2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Quassinoid]

Just re-watched the Model 3 unveiling from March 31st, 2016. In that video, Elon promised delivery of the M3 by the END of 2017. The fact that the first production Model 3s will become available by July 31st, 2017, five months ahead of already aggressive timelines, is nothing short of a miracle in the auto industry. While big investors may be ignoring this fact, focusing instead on other items like the MS crash rating and quarterly deliveries, they can't ignore this for too long. The MS crash ratings can be fixed and 2nd half numbers will be better (Tesla guidance). However, missing the launch date for the most important vehicle in the company's history can't be undone. It's these types of big deliveries, together with EM's grand vision for transition to sustainable energy (look at all the disruption this has generated in the auto industry), that make me take a long view on Tesla.

 

[Intl Professor]

So crazy question, but where is the parking in the final version?


i

Now don't be boring in your answer.

 

[mmd]

I made a post here back on December 2nd of 2016 and March 10th of 2017. I never post on here, but my first post on December 2 was due to the EXTREME negativity we were seeing, same with my re-post of that message on March 10 - EXTREME negativity. Coincidentally, the post on December 2 was the $180 low and the post on March 10 was the low of the correction the occurred after the run to $280.

Well...I'm here again...feel free to check my posting history for verification...but please...read below:

Longtime viewer of this forum (and others like it) chiming in here. Loving the extreme negativity that I've been seeing lately on here and just about everywhere else you could possibly look. Been following Tesla for almost a decade and I have to say, I don't think it has ever been like this in awhile.

I just want to extend my thanks to those who short the stock...

We wouldn't be here without you. You've funded this company's growth and I look forward to the future that you have helped create. Without the short squeezes that you perpetuated, that our wonderful CEO took advantage of, we wouldn't be here. Those billions of dollars of capital raises, at high share prices, that you helped support through your convictions against Tesla, provided the foundation for a company that will change the world over the next 20 years.

Without your bouts of panic, from $30 to $190, from $120 to $260, from $175 to $290, from $185 to $280, and from $135 to $270, Tesla would have billions of dollars less to build and fund their new production lines. Thank you for donating those funds to the cause.

As we stand now, with more than 30 million shares sold short, I thank you for once again proving that the market demand for shares of TSLA is far greater than the natural supply.

Sincerely,
A 6-Year Long Shareholder

You might have called the bottom twice (and I hope now too), but you have no understanding of the role of short selling. So most of your post reads like emotional gibberish. Here is a basic primer for you.
Short Selling: Ethics And The Role Of Short Selling

While short selling is monitored closely, no one cares to check the manipulstions, rumors , misinformation and rosy outlooks spread by the longs, which often cause more damage than short selling. Just read few of our esteemed poster ValueAnalyst's posts as classic examples of stock pumping on the long side. I bet some people fell for those projections. Some unethical companies even raise capital on the back of rumors spread by themselves or other longs, burning the buy and hold investors.

Your thesis based on logic and math is like a two legged stool. You need to add the third leg, fact (reality), to make it sound

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Just re-watched the Model 3 unveiling from March 31st, 2016. In that video, Elon promised delivery of the M3 by the END of 2017. The fact that the first production Model 3s will become available by July 31st, 2017, five months ahead of already aggressive timelines, is nothing short of a miracle in the auto industry. While big investors may be ignoring this fact, focusing instead on other items like the MS crash rating and quarterly deliveries, they can't ignore this for too long. The MS crash ratings can be fixed and 2nd half numbers will be better (Tesla guidance). However, missing the launch date for the most important vehicle in the company's history can't be undone. It's these types of big deliveries, together with EM's grand vision for transition to sustainable energy (look at all the disruption this has generated in the auto industry), that make me take a long view on Tesla.

I think someone yesterday threw out the idea that a big institutional investor may be unloading, which is complete speculation. It may be true or may not be true (I don't think it's true), but I see this *prediction* getting closer and closer to a *fact* every time it gets mentioned...

 

[EinSV]

In the sea of negative news today Gene Munster came out with a new report strongly backing Tesla.

The longtime Apple analyst predicted the launch of the Model 3 would be comparable to introduction of the iPhone.

