2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[goinfraftw]

Anyone else tear up a little bit? It's beautiful to watch this company grow up and solve the problems it's solving.

 

[vgrinshpun]

There were few members commenting on the lack of expected new information coming out of the Model 3 reveal. Aside from the potential for some surprise regarding the autonomy (very unlikely at this time imo) another hugely important and, I believe, widely overlooked spec that I personally dying to know is ... Model 3 weight. I expect it to be on par with the comparable premium compact sedans, which, if comes true, will be huge. This is key for two fundamental reasons.

1. Financially, the success of Model 3 will depend on ability of Tesla to get to the Model 3 cost of manufacturing reductions that they planned. The 20% reduction in weight of Model 3 over Model S is a key metric addressed by Elon many times. So getting to weight of less than 3,500 lbs for a base variant would be an indication/proof that Tesla indeed got there cost-wise and will bode very well for the company finances going forward.
   
   
2. In terms of competitiveness against performance peers, Model S had to overcome a several hundred pounds weight disadvantage. Model S performed this very challenging task admirably, competing very well against peers (low weight is paramount for overall dynamics of a car, including balance, handling, performance, etc.). Now just imagine what is possible if Model 3 completely closes the weight gap against the performance ICE peers. Although I doubt that Market will immediately care, this is going to be huge. If this indeed pans out, just watch for the accolades to start pouring in from the automotive media.

So I personally am really excited to see Model 3 weight to be revealed as part of the package that includes key specifications.

So, the standard version of Model 3 came a little heavier than I expected but is matching the weight of BMW 330i almost to the tee: 3549lbs for Model 3 vs 3541lbs for the BMW 330i. There is NO EV weight penalty! This is not going to move stock but is huge nevertheless.

 

[bdy0627]

total agree. I think the 310 miles for $44k is going to outsell the $35k version, at least in the US. I wouldn't be surprised if ASP is closer to $50k for the first two years.

if the stock drops I plan on accumulating more. this is a huge de-risking event even if the next 3-6 months are rocky. $500m in deposits and continued guidance on 20k / month production sometime in next 6 to 9 months.

if the ASP next year is $50k with 300k deliveries + $90k for the S+X with 100k deliveries that puts revenue at $24B in 2018. No way that is baked into a $55B market cap.

Now this reminds me of 2012 when the company was trading at just a few billion in market cap AFTER the S had launched.

Yeah, I tend to agree that buying somewhere around the bottom over the next several months will prove to be very wise. Be patient, the bottom probably will not occur next week. Perhaps add shares at several points when it looks like the bottom. Don't be impatient, thinking this thing is just going up from here and you've got to get more now or you'll miss it. There's a very very low probability of that being the case.

 

[austinEV]

The high option price makes me happy. I always wanted an average ASP of 45k-50k. That is a much easier lift in business terms. The sales will come.

 

[AlMc]

It's funny - with all the talk in the aftermath of the initial event there was tons of hype about a "mindblowing" second reveal, super next level, will be tons of reservations afterwards, etc. Instead, we get about the lowest key event ever.

What happened?

2 things I think: Model X and insane demand beyond their expectations. The first event was in the throes of Model X production hell and it soon became apparent that new features should be in later versions of new cars to help the ramp. Thus, no spaceship interior, HUD, etc.

The 3 demand was also crazy even with the minimal reveal. Reality set in that it made no sense to push sales on this car as it will sell itself. As Elon always says, what's the point in selling 2019 and 2020 production slots for the 3 now? All that does is delay an interested buyer's purchase for a couple years when they could instead get in a CPO S/X or step up to a new one.

Hence the S/X campaign and the constant talking down of the 3. Demand is never going to be a problem for Tesla, production is. When you have limited production capacity you talk up the high margin cars. Elon is a smart dude.

All eyes on September now. I can't wait to see what happens with the Semi.

Totally agree. My short synopsis takeaway was 'Buy a 75D' today as you will have to wait for a long range 3 that once you add options will sell for just under the 75D. They are making money on the S now which is critical for their long range plans.

 

[D-egg-O]

For those of you disappointed with the live stream, temper down your expectations a bit please. I loved it. 300+ mi. range is awesome. They had the employees in the crowd front and center. The speaking was not great, but that's always Tesla. They speak from the heart.

edit: apparently words are hard.

