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According to this post, VIN 318 was spotted yesterday:
Model 3 Interior pics posted on Jim Roger Johansen • r/teslamotors
More pics:
Model 3 Interior by Waldek Kubicki and Jim Roger Johansen on FB
Man, 318 cars built and just one customer who happens to be CEO of the company which built these cars??
If this does not scream "demand problem" I do not know what does...
Do you have a link to the more current interview? Or maybe I missed the freebie... couldn't find it...
Nothing useful about tesla in the video. Damodaran thinks Elon is a big vision guy and doesn't think about small details like supply chain, etc. That could not be farther from truth. I respect him for what he does, but dude has done no due diligence on Tesla.
He did a lot if it on AMZN and now argues it's fairly valued. He'll probably say the same thing about TSLA when it hits 2000 after the model Y and semi are in full production early next decade.
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
This is possibly the most informative post in Howard's thread. Not that the information in the thousands of words the responders wrote in reply was wrong; in fact we're all pretty sure it's spot on. But it's stuff we all already know. Big S/N hit this week :-( Sure would be nice to get some troll discipline.
howardoark
Member
I did promise to get back to this, but it is somewhat like reading Finnegan's Wake (not that I got through the first five pages). I think the first paragraph has something to do with my user name. In the second paragraph we diverge in temperament since I think the stock market is a casino and he thinks it's more than that. And of course he's right; there is skill involved. Then he suggests that, since I'm bearish on TSLA, I should wager my life savings on deep, in-the-money puts on TSLA (because he's been drinking and his greater moral sense is on holiday). I don't know who the great men of the 19th floor are - Bernie Madoff's stock trading group was on the 19th floor of the Lipstick Building in NYC, but that doesn't seem right. He has a home in Coral Cables so he probably was hearing katydids (Katydid Bug Facts ) . Then he suggests (once again, I don't think he is offering me his sincere best advice) that I rapidly put my life savings on the line backing up my thesis on TSLA. "Best wishes in your leisure" sounds like something SJ Perlman might have written to EB White (or one of those WWI poems written by a guy subsequently blown to bits by German artillery, or potentially how Romans ended their letters to their friends), but Googling turns up nothing. Make haste quickly sounds like Lewis Carroll, but is actually Euripides and I think just filler. He later explained, because it was unclear that I am not an Ayn Rand fan, that Dorthy Parker didn't like Ayn Rand and my user name is pretty close to Howard Roark (architect) which might lead you to think I followed that crap if you didn't notice the missing R. I suspect, but don't know, that he's comparing me to Sauron (or potentially Morgoth) by reading Lord of the Rings (although that could just be ego on my part and he's comparing me to Gollum (raw fishes my precious). Given the above, his good wishes are abundantly clear. Gopher it is probably short for "Go for it." which probably harks back to some East Coast school gentlemen of the leisure class attended in the 50s (Duke maybe?) and is, once again I think insincere advice that I take the other side of his bet (I mean position).
howardoark
Member
what are you guys saying? No one wants a Bolt because BEV's are the wave of the future?
One of my neighbors has reserved a TM3 which they tell him he'll get in February 2018. I asked him if he'd test driven a Bolt and he said no - he had tried the BMW i3 and didn't like it. He thought the differentiator was the Tesla charging network. So, that's a point for the longs, the charging network is a huge differentiator.
Ladies and gentlemen...and trolls. Some Tesla porn for your viewing enjoyment. Usually I don't condone or distribute salacious material like this, but in honor of our Ayn Randian lurker (represented in this video by the poor, robust soul who cries foul and manufactures excuses, only to get whooped again), here is a representation of the future:
Oh, @howardoark, our objectivist interloper...
100 years of internal combustion evolution at its peak vs. 5 years of an infant electric technology poised to replace it in the next decade. As Elon just said....place your bets accordingly.
Watch a Tesla smoke custom street racing cars while their owners get upset
Cheers
Oh, @howardoark, our objectivist interloper...
