the factory
ValueAnalyst
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ValueAnalyst
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Elon & Team are already half way to my 4Q17 estimate of 200 MWh for powerpack deployments.
Sometimes they get a little ahead of themselves. This headline literally 1 hr before the battery news.
Tesla’s bad week gets worse as Elon Musk’s credibility takes another hit
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