 

[Drumheller]

Motortrend

Exclusive: Tesla Model 3 First Drive Review - Motor Trend

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Hard to guess short term stock moves but I wouldn't think this would have much effect on the share price at this point. Other than the long range version, which was highly speculated, this was all very much expected. Looks like a great car as we all anticipated but no unexpected news at this point.

It's all down to the production ramp at this point.

I do not expect TSLA to move significantly based on news or even upcoming quarterly earnings. Execution is what everyone will be watching.

 

[bdy0627]

It's funny - with all the talk in the aftermath of the initial event there was tons of hype about a "mindblowing" second reveal, super next level, will be tons of reservations afterwards, etc. Instead, we get about the lowest key event ever.

What happened?

2 things I think: Model X and insane demand beyond their expectations. The first event was in the throes of Model X production hell and it soon became apparent that new features should be in later versions of new cars to help the ramp. Thus, no spaceship interior, HUD, etc.

The 3 demand was also crazy even with the minimal reveal. Reality set in that it made no sense to push sales on this car as it will sell itself. As Elon always says, what's the point in selling 2019 and 2020 production slots for the 3 now? All that does is delay an interested buyer's purchase for a couple years when they could instead get in a CPO S/X or step up to a new one.

Hence the S/X campaign and the constant talking down of the 3. Demand is never going to be a problem for Tesla, production is. When you have limited production capacity you talk up the high margin cars. Elon is a smart dude.

All eyes on September now. I can't wait to see what happens with the Semi.

I totally agree. The Semi event is really intriguing. Also, Tesla seems to do a more impressive job with the initial idea event. These handover/reveal events have been largely anti-climactic. It is pretty silly now to think back to Musk talking about the mindblowing 2nd reveal, etc... In reality, as far as the M3 goes, the initial event last year was the mindblowing one. This was pretty mild tonight. Last year's event felt wayyyyy more historic to me. You nailed it with the demand factor. With so much demand and so little production at this point, Tesla doesn't need or want any more mindblowing selling of the M3. At this point, it's all about the ramp period.

 

[larmor]

Fantastic for a publicly owned company to produce a 35,000 dollar Ev. I'm glad they didn't offer a two second car with the kitchen sink to make all the naysayers happy it is better to make a car that will sell and make a profit on it.

 

[RobStark]

Other small details: the Model 3 doesn't have automatically extending door handles (you have to push the handles in on the left, and pull from the right, which might be an issue for people with small hands).

Michael Jordan and Rob Stark can open Model 3 doors with one hand.

 

[bdy0627]

ok, who here thought the event was great? Very few details about the Model 3. No talk of the configurator going live on the website. Most of the details given to Electrek were not discussed in the event.

Were the 30 delivered tonight all long range models?
No mention of the keycards / mobile app.

Great points! None of that "cool" stuff was even mentioned. It's a shame because we all want all those details about the M3. Apparently, Tesla still doesn't want to "sell" the 3 since they can't supply it yet. But, that it's still disappointing not to hear about those things. The only truly new stuff I heard was the standard vs long range versions with some basic specs there. The interior was almost completely blown off.

 

[tinm]

WHOA.Model 3 comes with only 100K mi warranty on small battery and 120K mi warranty on long range battery?! That's it??

After 8-yr unlimited mile warranty on S battery?!

Wow that is a shocker. Maybe a showstopper.

 

[austinEV]

I totally agree. The Semi event is really intriguing. Also, Tesla seems to do a more impressive job with the initial idea event. These handover/reveal events have been largely anti-climactic. It is pretty silly now to think back to Musk talking about the mindblowing 2nd reveal, etc... In reality, as far as the M3 goes, the initial event last year was the mindblowing one. This was pretty mild tonight. Last year's event felt wayyyyy more historic to me. You nailed it with the demand factor. With so much demand and so little production at this point, Tesla doesn't need or want any more mindblowing selling of the M3. At this point, it's all about the ramp period.

Oh we read so much into that (I hopped on the HUD train, full disclosure). What he meant was "when you see the long wood simple dash you will think it's cool". That's it. It's an important lesson to tuck in your "Elon" file for the next time we start speculating.

 

[bdy0627]

For those of you disappointed with the live stream, temper down your expectations a bit please. I loved it. 300+ mi. range is awesome. They had the employees in the crowd front and center. The speaking was not great, but that's always Tesla. They speak from the heart.

edit: apparently word are hard.