100 years of internal combustion evolution at its peak vs. 5 years of an infant electric technology poised to replace it in the next decade. As Elon just said....place your bets accordingly.
Watch a Tesla smoke custom street racing cars while their owners get upset
Cheers
The lack of due diligence astounded me for a while, but I think I am starting to put it together.
I don't know if you remember how Jobs would get applause for features that had been around for a while.
Elon will sometimes do the same thing (talk to his audience with a presumption of something).
For example, when he first talked about the speed improvements he would make to the production line, it seemed clear that he had never seen the River Rouge Model T line run. If he had, he would never say such a thing about room for improvement in production rate.
The guy is well read. He, of course, knows about the River Rouge plant and Ford's book, Today and Tommorrow.
But his words, as if to children, don't show that.
I think these analysts judge Musk on what he has said, in sound bites, rather than on what he has done.
A lot of the dicotimy on Tesla is based on differences in the listener's lens.
Visual folks, like that guy's wife who saw an early RC and immediately said, "They are going to sell a lot of those."
And audio listener folks who only see sound bites, sometimes bragging about something they see as not differentiated - "just another car."
So, yeah, due diligence is not happening. And it is not all Elon's fault.
Will you at least pay attention?! The Bolt isn't selling well, because it's got the features of a focus RS (speed oriented econo-hatch) and being marketed against a BMW 3-series competitor, instead of being dressed up and marketed as an Audi A3 competitor. This is entirely GM's fault and has nothing to do with it being an EV.
I don't approve of street racing but this kid is doing Tesla a favor with some grassroots marketing.Ladies and gentlemen...and trolls. Some Tesla porn for your viewing enjoyment. Usually I don't condone or distribute salacious material like this, but in honor of our Ayn Randian lurker (represented in this video by the poor, robust soul who cries foul and manufactures excuses, only to get whooped again), here is a representation of the future:
Oh, @howardoark, our objectivist interloper...
100 years of internal combustion evolution at its peak vs. 5 years of an infant electric technology poised to replace it in the next decade. As Elon just said....place your bets accordingly.
Watch a Tesla smoke custom street racing cars while their owners get upset
Cheers
howardoark
Member
I'm about done here since I came to get the other side of the story and I think I have gotten it loud and clear. It isn't as bleak as I thought it was for Tesla and if Tesla does all the things the Tesla fans think it will do the world will be a much better place and I'll have made some chump change. But really, ya'll have missed the point.
"Not going to address this one, but everyone else's sake, what probability are we talking about here? 1%, 5%, or 20%? " The overwhelming opinion of the longs on this board is that Coach Ditka (I mean CEO Musk) can't miss. The Mighty Casey can't strike out. The Yankees, having the Red Sox down 0-3, can't lose. The Warriors are a lock (in 2016). It doesn't work that way. Tesla can miss. And for a stock priced for perfection, missing is a catastrophe. Say it's 1%. How hedged are you?
A significant market developing for BEVs is not a sure thing, - ok, ignore the Bolt. A significant market developing for BEVs is not a sure thing, If the public isn't interested in BEVs, TSLA is screwed. Maybe the public not being interested in Bolt doesn't mean it won't be interested in the TM3. But maybe that's exactly what it means. TSLA longs ascribe a 0% chance this will happen.
Tesla being unable to achieve high production rates with a high quality product - it has nothing to do with the S or X, it has to do with going from producing 2,000 $100,000 cars a week to 10,000 $35,000 cars a week. It is madness to think that being not really good at the former will make you great at the latter. Sure, maybe they can pull it off. I'm not betting that way. If they can't pull it off, and really, there's very little chance they can, TSLA will be in the mid 200s by October.
If you consider any PHEV "significant competition", then you haven't driven a Tesla before. Ok, I haven't driven a Tesla - and actually I haven't ever driven a PHEV or an HEV. I most bicycle to work (I need the exercise and it's faster than driving). What difference does that make? How many people buy cars based on getting to 60 mph in under 3 seconds? But suppose the TM3 is the perfect car (but not so perfect as to cannibalize Model S sales) How long will it take Toyota, Honda and Ford to have something equally good on the road for less money? That's how capitalism works. And don't hand me that crap that nobody can build battery factories fast enough to keep up with demand.
