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MartinAustin
Active Member
Shareholders do not want to hear about a plan that includes a fair risk of not being paid at all for a buttload of Powerpacks! I already thought this through as soon as I read the original tweet.
Elon plans for success... so he started manufacturing the Powerpacks for this project as soon as he issued the ultimatum. So as of today, a good majority of them could already be built. (honestly I have no idea about the speed of manufacture, but you get my point) A shipping plan was probably already ready-to-execute for existing Powerpacks, contingent only on Elon signing the contract in Australia. There are probably a squad of installation engineers and managers already picked out and ready to deploy - perhaps even flying over with Elon for the site inspection.
If Tesla didn't get the contract, well, they have a bunch of Powerpacks ready-to-go for other customers.
If things aren't going well on the Powerpack production line, they could potentially divert Powerpacks already assembled for other customers to the South Australia project. I recall seeing stacks and stacks of them lined up at the GF.
Tesla already handled an international-scale long-distance solar+battery installation perfectly, and understand the logistics of shipping heavy batteries by sea and land to the correct destination. (Kauai... yes, it's still the USA but it is a pretty unusual USA installation... may as well be in another continent)
This is a fine win for Tesla Energy. Was there any mention on the structure of the deal? Is it an outright purchase, some kind of leasing or maybe a PPA? As far as I understood there are tenders out for a few more of these kind of projects in Australia. Anyone has a list?
larmor
Active Member
Analysts unable to compute value of TE as they remove the batteries from their calculators for a competing energy storage bid
Batteries on boats tomorrow. Rate limiting step is installation. Becomes a production line with the end 'step and repeating' in Oz.
Apologies if dupe but don't recall seeing a link here. Video sums up the majority of my bull thesis.
Awareness has not been sufficiently priced in. People have "heard" of Tesla and have seen a few on the road. Driving one is another story.
"I will never buy a car without autopilot. Game changer."
Wait till awareness is raised once 5x the number of Tesla's are on the road by J19 hehehe
Awareness has not been sufficiently priced in. People have "heard" of Tesla and have seen a few on the road. Driving one is another story.
"I will never buy a car without autopilot. Game changer."
Wait till awareness is raised once 5x the number of Tesla's are on the road by J19 hehehe
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mmd
Active Member
Lyon group is also building a 100 MW, 400 MWh storage + solar in South Australia, whether they win the tender or not. Looks like Tesla+Neoen outbid them. Lyon's project was also claimed as world's biggest. If completed, it will be the largest with 200-400 MWh of storage.
Lyon Group announces $1b battery and solar farm for SA
Lyon Group announces $1b battery and solar farm for SA
March 29 2017 said:
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I agree. I revised my ASP estimate for Powerpack to $400/kWh for 25% gross margin.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
For joke of the day, I'd like to share with you this "insightful" analysis by a Tesla bear:
Enjoy.
Enjoy.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Exactly, it's not like per packs are custom built for Kauai vs SA. They are standardized so my guess is that Tesla has been building them since Jan when they started production at the gigafactory. These contracts take months and even years to finalize so the battery packs can be allocated as deals get finalized so production can be connected from contracts. In this case they could have went as far as to procure shipping because someone or many in Australia are going to buy 1000 per packs whatever it's was SA or businesses and utilities in the country. Tesla could have also just built it's own utility, though regulatory issues would have probably delayed that. Hell they could have used them for Supercharger infrastructure with solar panels. I have theorized Tesla could become the biggest utility in the world by just supporting it's own green infrastructure for superchargers and factories.
The risks are high because they have never done this big of a battery, and no one has, as it will be the biggest battery in the world for about a month until Tesla does a bigger one. But once it's done, it's an example of a solution at utility scale that can be replicated 1000 times to drive down costs and I stress costs because utilities will see it as a benefit where as residential solar is actually going to cause them to go out of business at some point if they don't get on board and batteries are a great first step that gets them cost saving benefits right away. Either residents need batteries or utilities or a mix with smart grid solutions. Toss in controls for when cars charge and you can maximize efficiency and minimize curtailment and cost spikes. It's a no brainer but politics can stand in the way. It's good that they didn't stop this SA deal.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Is it possible to produce batteries without Cobalt? Can Tesla be working on a chemistry that doesn't include cobalt?