GENE MUNSTER: Tesla's Model 3 launch will be as big as the introduction of the iPhone

Research | Loup Ventures

"Over the next 10 years, the Model 3's value, in combination with its technology, has the potential to change the world and accelerate the adoption of electric and autonomous vehicles," Munster wrote. "We believe we will eventually look back at the launch of the Model 3 and compare it to the iPhone, which proved to be the catalyst for the shift to mobile computing."​

He also thinks the Model 3 market is much bigger than most people expect due to a true-cost-to-own that is competitive with cars like the Toyota Camry:

"Consensus thinking is the Model 3 expanded Tesla's addressable market from about 1 million cars a year to 4 million cars a year," he wrote. "However, based on our cost of ownership work, we believe the Model 3 expands Tesla's addressable market to about 11m vehicles per year in North America alone."​

Gene was a rockstar analyst who recently formed a venture fund focused on AI, augmented reality and robotics.

He has a five star rating and ranks a stellar 21 out of 4592 analysts on Tipranks (99.5th percentile)
https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/gene-munster

 

[snellenr]

Another way to look at this IIHS mess .. My understanding is that Tesla came in 3rd in the one test (offset test) and first in the rest. This one test is responsible for 25% of injuries to drivers per IIHS. So worst case, Tesla is the safest car 75% of the time and only the 3rd safest car the other 25% of the time, making it almost impossible for another car to be more safe in the real world. Its not like you are 100% guaranteed to die because you came in 3rd out of hundreds of brands/models? I am also sure that your likely hood of being injured in the other situation isn't just marginally better then the competition, but dramatically. Like the guy who went off the road down a 300ft embankment.

So the Model S is still the safest car in the world.

A Tesla announcement from my head:

"Tesla believes in making our cars as safe as possible. Therefore we are announcing an enhancement to our existing Automatic Emergency Braking feature. In the event of an unavoidable collision, automatic braking will now be accompanied by automatic steering that will shift the point of impact to the center of the front bumper.

This returns the Tesla Model S to its position as the safest car in the world, as well as now being the most accurate."

 

[Starno]

Be strong guys

 

[Reciprocity]

In the sea of negative news today Gene Munster came out with a new report strongly backing Tesla.

The longtime Apple analyst predicted the launch of the Model 3 would be comparable to introduction of the iPhone.

GENE MUNSTER: Tesla's Model 3 launch will be as big as the introduction of the iPhone

Research | Loup Ventures

"Over the next 10 years, the Model 3's value, in combination with its technology, has the potential to change the world and accelerate the adoption of electric and autonomous vehicles," Munster wrote. "We believe we will eventually look back at the launch of the Model 3 and compare it to the iPhone, which proved to be the catalyst for the shift to mobile computing."​

He also thinks the Model 3 market is much bigger than most people expect due to a true-cost-to-own that is competitive with cars like the Toyota Camry:

"Consensus thinking is the Model 3 expanded Tesla's addressable market from about 1 million cars a year to 4 million cars a year," he wrote. "However, based on our cost of ownership work, we believe the Model 3 expands Tesla's addressable market to about 11m vehicles per year in North America alone."​

Gene was a rockstar analyst who recently formed a venture fund focused on AI, augmented reality and robotics.

He has a five star rating and ranks a stellar 21 out of 4592 on Tipranks (99.5th percentile)
https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/gene-munster

Man, I missed my calling. I have been saying model 3 is comparable to Camry in terms of TCO for months. So I certainly agree. One thing Gene and other analyst havn't caught onto yet is that EV sales will lead to solar sales. I think this is missed because the traditional EV owner already has solar or already wants solar. The typical model 3 owner Will be more like the average car owner and solar will be a new discovery for them. When people convert from gas based transport to electricity based, they will get a sticker shock from the electric bill. It will be cheaper then gas but it will make them think about ways to save on electricity.

Not all will buy Tesla solar and batteries but many will have a new brand affinity because they love the car so much.

When you add solar to the TCO equation, it makes the base model 3 competitive with cars in the sub $20,000 range and lower if you keep your car 10 years. Good thing they are making million mile drive units and batteries.

 

[Curt Renz]

This free advertising is from Fox News of all places:

 

[ValueAnalyst]

This free advertising is from Fox News of all places:

There has been a slew of positive coverage of the Model 3 in the last 48 hours leading up to tomorrow's SN1.

 

[neroden]

Honestly, stories about that along with some other accessory failures are among the reasons I haven't sprung on a used Model S versus waiting for the Model 3. At least with the Model 3, I can be reasonably assured that replacement parts will be substantially cheaper than on the Model S.

FWIW the accessory failures were generally from the "first generation" parts. I've had practically all of them replaced (most of them at the first annual service) and haven't had any problems with the replacement parts.

 

[neroden]

So crazy question, but where is the parking in the final version?

Yeah, I think it's about time for them to build a railway shuttle from this factory to downtown Reno (which has gobs of parking).