The 300 mile long range version is awesome!

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Motortrend

Exclusive: Tesla Model 3 First Drive Review - Motor Trend

"The ride is Alfa Giulia (maybe even Quadrifoglio)–firm, and quickly, I’m carving Stunt Road like a Sochi Olympics giant slalomer, micrometering my swipes at the apexes. I glance at Franz—this OK? “Go for it,” he nods. The Model 3 is so unexpected scalpel-like, I’m sputtering for adjectives.

Have I ever driven a more startling small sedan? I haven’t. At speed, it gains a laser-alertness I haven’t encountered before. By happenstance, associate road test editor Erick Ayapana had penciled me into a 2.0-liter Alfa Romeo Giulia to get here, and it feels like a wet sponge by comparison. "

It sounds like we have a winner.

 

[D-egg-O]

Motortrend

Exclusive: Tesla Model 3 First Drive Review - Motor Trend

Thank you for posting this. This is a great resource.

 

[vgrinshpun]

So, the standard version of Model 3 came a little heavier than I expected but is matching the weight of BMW 330i almost to the tee: 3549lbs for Model 3 vs 3541lbs for the BMW 330i. The NO EV weight penalty! This is not going to move stock but is huge nevertheless.

And here it goes: as I predicted, the accolades start to pour in. Motor Trend:

What’s blanching, though, is the car’s ride and handling. If anybody was expecting a typical boring electric sedan here, nope. The ride is Alfa Giulia (maybe even Quadrifoglio)–firm, and quickly, I’m carving Stunt Road like a Sochi Olympics giant slalomer, micrometering my swipes at the apexes. I glance at Franz—this OK? “Go for it,” he nods. The Model 3 is so unexpected scalpel-like, I’m sputtering for adjectives. The steering ratio is quick, the effort is light (for me), but there enough light tremble against your fingers to hear the cornering negotiations between Stunt Road and these 235/40R19 tires (Continental ProContact RX m+s’s). And to mention body roll is to have already said too much about it. Sure, that battery is low, way down under the floor. But unlike the aluminum Model S, the Tesla Model 3 is composed of steel, too, and this car’s glass ceiling can’t be helping the center of gravity’s height. Nearly-nil body roll? Magic, I’m telling you. Magic. And this is the single-motor, rear-wheel-drive starting point. The already boggled mind boggles further at the mention of Dual Motor and Ludicrous.

 

[bdy0627]

For those of you disappointed with the live stream, temper down your expectations a bit please. I loved it. 300+ mi. range is awesome. They had the employees in the crowd front and center. The speaking was not great, but that's always Tesla. They speak from the heart.

edit: apparently word are hard.

I'm a little surprised Tesla let the Bolt win in terms of range at the standard level, just from a hubris perspective. I expected 240+. But, the Bolt can't do 300+ but the M3 can. And, if you buy that version, Tesla will profit more.

 

[Hogfighter]

It's funny - with all the talk in the aftermath of the initial event there was tons of hype about a "mindblowing" second reveal, super next level, will be tons of reservations afterwards, etc. Instead, we get about the lowest key event ever.

What happened?

2 things I think: Model X and insane demand beyond their expectations. The first event was in the throes of Model X production hell and it soon became apparent that new features should be in later versions of new cars to help the ramp. Thus, no spaceship interior, HUD, etc.

The 3 demand was also crazy even with the minimal reveal. Reality set in that it made no sense to push sales on this car as it will sell itself. As Elon always says, what's the point in selling 2019 and 2020 production slots for the 3 now? All that does is delay an interested buyer's purchase for a couple years when they could instead get in a CPO S/X or step up to a new one.

Hence the S/X campaign and the constant talking down of the 3. Demand is never going to be a problem for Tesla, production is. When you have limited production capacity you talk up the high margin cars. Elon is a smart dude.

All eyes on September now. I can't wait to see what happens with the Semi.

The 'hype' aftermath from the initial unveil was created by EM himself. I'm disappointed that somewhere along the way, he didn't spend more effort readjusting expectations. Spaceship feel? Unveil Pt. 2? This was not an unveil.

I believe that they were smart in not loading up the 3 with new/great tech. Just bummed that he sounded a little like PT Barnum. Commence the dagger throws....