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
The Australian project uses the same battery format as the model 3 just different chemistry SO.
How many model three base batteries (60) is this equal to?
129000/60 = 2150
This project will eat up enough batteries to equal 2150 model three cars. Coming so shortly after initial production of the model three it may force Tesla to offer the smaller battery (60) with the initial availability of the model three.
IE I was worried that the base model battery would not be available until 2018.
How many model three base batteries (60) is this equal to?
129000/60 = 2150
This project will eat up enough batteries to equal 2150 model three cars. Coming so shortly after initial production of the model three it may force Tesla to offer the smaller battery (60) with the initial availability of the model three.
IE I was worried that the base model battery would not be available until 2018.
Sure... LiFePO4, a favorite of Chinese manufacturers. Also used by A123 and put into the Fisker Karma as well as BYDand used, for example, in the e6. Not a competitive automotive chemistry due to low specific energy, but could be price competitive for stationary storage. Theoretically, the long cycle life should make it price competitive. Hasn’t really worked out that way.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Thank you. This somewhat eases my concern about increasing Cobalt prices. I wonder if a new chemistry will be one of the Gigafactory-related news later this year.
It would be a smart strategic move to diversify chemistries to protect against price surges in any specific metal.
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ValueAnalyst
Closed
I expect the base model to have ~55 kWh due to the smaller size of Model 3 and higher efficiency of newer powertrain.
Also see this: Tesla confirms base Model 3 will have less than 60 kWh battery pack option, cost is below $190/kWh and falling
I also expect the majority of Model 3/Y's to include the smallest batteries.
Yes. Nano One, a Canadian cathode/battery technology company has developed a high voltage, high capacity cathode material that uses no cobalt. Nano One Highlights High-Voltage Cobalt-Free Battery Material
"The material, known as high voltage spinel, has cost advantages because it contains no cobalt and has 4.7-volt potential, which is 30%-45% higher voltage than commercial cells found in hand-held devices and electric vehicle batteries."
ValueAnalyst
Closed
This is perfect. Thank you.
The following is also important: "measured up to 50% more energy at high rates of discharge."
Bangor Bob
Member
At higher voltages, electrolyte breakdown and side-reactions start to become a problem, affecting cycle life.
Fortunately, that's Dr. Dahn's specialty.
Fortunately, that's Dr. Dahn's specialty.
DurandalAI
Member
I would expect economies of scale to apply to PowerPacks versus PowerWall. If I can get a PowerWall for $392/kWh, I wouldn't expect PowerPack to cost more per kWh, worst case, the same amount.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
How did you calculate $392/kWh for Powerwall?! Please include "$800 to $2,000" of installation cost in your calculation. My estimate using one Powerwall 2 is $500/kWh to $585/kWh ($5,500 + $700 hardware + $800 to $2,000 installation for 14 kWh). See this: Tesla Powerwall
Also, you're assuming Tesla will price Powerpack with the same gross margin as Powerwall. It seems to me that Tesla is facing more competition on the Powerwall side than Powerpack due its scale advantage with the latter. So Powerpack may command a higher margin than Powerwall.
Given Tesla's capacity limitation, I expect Tesla to use gross profits from the Powerpack business with "super-exponential growth" to fund future Gigafactories for the foreseeable future. Note that Tesla can now produce battery packs at Gigafactory 1 at a cost lower than $140/kWh so its gross margin with Powerpacks, if priced at ~$500/kWh, may be much higher than my estimate of 30%.
All of this reinforces my prediction that Tesla will not need another equity secondary.
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