 

[neroden]

The MS crash ratings can be fixed

If it's about the damn *seatbelt tightness* it can probably be fixed with a retrofit to *existing cars*.

 

[neroden]

In the sea of negative news today Gene Munster came out with a new report strongly backing Tesla.

The longtime Apple analyst predicted the launch of the Model 3 would be comparable to introduction of the iPhone.

GENE MUNSTER: Tesla's Model 3 launch will be as big as the introduction of the iPhone

Research | Loup Ventures

"Over the next 10 years, the Model 3's value, in combination with its technology, has the potential to change the world and accelerate the adoption of electric and autonomous vehicles," Munster wrote. "We believe we will eventually look back at the launch of the Model 3 and compare it to the iPhone, which proved to be the catalyst for the shift to mobile computing."​

He also thinks the Model 3 market is much bigger than most people expect due to a true-cost-to-own that is competitive with cars like the Toyota Camry:

"Consensus thinking is the Model 3 expanded Tesla's addressable market from about 1 million cars a year to 4 million cars a year," he wrote. "However, based on our cost of ownership work, we believe the Model 3 expands Tesla's addressable market to about 11m vehicles per year in North America alone."​

Gene was a rockstar analyst who recently formed a venture fund focused on AI, augmented reality and robotics.

He has a five star rating and ranks a stellar 21 out of 4592 analysts on Tipranks (99.5th percentile)
https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/gene-munster

Well, that explains why his analysis actually makes sense! He's right about the addressable market. (Tesla obviously can't produce enough cars fast enough to take even half that market, but that is the correct addressable market.)

 

[anticitizen13.7]

The amount of negative press and troll attacks has me feeling confident.

People who are sure of themselves don't need to resort to poorly written sensationalism and trolling. I can smell their fear, LOL.

 

[Fallenone]

The amount of negative press and troll attacks has me feeling confident.

People who are sure of themselves don't need to resort to poorly written sensationalism and trolling. I can smell their fear, LOL.

I'm on another forum where a TSLA permabear lurks and comes out whenever stock price falls hard and starts bashing. He did it around 180 in 2014, 180 in 2015, waited till it was below 160 in 2016 and really had a good time for a few days. He came out today again.

 

[EinSV]

Well, that explains why his analysis actually makes sense! He's right about the addressable market. (Tesla obviously can't produce enough cars fast enough to take even half that market, but that is the correct addressable market.)

He estimates $105 billion in revenue in 2025 based solely on Model 3 capturing 25% of this market (which I believe is N. America only.). He also predicts 15% operating margin.

Now add Model Y, Pickup, TE, TN, Semi, Roadster ....

 

[MitchJi]

Another forward looking oem execution:
Toyota's CEO Just Revealed Why He's Not Losing Sleep Over Tesla's Model 3

Toyota's CEO Just Revealed Why He's Not Losing Sleep Over Tesla's Model 3
Scott Gamm
Jul 6, 2017 9:30 PM EDT
Listen up, Elon Musk.

Toyota Motor (TM) North America CEO Jim Lentz isn't worried about Tesla's (TSLA) low cost electric car, the Model 3.

"At gas at less than $2 a gallon, no [I'm not worried]," Lentz said in an interview with TheStreet. "I think [the Model 3] is going to be great but today less than half of one percent of the industry are pure electric vehicles."

Lentz is also fond of Volvo's move to compete with Tesla and offer an electric version on its portfolio of cars.

"I think it's a good move on their part," Lentz added. "I think [Volvo] sells about 100,000 [vehicles] here in the U.S, - we sell about 2.5 million here in the U.S. When you have a much smaller portfolio of product, it allows you to concentrate in a much smaller niche of the marketplace.."

Maybe he should think about the Prius.

We can thank him and his cohorts for helping our portfolios, and for their contribution towards making the planet uninhabitable for our grandchildren.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

He estimates $105 billion in revenue in 2025 based solely on Model 3 capturing 25% of this market (which I believe is N. America only.). He also predicts 15% operating margin.

Now add Model Y, Pickup, TE, TN, Semi, Model S/X, Roadster ....

I had estimated Model 3 revenue at $120B in 2025 and 25% gross margin but 11% operating margin, so slightly more optimistic on revenue, but more pessimistic on margin than Gene. Same ballpark though.

 

[neroden]

Dumbass Toyota exec. He hasn't bothered to calculate gas v. electric prices...
$2/gallon / 25 mpg = 8 cents / mile.
12 cents / kwh * .380 kwh/mile (Model X) = 4.6 cents / mile.
Gas isn't cheap. If gas were $1/gallon then maybe he wouldn't have to worry.