Tesla needing to raise billions of dollars in capital is a dead certainty (perhaps they can borrow it). They won't be able to borrow it at rates that won't get them a "going concern" letter from their auditor. Musk is right that they need to go big or go home and the only way they're going to get big is to raise a lot of capital and that means dilution - significant dilution. If the economy slows down about the same time that Tesla needs to be rolling over its $7 billion in debt, TSLA shareholders will be left holding the bag (which is what bag holders are good for).
Although the "need" isn't established yet, they probably will. Because that capital will be spent to expand their market, not keep the lights on (that's what gross margins are for). Sure, if you can get a 2% return on investment and borrow at 1%, you should borrow every penny the banking system will throw your way. But, so far, that's not what Tesla has done. They've borrowed money at positive interest rates and lost money on the things they've bought with that money. Maybe they can turn that around by borrowing more money (to fund the Y, pickup truck, cargo airplane, etc) and hopefully reaching a critical mass where their returns on investment exceed their cost of capital. But maybe they can't. No one here ascribes a chance greater than zero to TSLA not making it (once again, just because the shareholders get wiped out, doesn't mean you won't be able to buy a 2025 Tesla Model K - you'll just be sending your payments to Goldman Sachs.
"Not going to address this one, but everyone else's sake, what probability are we talking about here? 1%, 5%, or 20%? " The overwhelming opinion of the longs on this board is that Coach Ditka (I mean CEO Musk) can't miss. The Mighty Casey can't strike out. The Yankees, having the Red Sox down 0-3, can't lose. The Warriors are a lock (in 2016). It doesn't work that way. Tesla can miss. And for a stock priced for perfection, missing is a catastrophe. Say it's 1%. How hedged are you?
A significant market developing for BEVs is not a sure thing, - ok, ignore the Bolt. A significant market developing for BEVs is not a sure thing, If the public isn't interested in BEVs, TSLA is screwed. Maybe the public not being interested in Bolt doesn't mean it won't be interested in the TM3. But maybe that's exactly what it means. TSLA longs ascribe a 0% chance this will happen.
Tesla being unable to achieve high production rates with a high quality product - it has nothing to do with the S or X, it has to do with going from producing 2,000 $100,000 cars a week to 10,000 $35,000 cars a week. It is madness to think that being not really good at the former will make you great at the latter. Sure, maybe they can pull it off. I'm not betting that way. If they can't pull it off, and really, there's very little chance they can, TSLA will be in the mid 200s by October.
If you consider any PHEV "significant competition", then you haven't driven a Tesla before. Ok, I haven't driven a Tesla - and actually I haven't ever driven a PHEV or an HEV. I most bicycle to work (I need the exercise and it's faster than driving). What difference does that make? How many people buy cars based on getting to 60 mph in under 3 seconds? But suppose the TM3 is the perfect car (but not so perfect as to cannibalize Model S sales) How long will it take Toyota, Honda and Ford to have something equally good on the road for less money? That's how capitalism works. And don't hand me that crap that nobody can build battery factories fast enough to keep up with demand.
Tesla needing to raise billions of dollars in capital is a dead certainty (perhaps they can borrow it). They won't be able to borrow it at rates that won't get them a "going concern" letter from their auditor. Musk is right that they need to go big or go home and the only way they're going to get big is to raise a lot of capital and that means dilution - significant dilution. If the economy slows down about the same time that Tesla needs to be rolling over its $7 billion in debt, TSLA shareholders will be left holding the bag (which is what bag holders are good for).
