Definitely trying to walk a fine line between revealing the 3, and still supporting the S,X
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Tesla's Supercharger Team was recently laid off. We discuss what this means for the company on today's TMC Podcast streaming live at 1PM PDT. You can watch on X or on YouTube where you can participate in the live chat.
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bdy0627
Active Member
He said they were hoping to hit 10,000 M3 production per week by the end of next year. Sounds like a goal, not necessarily an expectation.
Drumheller
Active Member
I'm going to guess that the stock is going to drop on Monday. The event was underwhelming.
It really feels like Tesla doesn't want to sell the Model 3, even though it's a good car. I understand they've been anti-selling, but it seems like they're taking it so far as to make me wonder if there are demand issues for the S and X.
It really feels like Tesla doesn't want to sell the Model 3, even though it's a good car. I understand they've been anti-selling, but it seems like they're taking it so far as to make me wonder if there are demand issues for the S and X.
bdy0627
Active Member
Gotta say, I was disappointed overall in the event. Anyone else feel that way?
ValueAnalyst
Closed
EAP/FSD prices unchanged from what I can tell so up to $10k for FSD incl. delivery.
With base prices at $35k and $44k plus $10k for FSD alone but also other options, it's hard to imagine ASP being lower than $45k.
With base prices at $35k and $44k plus $10k for FSD alone but also other options, it's hard to imagine ASP being lower than $45k.
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bdy0627
Active Member
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I couldn't disagree more with this post. I don't know what SP will do on Monday, and I couldn't care less. The fact that this product at a higher ASP than expected is sold out for 18 months without any advertising or test drives, and now is hitting the road, is astonishing on its own. 500k cars in 2018 should lead to strong SP performance in the longer term.
Note that Elon also showed a chart showing close to 3,500-4,000/week production for November, which I think is higher than many expected.
Electrek has option prices here
Tesla Model 3 production specs revealed: up to 310 miles range, 140 mph top speed, and more
Tesla Model 3 production specs revealed: up to 310 miles range, 140 mph top speed, and more
bdy0627
Active Member
Yeah, kinda still feels like they are anti-selling the M3. I guess that will be the case for another 6 to 9 months during this ramp.
Drumheller
Active Member
He mentioned that 50 were produced so far in July.
The impression I got from this event was poor. I think it will be fine, but it almost feels like they are in a bit over their heads. Maybe it is costing them more than they planned and margins aren't quite where they want them to be, yet. I still think it's a huge step forward and will work out well for Tesla, but the next year might be hard on them.
And yes, bring on the disagrees.
Drumheller
Active Member
Also, the guys in the pre-show said we'd learn about more details / "secret levels" of the referral program. I guess that will be in the future.
EAP 5K, FSD 3K, Premium upgrade 5K, paint upgrade 1K and bigger wheels 1.5K
I would estimate ASP north of 50k until the base model comes out
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total agree. I think the 310 miles for $44k is going to outsell the $35k version, at least in the US. I wouldn't be surprised if ASP is closer to $50k for the first two years.
if the stock drops I plan on accumulating more. this is a huge de-risking event even if the next 3-6 months are rocky. $500m in deposits and continued guidance on 20k / month production sometime in next 6 to 9 months.
if the ASP next year is $50k with 300k deliveries + $90k for the S+X with 100k deliveries that puts revenue at $24B in 2018. No way that is baked into a $55B market cap.
Now this reminds me of 2012 when the company was trading at just a few billion in market cap AFTER the S had launched.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Thanks for posting this... great info!
3549 to 3814 lbs. is about what I expected in terms of weight. Tesla also kept the more expensive suspension setups used in S and X: double wishbone in front and multilink in rear. Most cars use simpler struts in front, and economy cars use torsion beams in back.
Overall I think Tesla did a good job in base model features.
It's funny - with all the talk in the aftermath of the initial event there was tons of hype about a "mindblowing" second reveal, super next level, will be tons of reservations afterwards, etc. Instead, we get about the lowest key event ever.
What happened?
2 things I think: Model X and insane demand beyond their expectations. The first event was in the throes of Model X production hell and it soon became apparent that new features should be in later versions of new cars to help the ramp. Thus, no spaceship interior, HUD, etc.
The 3 demand was also crazy even with the minimal reveal. Reality set in that it made no sense to push sales on this car as it will sell itself. As Elon always says, what's the point in selling 2019 and 2020 production slots for the 3 now? All that does is delay an interested buyer's purchase for a couple years when they could instead get in a CPO S/X or step up to a new one.
Hence the S/X campaign and the constant talking down of the 3. Demand is never going to be a problem for Tesla, production is. When you have limited production capacity you talk up the high margin cars. Elon is a smart dude.
All eyes on September now. I can't wait to see what happens with the Semi.
What happened?
2 things I think: Model X and insane demand beyond their expectations. The first event was in the throes of Model X production hell and it soon became apparent that new features should be in later versions of new cars to help the ramp. Thus, no spaceship interior, HUD, etc.
The 3 demand was also crazy even with the minimal reveal. Reality set in that it made no sense to push sales on this car as it will sell itself. As Elon always says, what's the point in selling 2019 and 2020 production slots for the 3 now? All that does is delay an interested buyer's purchase for a couple years when they could instead get in a CPO S/X or step up to a new one.
Hence the S/X campaign and the constant talking down of the 3. Demand is never going to be a problem for Tesla, production is. When you have limited production capacity you talk up the high margin cars. Elon is a smart dude.
All eyes on September now. I can't wait to see what happens with the Semi.
Yuri_G
Member
First impressions from The Verge.
Tesla Model 3 first drive: this is the car that Elon Musk promised
Tesla Model 3 first drive: this is the car that Elon Musk promised
Drumheller
Active Member
ok, who here thought the event was great? Very few details about the Model 3. No talk of the configurator going live on the website. Most of the details given to Electrek were not discussed in the event.
Were the 30 delivered tonight all long range models?
No mention of the keycards / mobile app.
Were the 30 delivered tonight all long range models?
No mention of the keycards / mobile app.
bdy0627
Active Member
Hard to guess short term stock moves but I wouldn't think this would have much effect on the share price at this point. Other than the long range version, which was highly speculated, this was all very much expected. Looks like a great car as we all anticipated but no unexpected news at this point.
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