Although the "need" isn't established yet, they probably will. Because that capital will be spent to expand their market, not keep the lights on (that's what gross margins are for). Sure, if you can get a 2% return on investment and borrow at 1%, you should borrow every penny the banking system will throw your way. But, so far, that's not what Tesla has done. They've borrowed money at positive interest rates and lost money on the things they've bought with that money. Maybe they can turn that around by borrowing more money (to fund the Y, pickup truck, cargo airplane, etc) and hopefully reaching a critical mass where their returns on investment exceed their cost of capital. But maybe they can't. No one here ascribes a chance greater than zero to TSLA not making it (once again, just because the shareholders get wiped out, doesn't mean you won't be able to buy a 2025 Tesla Model K - you'll just be sending your payments to Goldman Sachs.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
That's good, because pretty much everything you write is wrong.
Anyone else concerned by the lack of solar roof installations for Tesla + Peter Rive's departure? I have no reason to believe they are related, but it's nothing to be happy about. This YouTuber has a pretty strong understanding of Tesla, worth a watch!
I expected both Rives to depart after the acquisition. I agree with the video that maybe Elon wasn't pleased with how SolarCity's business was being run. Speculation on the solar roof being late, we won't know until Aug. 2. I expect Tesla to start providing more insight into the growth of TE (solar and storage). "Growing as fast as humanly possible" isn't going to cut it. They are probably trying to run the business as lean as possible. The growth potential is still there. I am not concerned at this point. I will be annoyed if we get no real info from Aug. 2. Tesla's communication to customers (and outside world in general) still needs a bit of work. I think it's a product of how fast they operate and sometimes pivot. They need some sort of agile communations strategy to go with their agile operations.
PaulRocket
Member
Nico Rosberg on Twitter
Anyone want to guess what Nico Rosberg, F1 2016 champion had to do at Tesla?
Anyone want to guess what Nico Rosberg, F1 2016 champion had to do at Tesla?
Ok, I haven't driven a Tesla - and actually I haven't ever driven a PHEV or an HEV. I most bicycle to work (I need the exercise and it's faster than driving). What difference does that make?
- All the difference in the world. If you don't "get" why one product is better than another, then you have no basis for judging the risk of a product failure. It's like a deaf person judging that the first iphone was too risky of a product, because it cost more to make and sell than the palm Treo, AND Apple had never made a phone before whereas palm had already sold millions! I'm not comparing TSLA to AAPL, but the product analogy is pretty spot-on.
As others have pointed out. All your risks and worries have been addressed before and aren't new info. TSLA might drop some more tomorrow and all through next week, and your profits might grow, but only because the stock is trading at a premium and traders are using it to profit from the volatility. But I assure you that any stock price changes will not be a result of ANY of the issues you've brought up.
And I'm one of the more conservative bulls here! I have a core holding of stock and a separate trading set that I trade around, buying more when I think it's oversold, and selling some to lock in the profits. Many of us have no illusions about the possibility of TSLA dropping, but we keep a pretty sharp eye on changing competitive landscape and post it here for everyone's discussion.
And in case it hasn't been drilled in enough. The model 3 competitive threat will only have a chance of becoming real, when someone other than Tesla builds a huge cell factory, because LG Chem has talked a big game without bringing the goods - read illuminati's comment: Fisker unveils a few more details about its new electric car: batteries from LG, dual cameras in mirrors, & more
16 manufacturers (including GM and VW) are planning to bring in their "tesla-killers" in 2019, but they're all relying on a company who produces less than one-fourth of what Tesla currently uses from Panasonic. And to pre-empt the BYD angle, they produce LiFePo batteries for their own consumption only AND is incompatible with what the other car companies need - research this on your own so you can fully appreciate how far ahead Tesla truly is.
larmor
Active Member
Suspension tuning for upcoming roadster--surprise...
It's ok to trade around black swan events, but your trades have to use the right instrument e.g. Very cheap far out of the money puts.
Plain shorting with unlimited potential loss is not the right instrument.
Some of the early RCs were a bit under damped.
The the last videos showed much better - it looked corrected.
Maybe he finished that off on the Model 3?
Maybe the FIA (the governing organization for motorsport) wants to have Tesla join Formula E... I know, I know distraction and all, but you gotta admit it would be cool.
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